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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #12,641
  • Edited 2:15pm Nov 10, 2012 1:17pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Although I cannot say all news coming out from China during this critical time are all fake, by the same token, I would say not every piece of China news is real. IMO
However, looking at the human herd mentality, the Aussie Bulls will be more than happy to push AUDUSD higher even they may have the same question like mine.

Personally, I don't consider this is a fundamental issue but the human herd mentality result. On Friday, Asian shares were down despite China good data. This means fundamentals are not the main driving forces behind the markets.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,642
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:21pm Nov 10, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting maximmm
in regards to polls, i prefer trend lines - whether the price action is neutral, triangle forming, or trending, they tend to work - most of the time.

I also think candle formations are important as well.

Fibonacci is important but i'm not very comfortable relying on it inside the triangle formaton - same applies to ewp - these often do not work inside the triangle formation, where quite often the price action consists only of two waves rather than the standard three.

Once the currency pairs exit their respective triangle formations,...
Good points. Here is my 2 cents for your opinion, "where quite often the price action consists only of two waves rather than the standard three." The 5 waves within a triangle are all 3 waves.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,643
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:34pm Nov 10, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Good points. Here is my 2 cents for your opinion, "where quite often the price action consists only of two waves rather than the standard three." The 5 waves within a triangle are all 3 waves.
Regardless of where the wave is, the minimum numbers of the waves must be three. 5, 7 and 9 waves are also common in most cases.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,644
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:38pm Nov 10, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Good points. Here is my 2 cents for your opinion, "where quite often the price action consists only of two waves rather than the standard three." The 5 waves within a triangle are all 3 waves.
Right - when I said standard 3 waves, i meant five - so when I said two waves - I meant 4 by that count.

The point being, while the price action is within the triangle formation, the wave count often does not fit the ewp theory - and only upon the exit from the triangle formation does the price action begin to follow ewp count.
  • #12,645
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:38pm Nov 10, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Coming week scenario:

The China Bull is eying on the upticks and blow the smokes into the air while the Bears are holding the USD balloons on the back of the Bull .........
BTW, the cigarette is made in China. Not sure if it would pass US inspections. But, the Aussie Bulls have been addicted to it for too long already.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352573174
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,646
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:46pm Nov 10, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
BTW, the cigarette is made in China. Not sure if it would pass US inspections. But, the Aussie Bulls have been addicted to it for too long already.
The Bears will let the USD balloons fly away and away sometime next week IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RED EYES-2.JPG Size: 59 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,647
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:47pm Nov 10, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Regarding the poll, it is a surprise that the component of Fibonacci Numbers is not considered by the majority of the poll participants so far.
You gotta remember that the time frames people are trading are probably affecting this poll. As a scalper I'm always on the prowl for that short term support and resistance, whereas if I zoomed out a bit I'd probably be much more concerned with the Fib.

It's the weekend, what are we doing here!?!? Get away from your charts!!! haha
  • #12,648
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:48pm Nov 10, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The Bears will let the USD balloons fly away and away sometime next week IMO.
And then ..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WRESTLING.JPG Size: 45 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,649
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:51pm Nov 10, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting SemperOorah
You gotta remember that the time frames people are trading are probably affecting this poll. As a scalper I'm always on the prowl for that short term support and resistance, whereas if I zoomed out a bit I'd probably be much more concerned with the Fib.

It's the weekend, what are we doing here!?!? Get away from your charts!!! haha
Thanks for participating the poll. Weekend is a good time to figure out the Aussie's next moves because there is no trading.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,650
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:57pm Nov 10, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Thanks for participating the poll. Weekend is a good time to figure out the Aussie's next moves because there is no trading.
Some people may be confused about whether I am a Bull or a Bear. I am a speculator and trade on the waves. I switch my positions at the "TIME" of wave changes. It could be at R/S, trend lines, Fibonacci Numbers, news/events or any combinations.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,651
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:04pm Nov 10, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I chose "Time" as my component. The reason is that knowing when to trade and when not to trade is the first step to win in the Forex market.

A time to trade. I trade on waves. The beginning and the ending of a major wave won't happen in off-peak hours. Knowing when to trade may be easier than knowing when not to trade. IMO
Been keeping an eye on the thread for a while and i was so sure you would vote for time, and i cannot disagree with you even though i voted for supp/res. Surprised you didn't have candlestick patterns , supply demand..but then i read you are only allowed 5.

I would contend that supp/resis supply.demand has an element of time in it. As one has to wait for price to come to ones level. So maybe waiting for that to happen will keep one out of the market for a certain time. Maybe the time you dont want to be trading.

Anyway thanks for the poll, certainly interesting to read peoples views.
  • #12,652
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:18pm Nov 10, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting ybeidas
Been keeping an eye on the thread for a while and i was so sure you would vote for time, and i cannot disagree with you even though i voted for supp/res. Surprised you didn't have candlestick patterns , supply demand..but then i read you are only allowed 5.

I would contend that supp/resis supply.demand has an element of time in it. As one has to wait for price to come to ones level. So maybe waiting for that to happen will keep one out of the market for a certain time. Maybe the time you dont want to be trading.

Anyway thanks for the poll,...
ybeidas, thanks for your insights. This will help people trade better.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,653
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:22pm Nov 10, 2012 2:22pm
The current poll result indicates R/S is leading although not conclusive. I am intended to keep the poll open for a while in order to get a reliable result in the end for everyone in this forum.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: POLL.JPG Size: 61 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,654
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:24pm Nov 10, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting DaddyBear
ybeidas, thanks for your insights. This will help people trade better.
No, thank you for your selfless insights, and i wont even start on your hilarious cartoons.
  • #12,655
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:47pm Nov 10, 2012 2:47pm
AUDUSD has significantly diverged from AU5yr-US5yr yield lines, Normally as with most other currencies these are highly correlated but this is worrying for any long term (3-6 months + ) bulls out there.

Any opinions?

EDIT: a clearer Overlayed chart showing the two of them
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD vs AUD5yr-US5yr.jpg Size: 86 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Overlayed AUDUSD vs AU5yr us 5yr spread.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #12,656
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:57pm Nov 10, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting JeremyWS
AUDUSD has significantly diverged from AU5yr-US5yr yield lines, Normally as with most other currencies these are highly correlated but this is worrying for any long term (3-6 months + ) bulls out there.

Any opinions?
What short-term impact will this divergence be on AUDUSD?
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,657
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:00pm Nov 10, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What short-term impact will this divergence be on AUDUSD?
Well short term not much. But it, for me, shows medium-long term weakness. Any thoughts? the Divergence is clear.
  • #12,658
  • Nov 10, 2012 3:05pm Nov 10, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Well short term not much. But it, for me, shows medium-long term weakness. Any thoughts? the Divergence is clear.
I am trading short-term but have paid attention to the medium-long term as well. My opinion is that the medium term is bullish but the long term is bearish.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,659
  • Nov 10, 2012 5:39pm Nov 10, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting tunera
this is what i mean

Hi.

Are you familiar with Delta Cycles and Dynamic Trader? If not, this would be I think (based on your pic) THE thing for you.

Although I'm not yet fully into this, I have a friend who's all over it. Let me know if you'd be interested to know more about this.


BR
  • #12,660
  • Nov 10, 2012 8:07pm Nov 10, 2012 8:07pm
S/R is the leading component so far. It's easier to identify and to apply to the trading. I would pay more attention to S/R from now on. In the meantime, other components are also valuable as well. I would take them into considerations during trading analysis besides S/R.
daddybearforex. com
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