AUD/USD

In the case of the $AUD , Imports are the more important part of the equation .
A decrease in Imports signifies lower demand for Australian resources , thus less demand for $AUD

I guess he was mentioning the fact that imports were less than expected for the month. Less demand => bearish on AUD.

But my point of view is that export should be weighed more as it shows the strength of China economy since it still heavily relies on export.

On the other hand, if you take a closer look at the import data. The first 10 months the total imports is 84 bln, while mechanical and electrical products account for 64 bln. So a less import data is actually showing less demand of those products rather than raw materials. On this account I am not taking the import data highly.

Oops, should be 840 bln and 640 bln, respectively.

Further information, iron sand, 610 mn ton, with 132 USD per ton, roughly 80.5 bln, up 8.9% for the first 10 months; coal, 220 mn ton, with 103 USD per ton, roughly 22 bln, up 33.5% for the first 10 months.

Bullish, looking for 1.0570 and thereabouts.

If it continues it's downfall; I'll buy more; specially around 2.89-3.10

If it drops more, I'll just BUY more.

i also think 10570 tl will be challenged. price too close now to let stops above prosper. There is also large bunch of shorts still hanging on hope for aud fall that require lesson.

april '10 and now - could happen

You have a analyze or chart for this? Share please

let put my way of seeing this with charts.

WEEKLY we are still not out of blue triangle.We had 15 pips missed trend line 8 weeks ago.My pending sell at tahat line was missed for that 10-15 pips.Possible that buyers will try to fill that resistance line in that triangle.bolinger is in narrowing mode and in some time haasnt benn touched on uper band.20 weeks ago we touch lower band but we didnt break on down so now upper should be tested.That uper band and resistance line of blue triangle is arround 1.0570-90 area.Bolinger is litter higher but in time next week will be lower,week after that more lower..etc.etc until price touch it or break it.Since he is in narrowing mode possible range betwen uper and lower band 1.0570-1.0150 area untill it wides up again.

DAILY Sankou B is flat for some time and cloud is down trend.wnsday candle is little more bearish and last daily is in some neutral mode but more negative so we must go below spankou B at which we are now and to test 1.0315 area.if we close below that lower band of daily bolindzer will be tested at 1.0260 area and weekly spankou B which is arround 1.0230 area.At that lower band of daily band we might have new move on up to 1.0570 to that uper band on weekly.

4HR every time we touch cloud on 4 hr RSI is at 40 area and price bounce up.So when we go below cloud or 40 RSI time for more agresive traders to go in bigger sell.For others wait to test cloud from below or RSI 40 area from below.After that i am thinking of lower weekly blue triangle line (support line)

In short might go to 1.0570 area and if you are swing trader to try sell from theare with small SL and bigger size lot.If on daily go in cloud or even below then will look for closing below 1.0315 area for going into bigger sell.I ma very positiv on that sell set up but carefull.Also news about new possible recesion in world because of fiscla clif in USA might make traders to pull back from risker assets to dollar and yen and aussie will then go down for sure.

Nice. I am a day trader. For me trend is down to 1.0355 1.0325 1.03. If break 1.0415 trend it's up.

Thats very intresing ,thanks

Hi guys. Really been enjoying reading this thread the last week or two. It's been good to see how other people have been seeing and projecting the market and has opened my eyes a bit.

Pip Piper: What has worked for me recently was going back to the demo account and trading without stops for a bit. I'm still very much a noob who keeps making the same mistakes over and over and getting frustrated and quitting for a couple of weeks, only to find out that I would have been right had I timed my trade better.

I think that learning when to get into a trade is bloody difficult. Your system is giving you a buy signal and it looks good so you take it, only to see that you were an hour early. You get a run of these and it puts you in a space where learning form your mistakes just isn't going to happen - for a range of reasons. You waste so much learning time like this.

Sitting in a trade that's a hundred pips down and trading around it has been hugely beneficial to me. Not having to take that loss has kept me at the charts, kept me involved and eventually, I had an a-ha moment.

If y'all want to let me brag a bit. It isn't much on the surface but it represents a bit of a shift for me. For starters, it's the first time I ever got an entry order right.

The major downward move from Sept 14 to Oct 8 doesn't look like it's played out. I think we are on a retrace. Price stopped rising from the rates decision at around 422. Had a few goes at getting through without luck (strong resistance), until the hopium rally after Obama got returned. The move from the October low to the weekly high two weeks later had a 38.2 extension at 480. I have a falling trend line at that point so had a TP on a long set for 475, just to be sure. The reversal after that was when it clicked for me, I think. I read a little of the James16 thread that mentioned pin bars are only good when they reject certain levels.

It confirmed later in the night. I was going to bed and I think we were at about 420. We were looking at a daily pin with rejection of that extension, as well as the older 61.8. The unemployment figures had been good, but nothing market moving. The 15m showed the move ending at 426 (I have a rising channel there) before continuing weakly... no follow through.

