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  • #14,201
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:31pm Nov 17, 2012 7:31pm
"Pair pushed higher off of the 200 day moving average and upper channel support."
http://www.littlefishfx.com/weekly-review-greece-is-back-and-everyone-is-cliff-diving/

The chart has the same daily uptrend channel like mine.
I don't use SMA and was not aware of "Pair pushed higher off of the 200 day moving average."

I feel more confident of my projection now.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,202
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:43pm Nov 17, 2012 7:43pm
Daily Fx has a bearish bias on the Aussie. The reason is TL break. I discussed the misplacing of LTL by a website earlier today.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,203
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:55pm Nov 17, 2012 7:55pm
"AUD/USD Slides Below Rising Trendline to Neutral Zone" (http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/audusd-slides-below-rising-trendline-to-neutral-zone/)
http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/audusd-slides-below-rising-trendline-to-neutral-zone/

This site has the same view like Daily FX. But, they used "Neutral Zone" to describe current level. Cannot disagree more with their view.
(http://www.fxtimes.com/technical-updates/audusd-slides-below-rising-trendline-to-neutral-zone/)
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,204
  • Edited 8:14pm Nov 17, 2012 8:02pm | Edited 8:14pm
After surfing a few Forex websites, I believe that most online Forex analyses are not any better than the messages in our forum. However, there is a possibility that some members were highly influenced by those websites and then posted similar opinions in our forum.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,205
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:28pm Nov 17, 2012 8:28pm
I have heard the breakout trading discussions in different forums. Obviously, it is a very popular trading method among Forex traders. I believe it has certain value but also has some drawbacks. For a large triangle, a trader has to wait outside of the triangle for a long time to get a breakout opportunity.

I would say using "Break In" concept may be more appropriate. Trade from outside in instead of trade from inside out. This way, there will be plenty of opportunities to trade inside of a triangle.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1353204626
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,206
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:40pm Nov 17, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Daily Fx has a bearish bias on the Aussie. The reason is TL break. I discussed the misplacing of LTL by a website earlier today.
Hi DB.

Nice to meet you. My name is Ken.

Question: Wellllll....wonderment: How can a RECENTLY...completely broken (Lower TF (H4?)) TL...trendline...get turned into a Channel with more weight, based on one (Friday low) touch?

Getting ready to post a couple charts...few minutes...just took some cookies out of the oven. Back in a few.

Nobody's right...nobody's wrong...may thy balance dictate where all stand, but...just trying to play along.
  • #14,207
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:50pm Nov 17, 2012 8:50pm
There are two possible scenarios that can happen with the aud/usd as daddy has mentioned. Based on what my charts and what I have been taught, I feel strongly that there will be a test of the broken trend line. I also feel that the test will fail and we will see the projected D extension of 1.0545. However, there is the possiblity that we can see a successful test of the trend line and then see the projected D extension of 1.0211.

I feel that we will see 1.0545 because of the fact that you can see it bounced of the 786. I was taught that the 786 is the absolute furthest you can see a retracement go before a reversal is coming. The fact that the 786 is below the trend line could just mean that the aussie is shifting channels. This week will tell us who is right and who is wrong. For this week, my outlook remains bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #14,208
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:11pm Nov 17, 2012 9:11pm
Quoting kenfen69
Hi DB.

Nice to meet you. My name is Ken.

Question: Wellllll....wonderment: How can a RECENTLY...completely broken (Lower TF (H4?)) TL...trendline...get turned into a Channel with more weight, based on one (Friday low) touch?

Getting ready to post a couple charts...few minutes...just took some cookies out of the oven. Back in a few.

Nobody's right...nobody's wrong...may thy balance dictate where all stand, but...just trying to play along.
Ken, welcome aboard. Whatever messages I posted were my opinions. You may post your views at anytime. The H4 LTL has less weight than the daily channel. This is the hierarchical issue. I was not saying they were wrong but I disagreed with their views. I welcome different opinions posted in this forum to get a balanced view for everyone's reference. -DB_
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,209
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:19pm Nov 17, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I welcome different opinions posted in this forum to get a balanced view for everyone's reference. -DB_
Thread! On a (collective) Forum.

Charts coming now.
  • #14,210
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:27pm Nov 17, 2012 9:27pm
Macro to Micro...

Each chart has the TF at top left. Everyone can figure out the colors associated with the TL's and when they first/last appear...


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Have a bonus chart to follow...

(I ate too many cookies...and they weren't cooked properly.)
  • #14,211
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:31pm Nov 17, 2012 9:31pm
In White...under the "One To Watch" category...inspired by DB... ... ...Could This Be the Birth of a Channel?

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If it stars Lindsey Lohan...I'm out!!!
  • #14,212
  • Edited 10:04pm Nov 17, 2012 9:34pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting dbutton1990
There are two possible scenarios that can happen with the aud/usd as daddy has mentioned. Based on what my charts and what I have been taught, I feel strongly that there will be a test of the broken trend line. I also feel that the test will fail and we will see the projected D extension of 1.0545. However, there is the possiblity that we can see a successful test of the trend line and then see the projected D extension of 1.0211.

I feel that we will see 1.0545 because of the fact that you can see it bounced of the 786. I was taught that...
I believe some people still cannot distinguish a channel and a diagonal. Let me use CHIKBEAR's chart with my red line TLs to explain what they are.

