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AUD/USD

  • #56,441
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:07am Nov 15, 2012 6:07am
Quoting maximmm
Sounds good. I can see the pair retesting the broken uptrend line at 1.0365/70 prior to resumption of the downward move. I suspect that's when aud will close below 1.033

im looking for a test of 1.04
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #56,442
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:14am Nov 15, 2012 6:14am
Quoting blue_z_zz
im looking for a test of 1.04
during what time frame?
  • #56,443
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:15am Nov 15, 2012 6:15am
Quoting magicgate
during what time frame?
hourly
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #56,444
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:24am Nov 15, 2012 6:24am
5 min charts consolidating between 1.0330 & 1.0340 a break of 40 will confirm short term retracment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 90 KB
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #56,445
  • Nov 15, 2012 6:33am Nov 15, 2012 6:33am
Quoting akramo
AUDUSD is in tandem with S&P – Low is incomplete; it breaks its yearly STL, nevertheless not yet forcefully. The S&P should drag it further to a better supply level. As long as closing remain below YST high, the bearish scenario will remain intact. Selling a rally towards 10400 should be the tactic, aiming @ 10270.

Yeah I like this idea. We've only come back 23.6 of the October rally and the last couple of times the market made a special effort to come down to this price was on September 25 and 28, ie: 100 pip moves to 10330 or so. In both cases there were significant pull backs. Seeing as I'm reading September as still being very much in action, I'm still bearish, but I'd be looking for a better price.

If it winds up not going back then there's a boat I've well and truly missed already and I'll wait for a retrace back to here.
  • #56,446
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:10am Nov 15, 2012 7:10am
Unemployment claims coming in in less than half an hour. It seems that even if claims come in better than expected, if it's more claims than last time, it will have a negative affect on the USD. 1.035 may be a target for me. I usually don't trade news, so.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,447
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:24am Nov 15, 2012 7:24am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Unemployment claims coming in in less than half an hour. It seems that even if claims come in better than expected, if it's more claims than last time, it will have a negative affect on the USD. 1.035 may be a target for me. I usually don't trade news, so.
Gold is in an interesting place atm too. Bad news and a switch to treasuries or good news for risk on and it exposes 1700 again. Whatever the result reaching that level could make for timing an exit on wherever your currency trade is at?
  • #56,448
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:25am Nov 15, 2012 7:25am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Unemployment claims coming in in less than half an hour. It seems that even if claims come in better than expected, if it's more claims than last time, it will have a negative affect on the USD. 1.035 may be a target for me. I usually don't trade news, so.
Gnarly... be careful.... if unemployment claims increase... meaning bad US news... may not necessarily mean Dollar weakness... it may perhaps bring up Dollar Strength due to Global Concerns which goes for the Risk-Off we've been hearing since yesterday....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #56,449
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:29am Nov 15, 2012 7:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
Gnarly... be careful.... if unemployment claims increase... meaning bad US news... may not necessarily mean Dollar weakness... it may perhaps bring up Dollar Strength due to Global Concerns which goes for the Risk-Off we've been hearing since yesterday....
That's exactly what I was thinking... Especially because market is already in Risk Off mode.
  • #56,450
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:32am Nov 15, 2012 7:32am
Wow, 439k.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,451
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:33am Nov 15, 2012 7:33am
Quoting 100PipsADay
That's exactly what I was thinking... Especially because market is already in Risk Off mode.
actually i've been warning this since EURo was up at 1.3 GBPUSD was up at 1.62 and AUDUSD up at 1.0450

the fact is S&P cant keep on rising.... especially when its all QE money being pumped in
the value of the dollar still depreciated....
But the WORLD is suffering....

Europe was a hoax... now germany in the depths....

i was warning that the Dollar is going to go UP and the S&P Down..... and i said why S&P down because S&P is being manipulated but the Dollar cant..... Dollar is driven by pure demand and supply....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,452
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:34am Nov 15, 2012 7:34am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Wow, 439k.
and look what AUDUSD is doing.... not bounce... but diving....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,453
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:39am Nov 15, 2012 7:39am
Quoting fxtyrant
and look what AUDUSD is doing.... not bounce... but diving....
The bottom red support hasn't been broken as of yet. If it goes, then that surge of momentum I've been talking about will be kicking in full gear here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dailyaudusd.png Size: 26 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,454
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:46am Nov 15, 2012 7:46am
Usd/Hkd is related, I feel.

4H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4husdhkd.png Size: 21 KB
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,455
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:48am Nov 15, 2012 7:48am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Usd/Hkd is related, I feel.

4H

dude the USD HKD (i know very well since im from HK)
is pegged....
it will remain at a range witha +/- x% range....

that pair doesnt move up or down much..... but there are news of Hong Kong easing their currency with the on going Dollar strength.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,456
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:52am Nov 15, 2012 7:52am
Quoting fxtyrant
dude the USD HKD (i know very well since im from HK)
is pegged....
it will remain at a range witha +/- x% range....

that pair doesnt move up or down much..... but there are news of Hong Kong easing their currency with the on going Dollar strength.....


Can you provide a source? For the peg?
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #56,457
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:00am Nov 15, 2012 8:00am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Can you provide a source? For the peg?
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/201...#axzz2CIeBOnfj
historically its pegged at 8 HKD to the dollar... but its been allowed to move freely within a range ... dont quite remember what the range is...

the reason for the HK dollar to stay pegged is because Hong Kong cannot survive by itself... Hong Kong doesnt produce anything... except services...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,458
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:22am Nov 15, 2012 9:22am
GU 4H update
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  • #56,459
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:31am Nov 15, 2012 9:31am
The analysis behind this one is daunting. Seems like this is going to develop into a steam roller downward. The trend shows decreasing inflation from 3.4-3.5% 2011 to 1.8% average 2012 . Last time this occurred 2008-2009 core inflation dropped 1.3% was around the time of crisis this year recorded 1.7% drop was larger that 2008's. US the same is happening but a unique situation has occurred where they have nowhere to cut and its only falling 1% on av. So as we progress here and inflation decreases as is the trend over the past few months Australia should cut where us rates wont and AUD/USD should have a narrowing Inflation rate differential and narrowing Interest rate differential. This should lead to a strong movement down in the aud/usd with mechanics of the carry trade being destroyed

On annual UK is down 2% CHF is actually showing deflation by 1% With the Euro actually staying strong dropping only .1% This could mean we will see strong disconnects and correlation may develop a risk off setup.
  • #56,460
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:38am Nov 15, 2012 9:38am
Quoting domino
The analysis behind this one is daunting. Seems like this is going to develop into a steam roller downward. The trend shows decreasing inflation from 3.4-3.5% 2011 to 1.8% average 2012 . Last time this occurred 2008-2009 core inflation dropped 1.3% was around the time of crisis this year recorded 1.7% drop was larger that 2008's. US the same is happening but a unique situation has occurred where they have nowhere to cut and its only falling 1% on av. So as we progress here and inflation decreases as is the trend over the past few months Australia...
Hold your horses. I thnk euro is far from being out of the woods. I anticipate euro to drop either from current levels or 100 pips higher, but it will go down, much like AUD.
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