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  • #13,601
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:01am Nov 15, 2012 1:01am
Quoting maximmm
15 more minutes

if aud is at 1.035 or lower, it's a confirmation
yet, if it's still at 1.0355 - might go up
Green light to go long imo
  • #13,602
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:02am Nov 15, 2012 1:02am
no confirmation -

still, I've placed sell orders below 1.034 - aud sucks at breaking down - perhaps it will do so at night time^^
  • #13,603
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:04am Nov 15, 2012 1:04am
Quoting HelloOz
Green light to go long imo
I dunno.... I don't think I'll be going long. I think aud is still pondering about its future^^

Will set sell orders below and that's that. If it goes up, I'll sell at higher levels
  • #13,604
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:08am Nov 15, 2012 1:08am
I do think a lot of shorts or longs will be trapped in the next move. Aud is simply gathering up longs/shorts to smash one of them to pieces^^
  • #13,605
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:14am Nov 15, 2012 1:14am
If you were to ask me, I would say aud will go down - much like euro, which recently broke an uptrend line and is ready to move 100 pips lower, but it's doing it, much like aud - unwillingly, clinging to the broken uptrend line - taking as many longs with it it can prior to dropping like a rock
  • #13,606
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:17am Nov 15, 2012 1:17am
I would stay away from longing this pair right now...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 11-15-2012.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #13,607
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:19am Nov 15, 2012 1:19am
Quoting Trade2Day
I would stay away from longing this pair right now...
I agree
  • #13,608
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:25am Nov 15, 2012 1:25am
Quoting Trade2Day
I would stay away from longing this pair right now...
Why?
  • #13,609
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:31am Nov 15, 2012 1:31am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Why?
Did you not see the arrow on the chart?!!! haha^^

Actually, despite all of the areas DB pointed out - There's an uptrend channel from 10/08 - this channel has been broken and the price is now below it - the two previous hour candles have bounced off it to the downside. That line will now be resistance. I believe the move down is imminent.

In fact, the areas DB pointed out as being supporting have also been broken down, though not decisively - given that I usually trade with lines, rather than areas/levels - a move through certain lines, whether up or down tells me that these lines are not seen as support/resistance by the banks.
  • #13,610
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:33am Nov 15, 2012 1:33am
I too am bearish. However after seeing the poll results above where 2/3 of traders are bearish versus bullish I might need to reconsider.
  • #13,611
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:35am Nov 15, 2012 1:35am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I too am bearish. However after seeing the poll results above where 2/3 of traders are bearish versus bullish I might need to reconsider.
Classic contrarian. Now that I can appreciate.

Happy Trades,
fxstir
  • #13,612
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:37am Nov 15, 2012 1:37am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I too am bearish. However after seeing the poll results above where 2/3 of traders are bearish versus bullish I might need to reconsider.
The problem is.... FF traders are a very small minority. You should look at the trader sentiment on forexpros or fxcm to get legit numbers.

Though if you want to go by this poll - well....
  • #13,613
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:37am Nov 15, 2012 1:37am
IMHO...psychology of trend for aud/usd from my observation is when the pair struggle to go down although usd is strong.. BULL.. vice versa . i might be wrong but i hope not
  • #13,614
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:39am Nov 15, 2012 1:39am
Quoting maximmm
Did you not see the arrow on the chart?!!! haha^^

Actually, despite all of the areas DB pointed out - There's an uptrend channel from 10/08 - this channel has been broken and the price is now below it - the two previous hour candles have bounced off it to the downside. That line will now be resistance. I believe the move down is imminent.
on daily and H4 we have up chanell valid 1.0325 if dont broke
  • #13,615
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:40am Nov 15, 2012 1:40am
Quoting maximmm
I agree
fine.
closed for +7pips..

i still believe it will go north

look, it retrace down to 88.8% fib..

  • #13,616
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:40am Nov 15, 2012 1:40am
Quoting Tim_isoara
on daily and H4 we have up chanell valid 1.0325 if dont broke
  • #13,617
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:40am Nov 15, 2012 1:40am
Quoting Tim_isoara
on daily and H4 we have up chanell valid 1.0325 if dont broke
I can assure you, the 4 hour chart uptrendline has been broken
  • #13,618
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:41am Nov 15, 2012 1:41am
Quoting maximmm
The problem is.... FF traders are a very small minority. You should look at the trader sentiment on forexpros or fxcm to get legit numbers.

Though if you want to go by this poll - well....
Very true. I believe this pair probably has a majority of retail traders going long for its positive swap. As you point out, the poll on this thread is a small sample size.
  • #13,619
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:41am Nov 15, 2012 1:41am
Quoting HelloOz
fine.
closed for +7pips..

i still believe it will go north

look, it retrace down to 88.8% fib..

...
Chart,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #13,620
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:44am Nov 15, 2012 1:44am
Quoting iskandarler
IMHO...psychology of trend for aud/usd from my observation is when the pair struggle to go down although usd is strong.. BULL.. vice versa . i might be wrong but i hope not
That can be a good indication. However from a technical standpoint downward looks more likely at the moment (from my perspective).
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