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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,601
  • Nov 12, 2012 8:37pm Nov 12, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: possible long setup based on TA and COT

hi shahab8b,

Am I right to say that the JPY COT numbers were from here?

JAPANESE YEN - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-097741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/06/12 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF JPY 12,500,000) OPEN INTEREST: 161,552
COMMITMENTS
24,966 65,070 696 126,094 40,947 151,756 106,713 9,796 54,839
Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #5,602
  • Nov 12, 2012 11:58pm Nov 12, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting TradeYourEdg
hi shahab8b,

Am I right to say that the JPY COT numbers were from here?

JAPANESE YEN - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-097741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/06/12 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS...
That's right: 65,070 (Short JPY Non-Commercial) -24,966 (Long JPY Non-Commercial)= 40,104 Short JPY (Long UJ) > the number you see on the chart
  • #5,603
  • Nov 13, 2012 12:03am Nov 13, 2012 12:03am
Quoting shahab8b
That's right: 65,070 (Short JPY Non-Commercial) -24,966 (Long JPY Non-Commercial)= 40,104 Short JPY (Long UJ) > the number you see on the chart
Sweet.. thank you.
Know Your Trading Edge and Trade It
  • #5,604
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:05pm Nov 14, 2012 2:05pm
Hi All,
As part of my subjective input to forming a view I like looking at correlations. Obviously tyere are way too many in this dumb "risk on/risk off" world we now live in. However sometimes, to me anyway, they leap off the page saying take notice. Below is the Aussie Dollar overlayed on the Blackrock resources ETF. Yes the AUD can spend months tearing off in an exageration of the ETF but it always seems to come back to reality. The jaws are pretty wide at the moment I think... and CFTC indicates 70% long AUD.... hmmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,605
  • Nov 14, 2012 2:09pm Nov 14, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
EU: possible long setup. Wait for the clear direction before entering long.
Hi shahab,

I really like your technical analysis. Do you mind sharing your trading strategy, when you enter and exit, also placement of stop loss?
Your assistance is much appreciated.
  • #5,606
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:23am Nov 15, 2012 9:23am
Quoting shahab8b
EU: possible long setup. Wait for the clear direction before entering long.
Weekly pivot just been broken.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,607
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:37am Nov 15, 2012 10:37am
HILARIOUS.

Quoting hlakhani
Hi shahab,

I really like your technical analysis. Do you mind sharing your trading strategy, when you enter and exit, also placement of stop loss?
Your assistance is much appreciated.
Hello.
  • #5,608
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:57am Nov 15, 2012 10:57am
Quoting hlakhani
Hi shahab,

I really like your technical analysis. Do you mind sharing your trading strategy, when you enter and exit, also placement of stop loss?
Your assistance is much appreciated.
Friendly advice

You read this entire thread more than twice. Then, you see his strategy. If you don't, ask him specific questions.

When you don't know the term or word int the thread, use "search" on top of the page. Do not ask him about it unless you don't get the answer from "search."

The point is, you don't just ask him for "strategy." His strategy is not something he is willing to teach for you, but he does not mind sharing with you. So, you need to "steal" his strategy while he is allowing you to do so.

You get the point? if not, see my motto above -- "monkey see monkey do" -- the best way to learn forex.

Good luck
  • #5,609
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:13pm Nov 15, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Friendly advice

You read this entire thread more than twice. Then, you see his strategy. If you don't, ask him specific questions.

When you don't know the term or word int the thread, use "search" on top of the page. Do not ask him about it unless you don't get the answer from "search."

The point is, you don't just ask him for "strategy." His strategy is not something he is willing to teach for you, but he does not mind sharing with you. So, you need to "steal" his strategy while he is allowing you to do so.

You get the point?...
Thanks forexgogo for ur friendly advice, i will go through the whole thread.

Emene - u should not discourage newbies by laughing on them, dont forget u must one of us in the past...
  • #5,610
  • Nov 15, 2012 5:49pm Nov 15, 2012 5:49pm
Quoting hlakhani
Thanks forexgogo for ur friendly advice, i will go through the whole thread.

