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  • #12,581
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:53pm Nov 9, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking into D1 chart carefully, I'd say the Bulls are not done yet in the daily context. The daily has formed a super Doji and H4 has a hammer. This hammer is apart of the super Doji. Both are sitting on the ULTL.

Sunday open may see a drop toward the TL then a move up for another Bulls' attempt to retest 1.0480x. IMO
The other way to look into this projection is that although the daily candle touched the LTL, the corresponding ADX Index does not touch its own trend line. IMO this means the Bulls still energetic at this point. I would call this another type of divergence.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,582
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:59pm Nov 9, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The other way to look into this projection is that although the daily candle touched the LTL, the corresponding ADX Index does not touch its own trend line. IMO this means the Bulls still energetic at this point. I would call this another type of divergence.
Current PA reminds me the same picture before ......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #12,583
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:06pm Nov 9, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Current PA reminds me the same picture before ......
Any take on AUDCAD?
Is it better risk off in this scenerio?
  • #12,584
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:23pm Nov 9, 2012 7:23pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Any take on AUDCAD?
Is it better risk off in this scenerio?
Sorry, I only trade AUDUSD. Don't have any take on AUDCAD. DB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,585
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:20pm Nov 9, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Sorry, I only trade AUDUSD. Don't have any take on AUDCAD. DB
failed to close below tl,

china trade balance is 32b

gap up ?
  • #12,586
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:34pm Nov 9, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting HelloOz
failed to close below tl,

china trade balance is 32b

gap up ?
This is hard to say. There may be some bad news coming out from Europe such as Spain bailout during this weekend. Any bad news coming after the good news may override CNY TB.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,587
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:42pm Nov 9, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking into D1 chart carefully, I'd say the Bulls are not done yet in the daily context. The daily has formed a super Doji and H4 has a hammer. This hammer is a part of the super Doji. Both are sitting on the LTL.

Sunday open may see a drop toward the TL then a move up for another Bulls' attempt to retest 1.0480x or beyond. IMO
If so, then this is the flag to fly next week .......
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,588
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:09pm Nov 9, 2012 9:09pm
Quoting DaddyBear
After looking into D1 chart carefully, I'd say the Bulls are not done yet in the daily context. The daily has formed a super Doji and H4 has a hammer. This hammer is a part of the super Doji. Both are sitting on the LTL.

Sunday open may see a drop toward the TL then a move up for another Bulls' attempt to retest 1.0480x or beyond. IMO
Good words daddy, me too think that the market may accumulating buys for a further knock to 1.063x area and beyond.
But the dollar is showing to be a great warrior, hard to die. (well, just a matter of time maybe)

Keep it safe

P.s.
I'm not trading audusd from long time but i still enjoy to read this thread!
  • #12,589
  • Edited 9:47pm Nov 9, 2012 9:24pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting tunera
Good words daddy, me too think that the market may accumulating buys for a further knock to 1.063x area and beyond.
But the dollar is showing to be a great warrior, hard to die. (well, just a matter of time maybe)

Keep it safe

P.s.
I'm not trading audusd from long time but i still enjoy to read this thread!
tunera, long time no see, my Italian friend.

I looked at my system II and came to this projection:
There shall be one more wave up.

Rationales:
1. The daily channel is intact.
2. The LTL is above the median line.
3. The red bear area above the channel is much smaller than the green bull area below.

IMO
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,590
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:28pm Nov 9, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
tunera, long time no see, my Italian friend.

I looked at my system II and came to this projection:
There shall be one more wave up.

Rationales:
1. The daily channel is intact.
2. The LTL is above the median line.
3. The red bear area above the channel is much smaller than the green bull area below.

IMO
However, this does not mean no red candles at all next week.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,591
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:46pm Nov 9, 2012 9:46pm
"The early economic impact of Super Storm Sandy could start to show up in the coming week’s data, while investors remain riveted by Washington’s new urgency to fix the “fiscal cliff (http://www.cnbc.com/id/49464221/).”"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49764062

Last year [?], Queensland was hit by a flood disaster. The Aussie dropped. The impact of Super Storm Sandy is so serious. I live in the area hit by the storm very hard and know what happened. Queensland's impact on the Aussie was history. History repeats itself but this time it's the impact on the USD. The coming week’s data may drive the USD down.

