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AUD/USD

  • #56,461
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:12am Nov 15, 2012 10:12am
What a scary move starting 2 days ago since BOJ to weaken the Yen and Abe's comment to set IR below zero.

Looking at the charts I think this is what is happening:

1. Short AUD - Long USD - Short JPY.
2. Short NZD - Long USD - Short JPY.
3. Short AUD - Long EUR - Short JPY.

EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD +300 pips in 2 days. Expecting more to come in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and all Yen crosses.

I am not going to short EUR or long AUD for now.
  • #56,462
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:21am Nov 15, 2012 10:21am
Quoting Ken A
What a scary move starting 2 days ago since BOJ to weaken the Yen and Abe's comment to set IR below zero.

Looking at the charts I think this is what is happening:

1. Short AUD - Long USD - Short JPY.
2. Short NZD - Long USD - Short JPY.
3. Short AUD - Long EUR - Short JPY.

EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD +300 pips in 2 days. Expecting more to come in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and all Yen crosses.

I am not going to short EUR or long AUD for now.
Hi Ken,
I'm really glad to read this post. Do the same with UJ+CAD+CADJPy and you will be astonished by the total of pips that the market is offering us if we play this move smart...
See my post of this morning. As usual no one gave consideration. But that's good, the easiest pips are made when you trade something or an indea that others don't trade.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,463
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:28am Nov 15, 2012 10:28am
Quoting maximinus
Hi Ken,
I'm really glad to read this post. Do the same with UJ+CAD+CADJPy and you will be astonished by the total of pips that the market is offering us if we play this move smart...
See my post of this morning. As usual no one gave consideration. But that's good, the easiest pips are made when you trade something or an indea that others don't trade.
YES. Admittedly, I failed to see the trigger was YEN before the facts though I have been expecting Dollar Bullish and Yen Bearish. The rest are just money moving around to instruments that offers most gains.
  • #56,464
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:34am Nov 15, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Ken A
YES.

My views are Dollar Bullish and Yen Bearish. The rest are just money moving around that offers most gains.
You got it mate.
But we must always remember that the cross pairs have (that's one of their first duty) to respect tech levels. So when looking at yencross the first impression is that it's in a range. But not at all. It's going up, but step by step.
It's a pity that I don't have the swing or position traders mind setup. Other ways, i'll allot n lot for trading this idea and move it between these 3 pairs. One idea, same lot, but 3 vehicles ... ZE DREAM for swingers.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,465
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:39am Nov 15, 2012 10:39am
Quoting maximinus
You got it mate.
But we must always remember that the cross pairs have (that's one of their first duty) to respect tech levels. So when looking at yencross the first impression is that it's in a range. But not at all. It's going up, but step by step.
It's a pity that I don't have the swing or position traders mind setup. Other ways, i'll allot n lot for trading this idea and move it between these 3 pairs. One idea, same lot, but 3 vehicles ... ZE DREAM for swingers.
Long CAD/JPY is fine but don't go short USD/CAD (scalping is different story). I expect crude to stay below $85 for the rest of the year. Hopefully, my U/CAD longs will see the light + few hundred pips to offset the negative swap by the end of year or early next year.
  • #56,466
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:41am Nov 15, 2012 10:41am
Quoting maximinus
You got it mate.
But we must always remember that the cross pairs have (that's one of their first duty) to respect tech levels. So when looking at yencross the first impression is that it's in a range. But not at all. It's going up, but step by step.
It's a pity that I don't have the swing or position traders mind setup. Other ways, i'll allot n lot for trading this idea and move it between these 3 pairs. One idea, same lot, but 3 vehicles ... ZE DREAM for swingers.
youre doing your crosses manually? this is how i have to do it with futures
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,467
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:45am Nov 15, 2012 10:45am
Quoting Ken A
Long CAD/JPY is fine but don't go short USD/CAD (scalping is different story). I expect crude to stay below $85 for the rest of the year. Hopefully, my U/CAD longs will see the light + few hundred pips to offset the negative swap by the end of year or early next year.
You really got the idea . That's it 1000% : long the 3 pairs with different pace. That's done easily when you catch the corr between cad and cajpy.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,468
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:47am Nov 15, 2012 10:47am
Quoting redteamgo
youre doing your crosses manually? this is how i have to do it with futures
Hi redteam, what do you mean by "doing your crosses manually?" I don't understand ?
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,469
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:48am Nov 15, 2012 10:48am
Quoting maximinus
You really got the idea . That's it 1000% : long the 3 pairs with different pace. That's done easily when you catch the corr between cad and cajpy.
id really like to hear more about how you and ken are trading the yen on a day to day basis. I find its PA hard to read have never had much success with usdjpy
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,470
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:49am Nov 15, 2012 10:49am
Quoting maximinus
Hi redteam, what do you mean by "doing your crosses manually?" I don't understand ?
well.. for me to short eurcad, i have to go long usdcad and short eurusd in the correct unit proportions (5 contracts long cad, 4 short eur i think offhand??) to get the desired effect. same thing for any other cross pair based on a major. crosses have to be done manually
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #56,471
  • Nov 15, 2012 10:59am Nov 15, 2012 10:59am
Quoting redteamgo
well.. for me to short eurcad, i have to go long usdcad and short eurusd in the correct unit proportions (5 contracts long cad, 4 short eur i think offhand??) to get the desired effect. same thing for any other cross pair based on a major. crosses have to be done manually

