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  • #14,141
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:53am Nov 17, 2012 9:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
Also, a TL should not be used alone. At least couple with a parallel TL to form a channel in order to exam the legitimacy of such a TL.

Other elements shall also be brought in to get a bigger picture and an impartial judgement.
The hierarchical order of market system places a channel higher than a diagonal. Two red TLs formed a channel while the magenta LTL and red UTL formed a diagonal.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1353089487
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,142
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:55am Nov 17, 2012 9:55am
Quoting dbutton1990
I stopped following websites along time ago. It's nice to get a second opinion. But if you have to follow someone else's trading advice and you are executing someone else's trading plan then you need more education on how the market works. IMO
Cannot agree with you more. Establish one's own concept of trading is crucial to his ability to master the trading and to become an independent thinker.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,143
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:05am Nov 17, 2012 10:05am
Quoting DaddyBear
"the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant"
I agree. But, the issue lies on the hierarchical order in the market system. When a trend line breaks, a move will follow. the extent of such a move is subject to the hierarchical rank of such TL.

For example, the red LTL has a higher rank than the magenta one.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353089487
There is one more reason to look into the hierarchical rank of trend lines. The diagonal has four contacts and it's completed. The red line channel has also four contacts as well so far, but it's not completed yet. Friday's more than 50 pips strong rebound will lead a quest of the 5th contact toward 1.05xx.

I have seen so many elements appears one after one to record the footprints of the Law of Market. But, so far, I don't see a strong argument from the bears. I am looking for a good debate next week. If in case my projection is wrong, I would admit it in this forum and move on.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,144
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:16am Nov 17, 2012 10:16am
Quoting HelloOz
i still dont understand why your client would want you to trade aussie knowing that you have no experience in this pair.

is she seeking for higher return ?
I don't know about that but she wants trade only ausie sir
  • #14,145
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:44am Nov 17, 2012 10:44am
Like the Bears, I also believe the Aussie will drop. The difference is that my rationales are different from theirs. In my case, I believe a final thrust toward 1.05xx is pending before a drop toward the parity can happen.

With this projection, I'd say the Bears have been right but too soon. At the backyard of Wall Street, a cemetery was set up for those who were right too soon in the markets. I hope no Bears, who have been right too soon, are buried there too soon.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,146
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:52am Nov 17, 2012 10:52am
Quoting alam88009
I don't know about that but she wants trade only ausie sir
alam, I believe you are good in trading the Euro. Trading is a concept which can be applied across the board. There is no much difference between trading the Euro and the Aussie IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,147
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:54am Nov 17, 2012 10:54am
Quoting DaddyBear
Like the Bears, I also believe the Aussie will drop. The difference is that my rationales are different from their. In my case, I believe a final thrust toward 1.05xx is pending before a drop toward the parity can happen.

With this projection, I'd say the Bears have been right but too soon. At the backyard of Wall Street, a cemetery was set up for those who were right too soon in the markets. I hope no Bears who have been right too soon won't be buried there too soon.
I am sorry cause I am new in this pair. including to my chart ausie syill going down my prediction next week
my reason cause now open price now is below than open price monthly it's mean monthly Candle is making a body candle sir
  • #14,148
  • Nov 17, 2012 10:58am Nov 17, 2012 10:58am
Quoting alam88009
I am sorry cause I am new in this pair. including to my chart ausie syill going down my prediction next week
my reason cause now open price now is below than open price monthly it's mean monthly Candle is making a body candle sir
This reason alone cannot be used to judge the next week's move. Your view is based on the monthly Candle. At the end of next month, your view may be fulfilled but before then a move up cannot be ruled out. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,149
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:02am Nov 17, 2012 11:02am
Quoting DaddyBear
This reason alone cannot be used to judge the next week's move. Your view is based on the monthly Candle. At the end of next month, your view may be fulfilled but before then a move up cannot be ruled out. IMO
Yes you might be right.I have to wait until next week but if she don't break or make a new candle above 1.0375 my opinion is still bearish sir
  • #14,150
  • Edited 11:58am Nov 17, 2012 11:07am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting DaddyBear
In regard to the breakout trading concept, I'd like to post DB's cartoons again.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1353174997

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353132370
The Bull got another question for the Bear .......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BREAKOUT-3.JPG Size: 85 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,151
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:08am Nov 17, 2012 11:08am
Quoting alam88009
Yes you might be right.I have to wait until next week but if she don't break or make a new candle above 1.0375 my opinion is still bearish sir
You are entitled to keep your view. Have a nice trading week ahead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,152
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:16am Nov 17, 2012 11:16am
Quoting DaddyBear
You are entitled to keep your view. Have a nice trading week ahead.
I am still don't understand in trade ausie couple days a go euro move up but ausie jump off the cliff

Ok I should learn more about ausie and in indonesia it;s midnight time to go to bed
see you soon. teach me more about ausie
lets make profit together sir
TY
Nite
  • #14,153
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:29am Nov 17, 2012 11:29am
Quoting alam88009
I am still don't understand in trade ausie couple days a go euro move up but ausie jump off the cliff

Ok I should learn more about ausie and in indonesia it;s midnight time to go to bed
see you soon. teach me more about ausie
lets make profit together sir
TY
Nite
IMO there is no co-relationship between these two pairs.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,154
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:33am Nov 17, 2012 11:33am
Trading the breakout is a good strategy but it is a lagging one. Particularly when using a higher TFs such as daily or weekly.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,155
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:49am Nov 17, 2012 11:49am
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bull got another question for the Bear .......
Finally ..............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BREAKOUT-4.JPG Size: 83 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,156
  • Nov 17, 2012 11:54am Nov 17, 2012 11:54am
Quoting DaddyBear
However, trend line is a very subjective matter. IMO a TL should be updated according to the reality of the market moves. A correct TL wouldn't be confirmed until everything is said and done. In this regard, an updated TL is more reliable than the previous one.

I have heard you mentioned trend line many times but never seen it. Not very sure which TL you pointed to. Would you mind post your chart to make your view clear?
I already have - in fact, it's also in your chart

BTW, I do see your rationale for being bullish - given the current 4 wave count on the daily chart - and the expectation of a 5th wave is not all that illogical.
  • #14,157
  • Nov 17, 2012 12:20pm Nov 17, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting maximmm
I already have - in fact, it's also in your chart

BTW, I do see your rationale for being bullish - given the current 4 wave count on the daily chart - and the expectation of a 5th wave is not all that illogical.
Thanks for your understanding. My projection may not be fulfilled at all but sharing opinions is the basis of this forum.

I wouldn't think it is all about the waves. A 5-point contacts would build the legitimacy of a channel or a diagonal. It is important not to trade a breakout before the 5th point of contact has been established. The rationale used by the Bears on the magenta diagonal was not 100% rational. IMO


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353089487
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,158
  • Nov 17, 2012 12:21pm Nov 17, 2012 12:21pm
My strategy for Sunday - wait for initial move higher or lower and if AUD goes higher, sell it, if it goes lower, buy it.
  • #14,159
  • Nov 17, 2012 12:26pm Nov 17, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting maximmm
My strategy for Sunday - wait for initial move higher or lower and if AUD goes higher, sell it, if it goes lower, buy it.
As mentioned last night, if a gap up occurs, it may not be filled completely. Hence, it may not be a good level to short at the open. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,160
  • Nov 17, 2012 12:31pm Nov 17, 2012 12:31pm
Currently, the Bull is leading the Bear by one vote only. As a bullish Bear, I would expect the Bulls gain upper hand on Sunday open. IMO


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353131918

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1352966071
daddybearforex. com
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