This fact supports my projection above.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,592
  • Nov 9, 2012 10:06pm Nov 9, 2012 10:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
"The early economic impact of Super Storm Sandy could start to show up in the coming week’s data, while investors remain riveted by Washington’s new urgency to fix the “fiscal cliff (http://www.cnbc.com/id/49464221/).”"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49764062

Last year [?], Queensland was hit by a flood disaster. The Aussie dropped. The impact of Super Storm Sandy is so serious. I live in the area hit by the storm very hard and know what happened. Queensland's impact on the Aussie was history. History repeats...
Not quite. Bad data from USA may cause risk off reaction.

I'm looking at the weekly candles - it's all looking very bearish - including usdjpy. We may see an uptick at first (due to China data) but then a bigger move down later on for the duration of the week.
  • #12,593
  • Nov 9, 2012 10:19pm Nov 9, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting maximmm
Not quite. Bad data from USA may cause risk off reaction.

I'm looking at the weekly candles - it's all looking very bearish - including usdjpy. We may see an uptick at first (due to China data) but then a bigger move down later on for the duration of the week.
I look at these bearish bars from a different angle. Bullish or bearish sentiment does not last forever. You may overlooked the daily Doji sitting on the LTL. This has certain meanings IMO.

More importantly, the current wave has not touched the LTL even the day low has done so. This is a type of divergence.

I agree with you that the Aussie will move south but she has a mandate to complete the final up wave first.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,594
  • Nov 9, 2012 10:24pm Nov 9, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting maximmm
Not quite. Bad data from USA may cause risk off reaction.

I'm looking at the weekly candles - it's all looking very bearish - including usdjpy. We may see an uptick at first (due to China data) but then a bigger move down later on for the duration of the week.
BTW, not all bad US data causes risk off reaction. It depends on the sentiment of market participants.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,595
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:23pm Nov 9, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
tunera, long time no see, my Italian friend.

I looked at my system II and came to this projection:
There shall be one more wave up.

Rationales:
1. The daily channel is intact.
2. The LTL is above the median line.
3. The red bear area above the channel is much smaller than the green bull area below.

IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,596
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:27pm Nov 9, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I look at these bearish bars from a different angle. Bullish or bearish sentiment does not last forever. You may overlooked the daily Doji sitting on the LTL. This has certain meanings IMO.

More importantly, the current wave has not touched the LTL even the day low has done so. This is a type of divergence.

I agree with you that the Aussie will move south but she has a mandate to complete the final up wave first.
I'm talking about a weekly candle - so the next candle is weekly as well - So a new wave on daily terms is possible, but the weekly one, I expect it to be bearish next week with an uptick.

Besides - I'm shorting NZD^^

PS. The bearish sentiment has actually been rather minimal - up until this week, AUD and NZD have been moving up - again, on the weekly chart. It's Euro and GBP that that have been more bearish one these days. I expect aud and nzd to catch up - more or less. One week of bearish sentiment is far from being long - on weekly chart, you often have anywhere from two to four week bearish moves - we've only seen one.
  • #12,597
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:31pm Nov 9, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting tunera
There is a little bit difference between your chart and mine. Wave c has not completed yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #12,598
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:39pm Nov 9, 2012 11:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
tunera, long time no see, my Italian friend.

I looked at my system II and came to this projection:
There shall be one more wave up.

Rationales:
1. The daily channel is intact.
2. The LTL is above the median line.
3. The red bear area above the channel is much smaller than the green bull area below.

IMO
Sorry I had to go to work. I noticed the Median line
Love it.
Funny thing I think like you even though it may not seem that way.I also look for sentiment feel as well..
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,599
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:43pm Nov 9, 2012 11:43pm
Quoting Davit
Sorry I had to go to work. I noticed the Median line
Love it.
Funny thing I think like you even though it may not seem that way.I also look for sentiment feel as well..
Regards
It's the median line of an envelope. According to your analysis earlier today, median line can be viewed as the Pivot. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,600
  • Edited Nov 10, 2012 1:18am Nov 9, 2012 11:54pm | Edited Nov 10, 2012 1:18am
Quoting maximmm
I'm talking about a weekly candle - so the next candle is weekly as well - So a new wave on daily terms is possible, but the weekly one, I expect it to be bearish next week with an uptick.

Besides - I'm shorting NZD^^

PS. The bearish sentiment has actually been rather minimal - up until this week, AUD and NZD have been moving up - again, on the weekly chart. It's Euro and GBP that that have been more bearish one these days. I expect aud and nzd to catch up - more or less. One week of bearish sentiment is far from being long - on weekly chart,...
In the weekly chart, a shooting star has formed but not been confirmed. So far, it's still bullish but near the top. The scenario next week could be the Bulls are in control in the first half and the Bears take over later. 3 daily candles shall be enough to complete the next up wave. IMO
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
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