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  • #2,261
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:27am Nov 9, 2012 4:27am
Quoting Crassius
This is the bounce to get short into or add if you are already short... trades 2782 in Asia as I type.... .

Be patient with it.... there is an Asain central Bank with a do not touch option at 2700.... they will be defending from 2720 down.. ultimately it will break... often of a news spike that they can't defend against.... its just slowing momentum IMHO.... There are a lot of pips to collect on my trade... it isn't going to happen in one day....
  • #2,262
  • Edited 7:02am Nov 9, 2012 7:02am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting Crassius
Be patient with it.... there is an Asain central Bank with a do not touch option at 2700.... they will be defending from 2720 down.. ultimately it will break... often of a news spike that they can't defend against.... its just slowing momentum IMHO.... There are a lot of pips to collect on my trade... it isn't going to happen in one day....

Mission accomplished.... Asian Central Bank's Do Not Touch is cleared....
Attached Image
  • #2,263
  • Edited 3:11pm Nov 9, 2012 3:09pm | Edited 3:11pm
Some food for thought as you relax over the weekend...

Getting a lot of attention among cycle theorists...

Markets are made up of ever repeating fractals, like pieces of a puzzle, similar pieces become recognizable cookie cutter shapes we call patterns. The repeating fractal nature of the market is the underlying basis for candlestick patterns, traditional chart patterns like a Head and Shoulders top, the patterns that draw out Elliott Waves etc.

The chart below is of 1987 at and just after the crash.... if this pattern continues to repeat.... as it has all year to draw out such similar charts, S&P will decline to around 1030 in the near future....

freakishly similar charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1987 fractal.png Size: 49 KB
  • #2,264
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:57pm Nov 9, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting tomspin
I would say lower 12's 1200/1250 if current drop would be similair to one after QE1 pre QE2, I think as long as Data will be disapointing and Ben live in denial we will be droping untill election
There goes my little chart and possible scenario

http://s7.postimage.org/dxj6pjum3/sp500.gif
image upload

Hey Crassius

I've just went trought whole thread to post this as I remember this chart I placed, it is really worth to go back from that point and see quality in posts from you guys. Cannot be active right now, running nice gold trades but totally fucked up GBP bears as I should see it coming.
Still bullish about euro, well bearish about dollar more but will be focused on daily charts more from now on - no time for intraday.
No idea why you don't get credit you truly deserve C.
Regards
Tom
swing it!
  • #2,265
  • Nov 9, 2012 5:12pm Nov 9, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting tomspin
Hey Crassius

No idea why you don't get credit you truly deserve C.
Regards
Tom
i am sure there are many people on FF that like me look forward to Crassius,s post .
and read every word .

all i can say is thanks for the contributions
  • #2,266
  • Nov 10, 2012 10:32pm Nov 10, 2012 10:32pm
Friday Review: Should I buy the possible pullback or wait for entry on Resistance?

This report contains: Econometric, Technical, cyclical fundamental and order flow analysis.

It’s exclusively designed for professional traders.

Made by Gino

(Anyone who wants this report via email, just send me an email to [color=blue][email protected][/color]) I usually post the report at this hour. (10 pm GMT -6)
Guys any doubts or questions will be solved on Weekend. I will make a FAQ with any questions you have.
(Also if I missed any subscriber please let me know ASAP)

Have a great weekend
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 10.11.2012.pdf   709 KB | 242 downloads
  • #2,267
  • Edited 4:15pm Nov 11, 2012 1:15pm | Edited 4:15pm
EURUSD Sunday Before the Open...

Obviously from my posts last week I am hugely bearish over the coming weeks/months, but it will not be a straight shot down. I will be selling some of my short position at short term lows, adding during bounces...

In my working count we are inside wave three of four nested degrees. Taking profit on short term lows means taking some risk off into likely support levels that might spell the end of a wave 3, and adding back more shorts on the bounce back to the top of a wave four, which will pave the way for the next higher degree's wave 3 bottom. You can think of a higher degree as a higher time frame not tied to time, but to size of waves....