My 4H had a long bearish signal candle from 466 to 418 with a 50 retrace sitting right back on that old 61.8. It was also the 38.2 retrace from the top and the 38.2 extension of the impulse we had after those unemployment figures. Figuring that it was getting into the NY afternoon, where algo's would probably have more sway, I put in an entry order to short at the 38.2 extension. I figured it was a pip closer and would help rule out any foul play from my broker. I woke up in the morning to find this thing 40 something pips to the good.

Awesome. You know... it's one thing to be told to learn patience. To learn your fibs. To learn your S & R. To wait until the right time. But some of us need to actually 'do' before it sinks in and just quietly, getting stopped out all the time had been stopping me from internally understanding what everyone has been saying. Now that I had gotten that, I put in a stop at BE as it is time to get back into that practice.

Anyways... I have a TP in at 338. I like that area, though 386 (the half way point is always a s***) is proving to be pretty sticky. Check out the bounces we are getting off it? But by the end of the week, we closed under some important prices. I have a fib drawn from the week's high to the low of the confirm daily candle (Thursday) that has its 61.8 extension at 331. It is the 38.2 retrace level of the large down move from late September (329). The move from 148 to 387 in early october has its 23.6 retrace at 331. I think it will want to have a look at last week's open (338) and will overshoot that mark to complete all that fib stuff it needs to. Then I reckon it's gonna bounce like a mother------ (assuming that that is what mother------s do). I have a couple of trend lines crossing around Sydney Close on Tuesday, however with the US having Monday off, the algos might get to it after London Close on Monday night.

Well.... that's the plan anyway

Hi Everyone,
Personally I have my eyes peeled for a sell signal. I feel the market has topped out on some important news items recently that point to an exhausted long market (QE3 top at 1.06 and U.S. election top at 1.05)
But most of all I think the market positioning is dangerous right here. See the attached chart. The red line at the bottom is the small "one lot" traders LONG ONLY. (taken from the CME) The way I read it, you don't want to be facing tha same way when they are at extremes as they are now (and last Feb etc etc).

Given the sidways nature of this market I view it as a long term Market Profile reaching completion and personaly I would sell or "go with" any highly directional move of 150 pts or thereabouts especially if it eminated from around 1.0400 (the point of control).

I hate to broadcast targets but if this eventuates I think we will see this market target 9000 to 9300 area and fill in that low volume area.

we all know long term aud is oversold and overvalued by alot. Q is how will it react
to a bullish es and bullish gold? I say as price rises you will get a feel if correlations start to break. If you say au
is long term bearish are u also saying es is bearish too? Im not so i think a
top might be a while off still

I suggest I have the same perception that AUD/USD will go south. Not sure if I am right but last time I posted some prediction it is totally wrong

Well even if you ignored all else the last two years you would have been fine getting bullish in the 9600 to 9800 zone and getting bearish in the 10600 to 10800 zone.

I'm no equity trader but alas yes I have to keep abreast in this "risk on risk off" landscape... I see the AUD to be most corelated to the Dow Jones Transports ATM... and that is completing an bell curve as well... all are trading sideways around the point of control and the next directiol move will be one to go with. I am just saying because the small longs are long to the gunnels (previous chart) then I predict the move will be down....

If I was an equity trader and had been lucky enough to have been bullish all year, I would now be going flat and go on holiday till next year, say thank you very much for the U.S. election ramp (now removed) and breath a sigh of relief that I banked my long profits while they were still there... We'll see

Stacked a short at 1.0413 - 12:33 PM Melbourne

61.8 extension of the move late on Friday. Converges with trendline from that move, descending channel top, last Friday's open and a larger 61.8 retrace.

Not very confident on this one as I think I could have waited to 434 or so. Currently no stop so will have to monitor. Will place a tight stop when we bid 1.0400 which has performed some strong support in the last week or so. Will move it to BE on a break of 392. However, I'm betting on the channel holding as the spike leading up to my sell had no news behind it. In fact, the only news we have had was almost an hour earlier and bearish (JPY and AUD)

Target is currently at 10338, but I am getting really nervous about the 386 level

I'm long a/u at 1.0407 and short e/a at 1.2217
I see first resistance at 1.0440

I posted the following on November 8:


**I'm not ready to short AUD/USD quite yet. Looking at weekly charts for AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, and AUD/CAD tells me all of these currency pairs still have more room to go towards the upside. Also, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD have more room to go to the downside.

Supply and demand will drive prices to the levels mentioned for E/A and G/A as they are levels where buyers started to take control in the past. This can definitely be seen when looking at the Weekly charts. When E/A hits 1.17 and G/A hits 1.48 is more than likely the same time I will look to short AUD/USD... Obviously I will look at Price Action when it hits the levels to find solid entry points.

Yup .. I like it

I'm thinking of shorting it @ 1.0422