be cautious, the USD/CAD seem not to be strong, and if it sits and idles you will be f$%^*!
  • #56,472
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:03am Nov 15, 2012 11:03am
Quoting redteamgo
id really like to hear more about how you and ken are trading the yen on a day to day basis. I find its PA hard to read have never had much success with usdjpy
I think that Ken is a swinger. I'm a daytrader and scalper. For the setup that we are discussing it's better to be a swinger like Ken. I can't support the idea of pullback, throwback, retrace...all these kind of stories.
I first get the idea that cadjpy will go north when it was at near 77.50. Today it's at near 81.00 so for a position trader that represent more than 300 pips. For a daytrader like me it represents less than 300, i'm roughly sure that in daytrading I have made less than 300 pips. But on other hand, I've made more profits in $ because in sclaping I can afford to take more risk in taking position with more lots. Some days I made near 40 pips with 2 to 3 lots, so i win by this way what i lose the other way.
So you can play either way, like Ken or me. But daytrading is really pain in the ass imo. I'd like to be a swinger. May be one day!!!!
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,473
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:04am Nov 15, 2012 11:04am
Quoting redteamgo
id really like to hear more about how you and ken are trading the yen on a day to day basis. I find its PA hard to read have never had much success with usdjpy
Hi Red, I don't rely on chart and indicator. Two days ago there's news BOJ to weaken YEN and Abe's comment to lower interest rate below zero then take the positions.
  • #56,474
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:07am Nov 15, 2012 11:07am
Quoting redteamgo
id really like to hear more about how you and ken are trading the yen on a day to day basis. I find its PA hard to read have never had much success with usdjpy
IMO audjpy and eurjpy are the easiest to trade. I stopped to trade GBPJPY, because more than 3 pips spread is too much for daytrading. And the most difficult is the cadjpy, but it respects pretty well the tech levels and the correlation between the 3 pairs.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,475
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:17am Nov 15, 2012 11:17am
Quoting redteamgo
well.. for me to short eurcad, i have to go long usdcad and short eurusd in the correct unit proportions (5 contracts long cad, 4 short eur i think offhand??) to get the desired effect. same thing for any other cross pair based on a major. crosses have to be done manually
i still don't catch it. You must know now, that I'm smart but not quick . So try again and be sure that I'll finish by catching what you try to explain me
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,476
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:21am Nov 15, 2012 11:21am
less than one hour bernanke gonna make a speech..any idea what the effect on AUD pair??
sorry for asking but i'm not a fundamentalist anyway...
  • #56,477
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:23am Nov 15, 2012 11:23am
Quoting joechien
less than one hour bernanke gonna make a speech..any idea what the effect on AUD pair??
sorry for asking but i'm not a fundamentalist anyway...
JPL and 100pipsaday are the guyz that you need...
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #56,478
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:46am Nov 15, 2012 11:46am
Quoting joechien
less than one hour bernanke gonna make a speech..any idea what the effect on AUD pair??
sorry for asking but i'm not a fundamentalist anyway...
QE3 is already priced in and markets are still selling off like crazy. The "fear" and the "unknown" factor of the Fiscal Cliff as well as problems in the Eurozone are the driving forces behind the "Risk Off" sentiment. I also heard this morning from another trader (Ken) that the Yen was the trigger which now has big money finding new places to go.

In regards to Ben Bernanke, I wouldn't expect anything he says this time to be very hawkish for the markets. Reason being, they aren't going to increase the purchasing and there shouldn't be any change in monetary policy.

Due to all of the heavy selling going on, I wouldn't be surprised to see another sell off if he says ANYTHING that could be perceived as "bad" for the markets. If market moves up for some reason, I would just look to sell the fade...

USD Bullish until AT LEAST the end of the year.

The above is only my opinion.
  • #56,479
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:14pm Nov 15, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
QE3 is already priced in and markets are still selling off like crazy. The "fear" and the "unknown" factor of the Fiscal Cliff as well as problems in the Eurozone are the driving forces behind the "Risk Off" sentiment. I also heard this morning from another trader (Ken) that the Yen was the trigger which now has big money finding new places to go.

In regards to Ben Bernanke, I wouldn't expect anything he says this time to be very hawkish for the markets. Reason being, they aren't going to increase the purchasing and there shouldn't be any...
thanks for the enlightenment. even i'm not fully understand..at least i prepared for what happen next..
  • #56,480
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:57pm Nov 15, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Exactly!

There was no reason to short before today and I posted why I got short. However, anybody who had sold AUD/USD ANYWHERE in the month of October would still be underwater AND would have tied up leverage which could have been used to make money on other pairs. It would have also allowed for less cash when price action gave us the go ahead to short the Aussie AT THE TOP.

Now I've got fresh shorts ready to ride this all the way down!
Spot on.
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