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  • #4,641
  • Nov 18, 2012 7:10am Nov 18, 2012 7:10am
Quoting KarlfromHU
My watchlist. Like every time, i would be happy for any comments.
(I'm also on the UsdJpy daily, and NzdChf 4h chart, but some of you attached them before).

Cheers!
Hey Karl,
why do i think you measure your FTA looking how far is your stop and not using what the market shows you?
The FTA is where the space runs out and not where you are at least 1:1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EDIT : the real FTA is where the million arrows point

You can tell me again where the FTA is on your PLN chart

EDIT2 : Your FTAs are TA for sure, but the first letter in 'F'TA means FIRST. And they are definitely not the first.
  • #4,642
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:53am Nov 18, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Rust
Hey Karl,
why do i think you measure your FTA looking how far is your stop and not using what the market shows you?
The FTA is where the space runs out and not where you are at least 1:1.
Attachment

EDIT : the real FTA is where the million arrows point

You can tell me again where the FTA is on your PLN chart

EDIT2 : Your FTAs are TA for sure, but the first letter in 'F'TA means FIRST. And they are definitely not the first.
Thanks Rust!

Maybe you're right, and i tried to find a reason to put my FTA at least 1:1. What's your opinion generally, these are good setups, I just have problem with the trade managing? About the UsdSgd....what's your opinion to enter here and don't wait for the rounded retest?

Here is the UsdPln:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdplnno2. -A-.jpg Size: 124 KB
  • #4,643
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:32am Nov 18, 2012 9:32am
Quoting KarlfromHU
My watchlist. Like every time, i would be happy for any comments.
(I'm also on the UsdJpy daily, and NzdChf 4h chart, but some of you attached them before).

Cheers!
Hey Karl,

this are not valid setups imo. You need clearly setups to trade successful consistently. Don't try to see a setup in every chart. It should jump right of the screen to you and scream: "Karl, i am the sexiest RR that you ever seen, please trade me! " .

Less trades, more quality setups--> more pleasure.

See my chart below...(Sorry for my bad English)

BTW Rusty gives you already an excellent answer as i see now!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdpln -A-.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #4,644
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:15am Nov 18, 2012 10:15am
Quoting bullzeye
Hey Karl,

this are not valid setups imo. You need clearly setups to trade successful consistently.
Attachment
Thanks Bulzeye,

I think i understood you. So the UsdPln and the AudNzd were already made the rounded retest a bit higher than my level (blue line in each chart), and too late to join to this party. Your reminder about the PPz's helped a lot to understand this situation. The UsdSgd looks valid for you?
  • #4,645
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:42am Nov 18, 2012 10:42am
Quoting bullzeye
Hey Karl,

this are not valid setups imo. You need clearly setups to trade successful consistently. Don't try to see a setup in every chart. It should jump right of the screen to you and scream: "Karl, i am the sexiest RR that you ever seen, please trade me! " .

Less trades, more quality setups--> more pleasure.

See my chart below...(Sorry for my bad English)

BTW Rusty gives you already an excellent answer as i see now!

Attachment

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post5408324

Regarding your "PPZ are not straight, thin lines. They are AREAS, please dont forget that" comment.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,646
  • Nov 18, 2012 10:58am Nov 18, 2012 10:58am
Quoting KarlfromHU
Thanks Rust!

Maybe you're right, and i tried to find a reason to put my FTA at least 1:1. What's your opinion generally, these are good setups, I just have problem with the trade managing? About the UsdSgd....what's your opinion to enter here and don't wait for the rounded retest?

Here is the UsdPln:
UsdSgd is a little bit different. I can't tell what is right or wrong in the first place, cause everyone has different view and i can tell only my own view.
I like the USDSGD and i'm currently in it for a second time. About buttkiss vs RR it's up to you to do research and find which suits you best. My view is that playing the buttkiss is more riskier in terms of exposure to false breakouts. On the other hand the RR has no risk of falling into the trap of false breakout, but then you have fresh trouble areas ahead. In my opinion that's the reason that Tom likes the rounded retest to be round and accelerating into the level. Because when price shapes this way, it creates more space to play into. I don't know if i make some sense here... i hope i do.
So back to why i like the UsdSgd. I hope not to sound too confusing here, but here are the reasons:
1 - Bullish bias on the daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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At this point I was just waiting for a tip-off. I play breakouts without RR when i have more confluence. It could be breakout with an outside bar, it could be with a pinbar. Just something to add more chance to a true nature of the breakout.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This one i would not buy, if i have got no bias from the bigger picture. So here i am trading the bigger picture, not the pattern only by itself.
I already bought on retrace to the level and took profit at the most recent highs. When it went back to the level and bought it again and this time i am targeting higher - because of the bigger picture.

