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  • #14,121
  • Edited 1:11am Nov 17, 2012 1:00am | Edited 1:11am
If the green line happens, then refer to the price in chart #2. But, that's only if.

Edit: Weekly charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklyaudusd1.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklyaudusd2.png Size: 20 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #14,122
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:13am Nov 17, 2012 1:13am
In the short-term:

The top red support in the first chart is about the .764 retrace in the second chart.

Daily
Hourly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyaudusd.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1Huadusd.png Size: 40 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #14,123
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:10am Nov 17, 2012 3:10am
Quoting alam88009
I am just play with open price in ausie and both side I made money yesterday and I don't know where to start make a trend line
On the Euro you know to draw a trend line. On the Aud you don't know??????.WOW
But you make money. You don't need a TL.
  • #14,124
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:22am Nov 17, 2012 3:22am
Quoting Tim_isoara
On the Euro you know to draw a trend line. On the Aud you don't know??????.WOW
But you make money. You don't need a TL.
Good question.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,125
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:31am Nov 17, 2012 3:31am
Quoting maximmm
Ah, Daddio, - the classic bottom vs top discussion. The main theme in such discussions is the definition of top and bottom. The same applies to high vs low.

Is AUD low now? Or is it high? Euro has been going down for weeks, while aud has been going up, is Euro too low or high, and is Aud too low or high? Or is it possible that euro is too low while aud is too high? Personally, I would never get too involved in such discussions simply because of the subjective definition of high vs. low.

In regards to 1.06 - it's a very important line...
Hmmm.Two different views but correct both.
  • #14,126
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:38am Nov 17, 2012 3:38am
Quoting GnarlyPips
If the green line happens, then refer to the price in chart #2. But, that's only if.

Edit: Weekly charts
Although it's hard to understand your charts, I have found they are very interesting.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,127
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:45am Nov 17, 2012 3:45am
Quoting DaddyBear
The new poll results: 16/18

There are more Bulls now. Please vote for the right choice based on your judgement. Don't be influenced by the messages posted in this forum.
18/19 now. The poll results are still neck and neck.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353131918
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,128
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:10am Nov 17, 2012 8:10am
Current Rate: 1.03405
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,129
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:37am Nov 17, 2012 8:37am
I checked out ActionForex website this morning. Now, I know it has had some influence on some people's views. There is nothing wrong to follow a website or a trader. However, I have found this site's view of the Aussie's next moves is shaky.

First all, the H4 LTL is incorrect. This has led the author to be on the bearish side.
Second, it does not use candles. The author overlooked the daily Doji/Hammer formed on Friday.
Third, the author ignored the fact that H4 RSI(14) has been diverging from the PA since 10/15. RSI is a better indicator than MACD to gauge the trend.

The author's bias toward 1.0235 is really questionable IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,130
  • Edited 9:10am Nov 17, 2012 8:56am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting DaddyBear
I checked out ActionForex website this morning. Now, I know it has had some influence on some people's views. There is nothing wrong to follow a website or a trader. However, I have found this site's view of the Aussie's next moves is shaky.

First all, the H4 LTL is incorrect. This has led the author to be on the bearish side.
Second, it does not use candles. The author overlooked the daily Doji/Hammer formed on Friday.
Third, the author ignored the fact that H4 RSI(14) has been diverging from the PA since 10/15. RSI is a better indicator than...
In regard to the daily candle, a Doji/Hammer was formed right on the LTL Friday. Even it has not been confirmed by the next candle due to the weekend, it has in fact established its historic status. Why? Simply because Monday's low won't be below 1.030. This is significant.

I believe candlestick charting has its root originated from ZEN. Why? Although ZEN was initiated from China during the 6th century, it has a deep rooted influence in Japanese's culture. I see candlestick charting a philosophy based on ZEN concept; therefore, every candle has its own meaning whether or not it is confirmed.

In Friday's case, a Doji with a very long bullish shadow sitting on the intersection of two LTLs was formed. This is the DNA I am looking into. Compounding with H4 ADX, I see a green plateau for the Bulls to enjoy the organic grass under the blue sky for a few nice days ahead.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,131
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:06am Nov 17, 2012 9:06am
IMO, a lot of websites and experts are BULLEARs. I have never been able to see a clear message from them at all. They always provide a two-way opinions.

I prefer to post my true beliefs in this forum and any other venues. There is nothing wrong to provide an one-way view. If my projection was wrong, I would make necessary adjustment later and move on.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342182564
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,132
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:17am Nov 17, 2012 9:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
I checked out ActionForex website this morning. Now, I know it has had some influence on some people's views. There is nothing wrong to follow a website or a trader. However, I have found this site's view of the Aussie's next moves is shaky.

