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$1000 into $1mil (100,000% per year), stop making trading complicated

  • #161
  • Nov 14, 2012 12:44pm Nov 14, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting Arnold49
Hi Dee, what stoch settings do you use?
in the past I used 12,3,3
thanks,
Steve.
8,3,3
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #162
  • Nov 14, 2012 12:52pm Nov 14, 2012 12:52pm
R2R. I have disregarded HD in the past, so you have much more experience of it than I. I have noticed that HD forms much more gradually than RD to the extent that it can fake you out into entering far too early. Screenshot attached. As you can see in this example from tuesday. 1 HD took 14 bars to form each one a potential losing trade, for the inexperienced eye. Is there a way to avoid being fakedout by this sort of formation of HD. Thanks for your help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HD Fakeout.png Size: 43 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #163
  • Nov 14, 2012 1:04pm Nov 14, 2012 1:04pm
Subscribed!
  • #164
  • Nov 14, 2012 4:36pm Nov 14, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
also i may start using stochastics as they have a distinct advantage over RSI

see here

http://www.babypips.com/school/momentum-tricks.html

its much easier to see confirmation of a divergence using stochastics
Great thread R2R.

I trade Divergences too and I personally like your view of the market.
To the naysayers sit back and watch the man go to the moon and back (do not ask for moon rock as proof lol).

I started with RSI and a RSI/Stochastics combo but now I use DeMarker -it's razor sharp at default settings no false signals. I still retain the Stochs for Divergence spotting and basic entry signal.

The sweetest thing about divergence is that when you enter a trade on a Regular or hidden divergence most times you'll get an opposing divergence to warn you to opt out (if it's a big move the opposing divergence may just be a pause)

Didn't just trade today but should be back in action soon.

Here's a chart of the 7th Nov, see divergence and counter divergence at play.

Enjoy.


Intrepid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: [EURJPY,M5]_2012-11-14_21-59-17-MULTIPLE_DIVERGENCES.png Size: 99 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #165
  • Nov 14, 2012 6:42pm Nov 14, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
dont ask me why it works, it just does. probably because its one of the primary indicators big money uses. any indicator is only considered powerful if others trade it who move the market
It's not because the heavyweight traders specifically trade divergences, but more because it takes time for the heavyweights to unwind their huge positions, causing a slowing down of price movement, before it changes direction. Because of the their underlying calculation, oscillators like stochastic and RSI measure rates of change, and hence change direction during this slowing down period, giving them a potential 'predictive' quality. However, sometimes profit taking within a longer move causes a lull in the move, which will also show as divergence, and therefore give a false signal.

I posted in more detail on the math behind different types of indicators here.

In the chart posted here, I've highlighted not only the divergence, but you can also see that the upward move has slowed, as the slope of the purple line is less steep. This is a particularly fine example, as the candle shapes during the deceleration also indicate that exhaustion is imminent. (In post 233 of that thread, you can see that price subsequently plummeted, exactly as the divergence 'predicted' that it would).
  • #166
  • Nov 14, 2012 7:32pm Nov 14, 2012 7:32pm
Looky what i found.

Let's see how it goes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #167
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:19am Nov 15, 2012 12:19am
Quoting dee50
R2R. I have disregarded HD in the past, so you have much more experience of it than I. I have noticed that HD forms much more gradually than RD to the extent that it can fake you out into entering far too early. Screenshot attached. As you can see in this example from tuesday. 1 HD took 14 bars to form each one a potential losing trade, for the inexperienced eye. Is there a way to avoid being fakedout by this sort of formation of HD. Thanks for your help.
that was the greece 44b in aid spike right? it created a H4 hidden bearish divergence

i think that may have overpowered the m5 divergences. i got burned trying to go long on that dip as well. luckily i got out early before it gave back the entire spike.

they aren't 100% trades, some will fail, especially if a higher TF has taken over.