PS I really hope this is not too confusing. If so, just forget it.
  • #4,647
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:08am Nov 18, 2012 11:08am
In general, it's always better to find trades where you will be trading against cleaner areas, less congestion. Small consolidations on pointy lows/highs just near your entry could be a bitch.
  • #4,648
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:28am Nov 18, 2012 11:28am
My levels for the week, I'm sure we have a few of the same.
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  • #4,649
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:30am Nov 18, 2012 11:30am
Levels continued...
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  • #4,650
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:30am Nov 18, 2012 11:30am
Last
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  • #4,651
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:42am Nov 18, 2012 11:42am
Quoting Rust
PS I really hope this is not too confusing. If so, just forget it.
Inversely, i understand what you mean. And also, finally, i start to understand what does the divergence mean exactly. These kind of depth-analysis the most useful for me, so thanks for it!
  • #4,652
  • Nov 18, 2012 6:56pm Nov 18, 2012 6:56pm
Thoughts on this? Looks very SFP to me 1hr/4hr...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #4,653
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:09pm Nov 18, 2012 8:09pm
if it closes below, where would you set your entry? bottom of the previous candle? SL top of candle? Daily bias is up? how does this affect your decision?
  • #4,654
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:57am Nov 19, 2012 12:57am
Quoting sam0182
Thoughts on this? Looks very SFP to me 1hr/4hr...

Iam in. Put in my market order right when i saw the gap opening last night @81,261. SL@81,90 and TP@80,226. But iam not quite sure about the TP. It might be a bit too far. What do you think?
  • #4,655
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:32am Nov 19, 2012 2:32am
Quoting Mezzy
if it closes below, where would you set your entry? bottom of the previous candle? SL top of candle? Daily bias is up? how does this affect your decision?
Yeah, that's pretty much what I was looking at. SL a few pts over the top, entry pretty much at the price level shown on the chart.
  • #4,656
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:51am Nov 19, 2012 2:51am
Quoting sam0182
Thoughts on this? Looks very SFP to me 1hr/4hr...
I was watching that range too. I'm going to wait to see if we have a D1 sfp and try to enter on the h1. I'm no expert though.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,657
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:39am Nov 19, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Rust
As well as NZDCHF. These two are my favorite at the moment.
Attachment
I hope no one have tried to hold this for a bigger move.
1 - entry was hit on the very beginning of the start of the week. I don't open positions at that time. This one was just for the record /few bucks risk/.
2 - FTA was already met.
In this two conditions i find dangerous to try to "overstay your welcome"

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,658
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:02pm Nov 19, 2012 2:02pm
My First post.........

What would people think of this trade in NatGas....

is below market, obv would want it to get back there in a few days....

http://i608.photobucket.com/albums/t...exfactory1.jpg
  • #4,659
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:54pm Nov 19, 2012 2:54pm
Quoting Streetlight
My First post.........

What would people think of this trade in NatGas....

is below market, obv would want it to get back there in a few days....

http://i608.photobucket.com/albums/t...exfactory1.jpg
Looks like a great level to me, thanks for posting.
  • #4,660
  • Nov 19, 2012 7:49pm Nov 19, 2012 7:49pm
Kind of a blog post...

Well, I'm going to say that my first attempt at trading live has been an EXTREMELY rewarding experience. I've learned so much by finally taking the plunge and going live. The emotions I've felt have been a roller coaster, the stress has been enough to break most men. On the flip side, this is the most alive I have felt in regards to my professional life, I love this.

So my first shot and entrepreneurial ship has not been a success. I say it that way purposefully because it has also not been a failure. I have learned more about myself by putting it on the line than I thought possible, never in my life have I taken a dive like this until now.

It's time to go back to demo. Even though I have learned a ton that you cannot learn on demo, such as objectivity, loyalty to your position, and the human need to be right, there is still a lot I need to work out on demo.

I'm 100% not done, I plan on coming back for a second shot at live next year after I recover my assets. I invested 10000 and blew half of it. Definitely more than some could stomach, and is quite a bit for me, but I wasn't doing anything with that money other than letting it sit in savings. So this was totally worth the experience, in hindsight I should have probably started with the method below.

My approach next time once I feel I'm ready will be to start with 1,000 and if I'm positive for 3 months I will add another 1,000, and keep the process going until I have a month where I'm not in the black. When that happens, and I'm sure it will (or I'll blow up the 1,000 and go back to demo for more education/refinement) anyways if I go in the red for a month, I'll go back to demo for a month.

The emotional strain of trading live while losing caused me to trade like an idiot and I need to learn to temper that. I think the above idea will ease me into it. I'm definitely not giving up. Next time I'll get it better, then the next time I'll make it.

Until then, back to demo I go!
Thanks for all your support.
-Jeremy
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