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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #401
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:36am Nov 9, 2012 7:36am
Quoting FOURX
cool, you 're right I do apoligise
Look I'm having a go here. I'm not doing this for any financial gain or trying to brag or anything. I'm just sharing something since I've learned a ton from other people on this forum.

All I'll say is try this out and see. If it's no good then there's surely some other system out there that is quite straight forward. This does require a fair amount of learning, practice and effort. I can assure you not all my trades are winners either.

*update on the Aussie - got my 6 x 2 and at BE.
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  • #402
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:40am Nov 9, 2012 7:40am
Quoting C-12
Alright here's the Aussie. One of these levels is going to turn thing this thing. We're well past ATR. Taking a long off this and getting to BE fast.
Brilliant judgement, C-12! I initially thought you were nuts trying to buy against a strong downtrend
Excellent trading, seriously!

How were you so sure that the trend could potentially change?

Thanks
  • #403
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:49am Nov 9, 2012 7:49am
Quoting logesharun
How were you so sure that the trend could potentially change?
Well 2 things.

1) ATR - AUDUSD usually travels 68 pips per day and we'd already done 75.. A reversal was coming sooner or later.

2) H1 Demand. Price had just sliced through a strong looking level. It was unlikely it would get past the other. I just waited for my alarm and the rejection and got straight in.

Now we got a nice H1 pin forming. Hopefully the momentum traders will pile in now.
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  • #404
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:15am Nov 9, 2012 8:15am
This looks like really poor trade management on the M1. Averaging losers on the way down, moving my stops but I had bigger things in mind...

D1 / H4 demand.
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  • #405
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:25am Nov 9, 2012 8:25am
Quoting C-12
Well 2 things.

1) ATR - AUDUSD usually travels 68 pips per day and we'd already done 75.. A reversal was coming sooner or later.
Thanks a lot for the reply c-12 .

Sorry if this sounds really basic, I'm not completely sure how you make use of the ATR projections/Values, i was assuming that once Today's ATR value crosses the average daily value the volatility/movement will be low! Or is it the other way around?. If i may ask!? could you please let me know how exactly do you derive a conclusion based on this?

Thanks again .
  • #406
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:28am Nov 9, 2012 8:28am
Quoting logesharun
Thanks a lot for the reply c-12 .

Sorry if this sounds really basic, I'm not completely sure how you make use of the ATR projections/Values, i was assuming that once Today's ATR value crosses the average daily value the volatility/movement will be low! Or is it the other way around?, How exactly do you derive a conclusion based on this?

Thanks again .
Oh no, ATR is really simple. It looks at the last 20 days and tells you how many pips the pair travels on an average day.

Most pairs have already hit their daily ATR today so we're now seeing reversals.
  • #407
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:36am Nov 9, 2012 8:36am
Quoting C-12
Oh no, ATR is really simple. It looks at the last 20 days and tells you how many pips the pair travels on an average day.

Most pairs have already hit their daily ATR today so we're now seeing reversals.
So the logic would be to think that once Today's ATR crosses the average ATR, the movement/volatility should be slow, isn't it? But how do you predict that it would cause reversal in the pair? Or is it how ATR basically works?

Thanks again .
  • #408
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:40am Nov 9, 2012 8:40am
Quoting logesharun
So the logic would be to think that once the daily ATR crosses the average ATR, the movement/volatility should be slow, isn't it? But how do you predict that it would cause reversal in the pair? Or is it how ATR basically works?

Thanks again .
It can't predict for sure. The average for the Aussie is 68 pips per day. There's nothing stopping it from travelling over 100 pips but the law of averages is on your side once it goes over 68.