Emene - u should not discourage newbies by laughing on them, dont forget u must one of us in the past...
Hi there,
I don't know what is your trading experience or how much you've read on technical analysis. If you are new to trading, I suggest you to read the babypips and finish the school there. Then you may want to read a book or two on technical analysis. My trading framework is what I posted at
Post 5,581 .You can go through my posts and see how I make my trading decisions. It's not a mechanical system that you want to copy, it's based on the framework I posted. The bottom line is that I believe in an adaptive design trading method, in which you switch to different trading method according to the market condition. Please feel free to ask questions when you go through my posts.
  • #5,611
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:21pm Nov 15, 2012 6:21pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there,
I don't know what is your trading experience or how much you've read on technical analysis. If you are new to trading, I suggest you to read the babypips and finish the school there. Then you may want to read a book or two on technical analysis. My trading framework is what I posted at
Post 5,581 .You can go through my posts and see how I make my trading decisions. It's not a mechanical system that you want to copy, it's based on the framework I posted. The bottom line is that I believe in an adaptive design trading method, in which...
Hi shahab, thanks for ur direction. I have been trading for an year now, but no luck with mechanical systems as you metioned.
So i m learning price action and supply/demand Concept. I will go through ur post.

Also i found u o n acezatte, do u recommend any post/book good for supplydemand concept..
  • #5,612
  • Nov 16, 2012 4:39am Nov 16, 2012 4:39am
This is an EURGBP trade I posted the setup at Saxon's thread earlier
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30625&page=759
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,613
  • Nov 19, 2012 9:33am Nov 19, 2012 9:33am
Hi shahab8b

I think I see a divergence on AU 4H. I'm thinking going short. Your thoughts? (yellow line=SR)

Thanks in advance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 186 KB
  • #5,614
  • Nov 19, 2012 5:48pm Nov 19, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Hi shahab8b

I think I see a divergence on AU 4H. I'm thinking going short. Your thoughts? (yellow line=SR)

Thanks in advance!
Hi, I usually use RSI (14) for divergence;however, you can use whatever works for you. The AU short setup you posted may work out, but I won't go short Aussie at the moment, more subjective than objective.
  • #5,615
  • Nov 19, 2012 5:58pm Nov 19, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi, I usually use RSI (14) for divergence;however, you can use whatever works for you. The AU short setup you posted may work out, but I won't go short Aussie at the moment, more subjective than objective.
Thank you for your thoughts! I haven't taken it due to news coming up soon.

I use stochastics instead of RSI... to me it's just much easier to read. And it works as good as RSI or MACD.

I was kinda surprised you talking about UCHF short at this point. I will be watching closely...
  • #5,616
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:12pm Nov 19, 2012 6:12pm
EJ: I'm posting this to document my own thoughts processes. It's forming a rising wedge (classic)/ending diagonal pattern (EW). The expected move is to the south;however, I expect it to be a surprise move to the upside. no positions for me at this moment, just watching.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,617
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:15pm Nov 19, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting Forexgogo
Thank you for your thoughts! I haven't taken it due to news coming up soon.

I use stochastics instead of RSI... to me it's just much easier to read. And it works as good as RSI or MACD.

I was kinda surprised you talking about UCHF short at this point. I will be watching closely...
I got in @ .9427, let's see how much it falls.
  • #5,618
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:17pm Nov 19, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting hlakhani
Hi shahab, thanks for ur direction. I have been trading for an year now, but no luck with mechanical systems as you metioned.
So i m learning price action and supply/demand Concept. I will go through ur post.

Also i found u o n acezatte, do u recommend any post/book good for supplydemand concept..
Most of the people talking about supply/demand say the same concept. So you will find lots of materials.
  • #5,619
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:19pm Nov 19, 2012 6:19pm
Let me post some of my charts I posted at Saxon's for my own thread.
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  • #5,620
  • Nov 19, 2012 6:28pm Nov 19, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
IBM: time to short? may be!
This is an update on IBM short which I posted couple of weeks ago. Now it's turning into a classic trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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