The red UTL and magenta LTL formed a H4 diagonal. The red UTL and red LTL formed a D1 channel. The hierarchical rank of a D1 channel is higher than a H4 diagonal. Ken mistakenly thought I meant a diagonal changed to a channel. Both H4 diagonal and D1 channel coexisted for a while. They are different elements in the charts.

You are right about the test of the magenta LTL. But, not sure about "I also feel that the test will fail and we will see the projected D extension of 1.0545." Why will the test fail? I know there is a probability; but I looked at the chart with EWP in mind. Currently we are witnessing the onset of wave C. This is the most powerful wave in a higher degree corrective wave. I firmly believe that the Aussie will test 1.05xx sooner than later.

Unlike most traders, I only trade AUDUSD. I watch and study the pair all the time except during sleeping hours. I cannot be right all the time but I feel confident about the next move.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353089487
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,213
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:51pm Nov 17, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting kenfen69
In White...under the "One To Watch" category...inspired by DB... ... ...Could This Be the Birth of a Channel?

Attachment


If it stars Lindsey Lohan...I'm out!!!
Ken thanks for your contributions. Because you are new in our forum, I would post some charts again for your reference. These charts are different from most experts' views including yours.

In the largest context, the Aussie is in a bearish channel. [Monthly/Weekly]

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352525455

In the meantime, it is in a bullish channel in a weekly context.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352526667

Also, it is in a bearish medium-term daily channel.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352517283

Finally, in a short-term bullish daily/H4 channel.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353089487

The red UTL and magenta LTL formed a H4 diagonal. The red UTL and red LTL formed a D1 channel. The hierarchical rank of a D1 channel is higher than a H4 diagonal. You mistakenly thought I meant a diagonal changed to a channel. Both H4 diagonal and D1 channel coexisted for a while. They are different elements in the charts.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,214
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:55pm Nov 17, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Unlike most traders, I only trade AUDUAD. I watch and study the pair all the time except during sleeping hours. I cannot be right all the time but I feel confident about the next move.
United Arab Dollars?

Typo...I know. I used to do the same with EU. Picked a pair...and got intimate. Very wise move.

Big changes since then, though. EU barely moves...then when it does...a tweet/twit (old-school sense...read:moron)) seems to be behind it. AU used to be at 0.75 in the not too distant past. AUD doesn't even get a weight in the USDX!!!

Monogamous intimacy (FX speaking) is a marvelous thing...but things do change (like people...where monogamy is a rare old jewel). Anyway...sidetracked there. I know little about you, DB...you seem to have been around for a while. I stopped in a couple times this week, though...and I had to look away. NOBODY knows where a bottom...or turn is...for certain...no matter how many counts they've done.

You obviously respect VERY fundamental, but oft overlooked, MM (money management) rules...and that's what I hope a lot of your readers take away from this week. Usually takes a couple account meltdowns to solidify the knowledge...but so be it.

Anyway...hello DB. Won't call you by your full screen name. I know another fella I call Bear on here, and you couldn't pay me enough to call you DaDDy!

Anyway...cheers. Snatch them pips!

k
  • #14,215
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:00pm Nov 17, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Ken thanks for your contributions. Because you are new in our forum, I would post some charts again for your reference. These charts are different from most experts' views including yours.
Adieu.

Pull and pray, Daddy...pull and pray.

Good luck.
  • #14,216
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:03pm Nov 17, 2012 10:03pm
In fact, the yellow arrow may not occur at all. The Aussie may be bounced off from the LTL and continues moving up. I have thought about this probability for a while. There is a reason behind my thinking. Will post my view after the dust of current poll settles.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352517283
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,217
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:12pm Nov 17, 2012 10:12pm
Quoting kenfen69
United Arab Dollars?

Typo...I know. I used to do the same with EU. Picked a pair...and got intimate. Very wise move.

Big changes since then, though. EU barely moves...then when it does...a tweet/twit (old-school sense...read:moron)) seems to be behind it. AU used to be at 0.75 in the not too distant past. AUD doesn't even get a weight in the USDX!!!

Monogamous intimacy (FX speaking) is a marvelous thing...but things do change (like people...where monogamy is a rare old jewel). Anyway...sidetracked there. I know little about...
Sorry for the typo. Most of the time I use the Aussie instead of AUDUSD. When I started trading the Forex markets, the Aussie was only 0.50 or 0.60. So, I have been trading for a while. Thanks for your comments.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,218
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:30pm Nov 17, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting Daytrader74
How much money she have? I can trade aussie for her
Do you realy want to know the fund that;s she gave me sir ?
just only 1.000 $ and there is only one bullet
  • #14,219
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:52pm Nov 17, 2012 10:52pm
Current poll results: 18/22
The sentiment in this forum is turning bullish. By Sunday night, I expect more votes for the Bull's 1.05xx than the Bear's 1.01xx.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353178949
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,220
  • Nov 18, 2012 12:02am Nov 18, 2012 12:02am
Quoting DaddyBear
In fact, the yellow arrow may not occur at all. The Aussie may be bounced off from the LTL and continues moving up. I have thought about this probability for a while. There is a reason behind my thinking. Will post my view after the dust of current poll settles.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352517283
The weekly channel matches above projection of continuation.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
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