Anyway. I got a bit of a dilemma. I've opened up some swing trades on a Friday. I'm probably going to have to reduce my risk and cut these short since I'm worried about holding over a weekend.
  • #409
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:36am Nov 9, 2012 11:36am
Holy crap, I forgot to click the refresh button when I first opened the thread, and was like wtf this thread is slow today why... bahaha 4 new pages to read thx for the update c-12, not about the tops and bottoms but the htf direction. cheers
  • #410
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:37am Nov 9, 2012 11:37am
Quoting C-12
It can't predict for sure. The average for the Aussie is 68 pips per day. There's nothing stopping it from travelling over 100 pips but the law of averages is on your side once it goes over 68.

Anyway. I got a bit of a dilemma. I've opened up some swing trades on a Friday. I'm probably going to have to reduce my risk and cut these short since I'm worried about holding over a weekend.

Probably a good idea, if youre in profit even better.

Opportunities everyday as you and many traders demonstrate everyday.
  • #411
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:47am Nov 9, 2012 11:47am
Quoting fxfury
Probably a good idea, if youre in profit even better.

Opportunities everyday as you and many traders demonstrate everyday.
Well I've trimmed it back to just the one position with a 100 pip target. I'll hold this since it's unlikely it will gap down 70 pips over the weekend.
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  • #412
  • Nov 9, 2012 11:50am Nov 9, 2012 11:50am
Quoting C-12
This looks like really poor trade management on the M1. Averaging losers on the way down, moving my stops but I had bigger things in mind...

D1 / H4 demand.
interesting! so you also have the longer term trades that you expect to turn within lets say 50 pips and you scale into the trade, because you do not know for certain where exactly it will turn, but you are sure IT will turn.

ive read different opinions about scaling in negatively, it can reduce your risk of the trade up to 3 times, but also reduces your win rate quite a bit, of course, since the position is not placed to the spot but all over the place...

here a quick video about the topic:
Inserted Video
  • #413
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:31pm Nov 9, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting Infest
interesting! so you also have the longer term trades that you expect to turn within lets say 50 pips and you scale into the trade, because you do not know for certain where exactly it will turn, but you are sure IT will turn.

ive read different opinions about scaling in negatively, it can reduce your risk of the trade up to 3 times, but also reduces your win rate quite a bit, of course, since the position is not placed to the spot but all over the place...
Cheers. A very interesting video. Makes total sense to me.

The only thing I can comment is that you if you're very good at picking levels, you might find it hard to get your full position into your trades. Not a bad problem to have though.

I'm going to investigate this next week. I think averaging a loser can work well when inside larger time S/D, especially when price has moved past it's ATR. Eventually you're going to hit a home run.
  • #414
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:36pm Nov 9, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting C-12

I'm going to investigate this next week. I think averaging a loser can work well when inside larger time S/D, especially when price has moved past it's ATR. Eventually you're going to hit a home run.

Averaging a loser is key, it's just taking advantage of a better price, more upside and less risk as SL same as position 1, my 2nd positions make more $$$'s than my 1st positions for less cost.

Also gives you a better average BE exit, if your not liking the trade, for those who struggle to take losses ( most including me )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #415
  • Nov 9, 2012 4:42pm Nov 9, 2012 4:42pm
I guess one of the major problems of averaging a loser is the question of position size.

1. the initial position size must be smaller .. 'couse the final SL for that part will be greater (with 6pips SL there is not much left to average in by the same SL)
2. in case one gets it right with the first part .. the smaller position size gives much less profit
3. even though one might get eventually a home run .. if not ... the loss is much (or the total position size was so small which would also not give much profit)

just my thoughts
R

Quoting C-12
I'm going to investigate this next week. I think averaging a loser can work well when inside larger time S/D, especially when price has moved past it's ATR. Eventually you're going to hit a home run.
  • #416
  • Nov 9, 2012 5:02pm Nov 9, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting Ratatuia
I guess one of the major problems of averaging a loser is the question of position size.

1. the initial position size must be smaller .. 'couse the final SL for that part will be greater (with 6pips SL there is not much left to average in by the same SL)
2. in case one gets it right with the first part .. the smaller position size gives much less profit
3. even though one might get eventually a home run .. if not ... the loss is much (or the total position size was so small which would also not give much profit)

just my thoughts
R
I run 10 to 12 sl generally which gives me average down room.