First all, the H4 LTL is incorrect. This has led the author to be on the bearish side.
Second, it does not use candles. The author overlooked the daily Doji/Hammer formed on Friday.
Third, the author ignored the fact that H4 RSI(14) has been diverging from the PA since 10/15. RSI is a better indicator than...
My view lies solely in the break and the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant.
COT stats -

  1. EUR net short 84K vs 67K prior
  2. JPY net short 30K vs 40K prior
  3. GBP net long 8K vs 19K prior
  4. AUD net long 68K vs 60K prior
  5. CAD net long 66K vs 75K prior
  6. NZD unchanged at net long 19K

That too is very significant - not to mention SSI ^^

  • #14,133
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:20am Nov 17, 2012 9:20am
Current poll will be closed when the Aussie touches either 1,01xx or 1.05xx. Please vote for either one that you believe to be the next scenario. You may change your bias at any time prior to the close of the poll.

I see the possibility of closing the poll next week. The Aussie is near the mid-point of the range about 150 pips each way. Monday will bring a better picture of what direction will be.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353131918
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,134
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:25am Nov 17, 2012 9:25am
Quoting maximmm
My view lies solely in the break and the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant^^
However, trend line is a very subjective matter. IMO a TL should be updated according to the reality of the market moves. A correct TL wouldn't be confirmed until everything is said and done. In this regard, an updated TL is more reliable than the previous one.

I have heard you mentioned trend line many times but never seen it. Not very sure which TL you pointed to. Would you mind post your chart to make your view clear?
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,135
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:29am Nov 17, 2012 9:29am
Quoting maximmm
My view lies solely in the break and the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant.
COT stats -

  1. EUR net short 84K vs 67K prior
  2. JPY net short 30K vs 40K prior
  3. GBP net long 8K vs 19K prior
  4. AUD net long 68K vs 60K prior
  5. CAD net long 66K vs 75K prior
  6. NZD unchanged at net long 19K

That too is very significant - not to mention SSI ^^

COT may be good for medium term trading not for short term. Also, if AUD net long happens at the end of a bull run, I would give some credibility to it. But, when most people are so bearish now, the lagging COT would kick up a new sub-trend to the north. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,136
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:33am Nov 17, 2012 9:33am
Quoting maximmm
My view lies solely in the break and the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant.
COT stats -

  1. EUR net short 84K vs 67K prior
  2. JPY net short 30K vs 40K prior
  3. GBP net long 8K vs 19K prior
  4. AUD net long 68K vs 60K prior
  5. CAD net long 66K vs 75K prior
  6. NZD unchanged at net long 19K

That too is very significant - not to mention SSI ^^

BTW, everyone's view as to which indicators or data is more significant is different. However, there is a hierarchical order in the market system. COT is a lagging data at best. A Doji with a long bullish shadow sitting on an intersection of two LTLs is much more significant than anything else IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,137
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:38am Nov 17, 2012 9:38am
Also, a TL should not be used alone. At least couple with a parallel TL to form a channel in order to exam the legitimacy of such a TL.

Other elements shall also be brought in to get a bigger picture and an impartial judgement.
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,138
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:44am Nov 17, 2012 9:44am
Quoting maximmm
My view lies solely in the break and the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant.
COT stats -

  1. EUR net short 84K vs 67K prior
  2. JPY net short 30K vs 40K prior
  3. GBP net long 8K vs 19K prior
  4. AUD net long 68K vs 60K prior
  5. CAD net long 66K vs 75K prior
  6. NZD unchanged at net long 19K

That too is very significant - not to mention SSI ^^

"the confirmation of a break of a trendline. That is very significant"
I agree. But, the issue lies on the hierarchical order in the market system. When a trend line breaks, a move will follow. the extent of such a move is subject to the hierarchical rank of such TL.

For example, the red LTL has a higher rank than the magenta one.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353089487
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,139
  • Edited 12:00pm Nov 17, 2012 9:47am | Edited 12:00pm
In regard to the breakout trading concept, I'd like to post DB's cartoons again.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1353174997

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353132370
daddybearforex. com
  • #14,140
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:49am Nov 17, 2012 9:49am
Quoting DaddyBear
I checked out ActionForex website this morning. Now, I know it has had some influence on some people's views. There is nothing wrong to follow a website or a trader. However, I have found this site's view of the Aussie's next moves is shaky.

First all, the H4 LTL is incorrect. This has led the author to be on the bearish side.
Second, it does not use candles. The author overlooked the daily Doji/Hammer formed on Friday.
Third, the author ignored the fact that H4 RSI(14) has been diverging from the PA since 10/15. RSI is a better indicator...
I stopped following websites along time ago. It's nice to get a second opinion. But if you have to follow someone else's trading advice and you are executing someone else's trading plan then you need more education on how the market works. IMO
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
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