Thursday night we did get a bounce into my sell zone... but just.... I was looking for a at least a serious challenge of 1.2800 and more likely a failed challenge of 1.2825ish, the 200 DMA. We got a weak rally into the sell zone, at an odd hour of the day, followed by the inevitable decline through the Do Not Touch Option barrier at 1.2700

I was expecting 1.2655 at least on this swing down, more likely the 100 DMA now at 1.2633, but we got caught by 1.2690, the June 29th pivot high, just as the S&P took off in early morning US trade. EURUSD can not make progress down during a strong rally in S&P 500.

Below I have posted my working count for the S&P 500, which is from CFD data... not the best to work from, but its free. It will be hard to make downside progress with the S&P bouncing. I do not think we have put in a wave ii in green which is why it has a ?... that is most likely a smaller degree wave A, leaving some considerable room for a retrace in S&P 500 to retest the 1400 area, put in wave c of red degree, and that will complete wave ii of the green degree..... that would put both markets, EURUSD and S&P500 in synch for a serious decline to follow. A retest of major support turned resistance after a trial break of the 200 DMA would be a very normal course of events for any market... so this seems to fit the current S&P500 price action..

Long story short.... respect the possibility of a retrace bounce in EURUSD in sympathy with S&P500 (all broad market equity measures) which should be viewed as an opportunity to add to short....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P.png Size: 17 KB
  • #2,268
  • Edited 2:54am Nov 12, 2012 2:53am | Edited 2:54am
Looking for a move below the stops piled up under 2690 to complete 5 waves down.... I will be taking profit from 2695 to 2670....

Then will be adding back in on the move higher after we correct from the 5 waves down we are now drawing out...

SL moved down to just below my lowest remaining entry at 2770, which leaves the other higher entries in profit if hit....
  • #2,269
  • Edited 4:44am Nov 12, 2012 4:41am | Edited 4:44am
We are near the end of a short term leg down with momentum dieing in what will probably draw out into an ending diagonal...... S&P may accelerate higher as more and more US traders come to their desks.... meanwhile FX flows are thin as US banks out today...

Looks like some big guns are buying all dips into 2700, despite some serious efforts by specs to pop the stops that are below 2690... where I am hoping to take some profit on the part of a position I am still holding short....

I've moved my SL to 2741 on 1/2 of what I have left.... the rest has such a high entry I will hold it through the next upward correction if need be...

I was hoping for 2650 - 2634 out of this swing, but it looks like that will be too far away for this swing.... 2670 area has a 2.618 Fib associated with it, and it is also the S1 today.... so my guess is with the falling 'mo, lower is unlikely without some news flow to drive us through the CB's ME names etc buying the dips... hence I will be flat by 1.2675/70 if I even get that lucky.

Definately in danger of S&P getting a fire lit under it in the coming 2 to 3 hours.... need the specs to win the battle over 2700.... still, even if stopped out now, I have taken profit on half my load Friday, and will still be stopped out in the green.... and ready to reload higher...
  • #2,270
  • Edited 8:31am Nov 12, 2012 8:28am | Edited 8:31am
I've had a lot of time in these shit conditions to get artistic with my chart labels... This is my count at this time.... the pop to 2730 was ECB Fix related buying in thin Holiday conditions in a lackluster market....

If this count holds, we will be putting in a five of five.... Two fifth waves of two nested degrees coming in together... hence my planned taking off of risk to get flat near 2675/0.

I'll then see how the waves develoope on the bounce off the five of five..... If it looks corrective in the larger degree, I'll short into it....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: count 2012_11_12.png Size: 20 KB
  • #2,271
  • Edited 7:10pm Nov 12, 2012 7:09pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting Crassius
I've moved my SL to 2741 on 1/2 of what I have left.... the rest has such a high entry I will hold it through the next upward correction if need be...