The issue is you have to trade at a lower lot size on first position say half same for second position, and so if 2nd position doesn't fill you get half the profit you would get and less than 1 larger position.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #417
  • Nov 9, 2012 5:52pm Nov 9, 2012 5:52pm
Of course by same SL the whole thing is a bit different . because also a loss is less (initial 1/2 position and 2nd: loss is just a couple of pips)

with 10/12pips SL your second position is probably only 5-6 pips higher than your original entry..

Did you ever recalculate if it is worthy ..and more profit in the end.... e.g. last 100 trades..?


* how often is the second position also executed:
- if often more than 50% why not enter always a bit later with the full position and SL 6 pips
- if less than 50%: why not enter always with full position size an the original entry and SL 6pips

I did not test-calculate each scenario but I'm just pointing out that averaging a looser might not be the better choice...(but who knows maybe it's in some scenarios the better one)

All the best
R


Quoting Turveyd
I run 10 to 12 sl generally which gives me average down room.

The issue is you have to trade at a lower lot size on first position say half same for second position, and so if 2nd position doesn't fill you get half the profit you would get and less than 1 larger position.
  • #418
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:11pm Nov 9, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting Ratatuia
Of course by same SL the whole thing is a bit different . because also a loss is less (initial 1/2 position and 2nd: loss is just a couple of pips)

with 10/12pips SL your second position is probably only 5-6 pips higher than your original entry..

Did you ever recalculate if it is worthy ..and more profit in the end.... e.g. last 100 trades..?


* how often is the second position also executed:
- if often more than 50% why not enter always a bit later with the full position and SL 6 pips
- if less than 50%: why not enter always with full position...

I don't always take 2nd position, did run a fixed order 1/2 way, but prefer to take 2nd position manually these days, the spikes which go straight to your SL, fill the 2nd position and SL it in seconds which annoys me.

2nd position can have 66% - 33% of the loss depending on it's entry, I don't have many losers anyway so it definately works out better. ( ignoring STUPID Trades see below )

There is a MAJOR downside though with this :-


It's way to easy to think, hey it's just a spike quick move the SL and take a 3rd or 4th position and get emotional and blow large chunks of your account ( guess who did that Wednesday on that down move which surprised us all )



answers :-


* how often is the second position also executed: ( 50% area sounds about right )
- if often more than 50% why not enter always a bit later with the full position and SL 6 pips ( Cause 50% of the time your left with no trade / profit at all )
- if less than 50%: why not enter always with full position size an the original entry and SL 6pips

I don't strive for that kinda accuracy, I find I have a string of SL hits which nickel and dim me to death pretty quickly.

Still working on my method, I'd like to run tighter SL's and single larger position to prevent above, will be testing a tweak over the weekend
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #419
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:19pm Nov 9, 2012 6:19pm
hi C-12,

would you mind commenting on the zones I tried to plot above current price. Only higher TF. Is there anything I did major wrong?
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  • #420
  • Nov 10, 2012 1:39am Nov 10, 2012 1:39am
Quoting Turveyd
I don't always take 2nd position, did run a fixed order 1/2 way, but prefer to take 2nd position manually these days, the spikes which go straight to your SL, fill the 2nd position and SL it in seconds which annoys me.

2nd position can have 66% - 33% of the loss depending on it's entry, I don't have many losers anyway so it definately works out better. ( ignoring STUPID Trades see below )
Nice insight here Turveyd. Definitely warrants further investigation.

I was looking at Red's trade management and he would add to losers without any problems, which is very different to how Sam Seiden teaches (placing a stop directly behind the level. I've also looked at KennyZ's trades and noticed he would often allow his trades to go seriously offside before heading 100's of pips in the intended direction.

I guess this really comes down to experience and how much draw down you can tolerate.

A couple of Red's charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post5209877

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post5182243
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