anyway i skipped trading fomc completely for the first time in a long time. i just got done changing around my desk and monitor setup, ill post a pic shortly
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #168
  • Edited 12:37am Nov 15, 2012 12:21am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting hanover
It's not because the heavyweight traders specifically trade divergences, but more because it takes time for the heavyweights to unwind their huge positions, causing a slowing down of price movement, before it changes direction. Because of the their underlying calculation, oscillators like stochastic and RSI measure rates of change, and hence change direction during this slowing down period, giving them a potential 'predictive' quality. However, sometimes profit taking within a longer move causes a lull in the move, which will also show as divergence,...
very intelligent post, i will read the thread you linked.

i agree completely it takes big players long to unwind positions, which i believe is why we often see so much choppyness near the end of a trend. but at the same time, its very rare to see big players close without divergence. they almost force the market into divergence SO they can feel safe closing, knowing the price wont move higher without a pullback, after a large surge that creates divergence
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #169
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:23am Nov 15, 2012 12:23am
Quoting Fx_Pipin
Looky what i found.

Let's see how it goes
your entry was much too late after the divergence

hope it still worked out

edit: as a matter of fact, you went long into a bearish divergence AND a hidden bearish divergence that showed up simultaneously, do you see where i am referring to?

the crawl up to that bearish divergence is further confirmation that the move was weak and probably going to fall again.

the ideal time to go long on that bullish divergence was after the stochastic crossover, around 2720/21
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #170
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:31am Nov 15, 2012 12:31am
as usual we saw the pump and dump of euros pre and post fomc
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #171
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:43am Nov 15, 2012 12:43am
from now on it will be

BullD - bullish divergence
BearD - bearish divergence
BullHD - bullish hidden divergence
BearHD - bearish hidden divergence
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #172
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:03am Nov 15, 2012 1:03am
Sorry if someone has asked before about this. Why not showing your result on Trade Explorer?


P.S. Or at least your equity curve
  • #173
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:19am Nov 15, 2012 1:19am
Quoting kk007
Sorry if someone has asked before about this. Why not showing your result on Trade Explorer?


P.S. Or at least your equity curve
i would have to open a new account to do so as my current one has a lot more than 1k in it and has been running for a year. in fact i have 4 different mental cash accounts, all pooled into one trading account. i track the equity change for each account manually per trade
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #174
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:22am Nov 15, 2012 3:22am
Hi all

I missed these 2 trades.

Maybe we would get a Regular Div later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-15_0852-2_hidden_divergence.png Size: 105 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #175
  • Nov 15, 2012 3:53am Nov 15, 2012 3:53am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
i would have to open a new account to do so as my current one has a lot more than 1k in it and has been running for a year. in fact i have 4 different mental cash accounts, all pooled into one trading account. i track the equity change for each account manually per trade
IF you want you could lock everything related to equity & balance so they will not appear for anybody and ONLY show your trades through trade explorer. By this way showing trades & managing them for you will be easy.
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #176
  • Edited 7:42am Nov 15, 2012 4:53am | Edited 7:42am
Yesterdays opportunities. Meagre.

Just wanted to add. Only one of the trades as a divergence trade, the others were PA. I only took the first HD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14 11 crap.png Size: 82 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #177
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:53am Nov 15, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
your entry was much too late after the divergence

hope it still worked out

edit: as a matter of fact, you went long into a bearish divergence AND a hidden bearish divergence that showed up simultaneously, do you see where i am referring to?

the crawl up to that bearish divergence is further confirmation that the move was weak and probably going to fall again.

the ideal time to go long on that bullish divergence was after the stochastic crossover, around 2720/21

It worked out for 20 pips, but i see what you mean regarding the sooner entry
  • #178
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:44am Nov 15, 2012 11:44am
feeling sick but i got some great sleep last night, 40 mins till Ben

hope to get another 2 or 3% today.

but if i take a loss (10 pips in one day), ill walk. thats part of my parameters
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #179
  • Edited 12:20pm Nov 15, 2012 12:08pm | Edited 12:20pm
although i believe his speech today is not important hopefully just Ben talking makes the market active
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #180
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:18pm Nov 15, 2012 12:18pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...o-not-they-say
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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