I was hoping for 2650 - 2634 out of this swing, but it looks like that will be too far away for this swing.... 2670 area has a 2.618 Fib associated with it, and it is also the S1 today.... so my guess is with the falling 'mo, lower is unlikely without some news flow to drive us through the CB's ME names etc buying the dips... hence I will be flat by 1.2675/70 if I even get that lucky.
We just traded 2690 and I'm starting to get some fills for profit taking... I have them layered down from 2695 to 2675.... S2 now at 2673, and my ideal target this swing is at 2670.... Stop Loss on entire position moved to 2742 just above Monday high... We are putting in the fifth of a fifth... so the end is most likely near at hand...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade_.png Size: 17 KB
  • #2,272
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:13pm Nov 12, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting Crassius
We just traded 2690 and I'm starting to get some fills for profit taking... I have them layered down from 2695 to 2675.... S2 now at 2673, and my ideal target this swing is at 2670.... Stop Loss on entire position moved to 2742 just above Monday high... We are putting in the fifth of a fifth... so the end is most likely near at hand...
your numbers correspond to a gann fan line at 1.2625/35 and the 100 sma daily

ALSO PRICE AS BOTTOM OF .......DRAGHI Spike sept 7 for the eu

nice to see you back.....vacation? blue sky and white sand maybe
  • #2,273
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:18pm Nov 12, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting roro53
your numbers correspond to a gann fan line at 1.2625/35 and the 100 sma daily

ALSO PRICE AS BOTTOM OF .......DRAGHI Spike sept 7 for the eu

nice to see you back.....vacation? blue sky and white sand maybe
Thanks... yeah I was hoping for the 100 DMA... but we seem to be at the end of this degree and momentum fits the count and formation.... We will just retrace higher, put in a fourth wave top of a higher degree to short from and then visit the 100 DMA... and lower most likely... 2475 is calling.... We'll see how the waves draw out over time...
  • #2,274
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:32pm Nov 12, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting Crassius
Thanks... yeah I was hoping for the 100 DMA... but we seem to be at the end of this degree and momentum fits the count and formation.... We will just retrace higher, put in a fourth wave top of a higher degree to short from and then visit the 100 DMA... and lower most likely... 2475 is calling.... We'll see how the waves draw out over time...
maybe 1400 or 1425 for the S&P?

hard to tell here FA ...maybe China will make a play to sell the world on a 5 yr plan of political/economic/social stability in the context of Republican/Democrat bickering and EZ indecision

RMB influence in a dynamic geopolitical shift, maybe
  • #2,275
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:34pm Nov 12, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting roro53
maybe 1400 or 1425 for the S&P?

I think we get a test and fail of 1400... but could extend as high as 1436.... I do think we are rolling over into a huge downturn.... think 980 to 1030.
  • #2,276
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:42pm Nov 12, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting Crassius
I think we get a test and fail of 1400... but could extend as high as 1436.... I do think we are rolling over into a huge downturn.... think 980 to 1030.
QE3 and 4 and 7 get rolled over here?
  • #2,277
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:48pm Nov 12, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting Crassius
I think we get a test and fail of 1400... but could extend as high as 1436.... I do think we are rolling over into a huge downturn.... think 980 to 1030.
just crossed my mind but any thoughts on shale oil?..........my initial impression is positive for USD
  • #2,278
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:53pm Nov 12, 2012 7:53pm
Quoting roro53
just crossed my mind but any thoughts on shale oil?..........my initial impression is positive for USD
Obama will kill it. Period. I'm not kidding or being flippant. He hates carbons... has already floated a carbon tax after the election, and is beholden to the environmentalists who not only hate carbon, they really hate fracking...

He is a socialist. He believes he and his government know what is best in a top down, government managed, planned economy....

and carbons are not what he/they think is best. Therefore he will not allow it. He'll tax it to death, regulate it to death, make it impossible to be used in the US.
  • #2,279
  • Nov 12, 2012 7:59pm Nov 12, 2012 7:59pm
Finally the stops get popped below 2685.... I have blue balls....

We have now satisfied mimimum requirements for a completed fifth of fifth.... Where it stops nobody knows... but the mins are in the bag.... and the pips in my pocket... got one more tranche to fill at 2875.

SL on last bit left to book profit lowered to 2701....
  • #2,280
  • Nov 12, 2012 8:04pm Nov 12, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting Crassius
Finally the stops get popped below 2685.... I have blue balls....

We have now satisfied mimimum requirements for a completed fifth of fifth.... Where it stops nobody knows... but the mins are in the bag.... and the pips in my pocket... got one more tranche to fill at 2875.

SL on last bit left to book profit lowered to 2701....

All Ordinaries (Australian Equity Index) getting hammered
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