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  • #12,501
  • Nov 9, 2012 1:26am Nov 9, 2012 1:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I see. A downward channel has been established. Before London open, the fate of the Aussie may be already written on the walls. IMO

Not to scale.
Hi DB,

The price is very well intact with the uptrend on H4, & i don't know if the bears have enough strength to breach the 1.0400...

A down move may be considered only after the breach of 1.04 level... IMO
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  • #12,502
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:47am Nov 9, 2012 6:47am
Quoting FX-Pro
Hi DB,

The price is very well intact with the uptrend on H4, & i don't know if the bears have enough strength to breach the 1.0400...

A down move may be considered only after the breach of 1.04 level... IMO
Waking up and see the 1.0400 was left behind. As mentioned before London open, the fate of the Aussie had been written on the walls. I don't use the conventional way of breaching supports to determine the trend change. A trend change was seeded well before 1.0400 breaching. It started on 11/7. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,503
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:50am Nov 9, 2012 6:50am
wasnt expecting it to touch btl today...
let see if it close below tl 4h chart.




Quoting FX-Pro
Hi DB,

The price is very well intact with the uptrend on H4, & i don't know if the bears have enough strength to breach the 1.0400...

A down move may be considered only after the breach of 1.04 level... IMO
  • #12,504
  • Nov 9, 2012 6:51am Nov 9, 2012 6:51am
Quoting DaddyBear
Waking up and see the 1.0400 was left behind. As mentioned before London open, the fate of the Aussie had been written on the walls. I don't use the conventional way of breaching supports to determine the trend change. A trend change was seeded well before 1.0400 breaching. It started on 11/7. IMO
S1 may serve as a temp. support.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,505
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:09am Nov 9, 2012 7:09am
Quoting DaddyBear
Waking up and see the 1.0400 was left behind. As mentioned before London open, the fate of the Aussie had been written on the walls. I don't use the conventional way of breaching supports to determine the trend change. A trend change was seeded well before 1.0400 breaching. It started on 11/7. IMO
Good forecasting... as always...
  • #12,506
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:15am Nov 9, 2012 7:15am
Quoting FX-Pro
Good forecasting... as always...
I wouldn't call it a forecasting but a projection only. DB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,507
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:17am Nov 9, 2012 7:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
I wouldn't call it a forecasting but a projection only. DB
what is your projection for NY?
  • #12,508
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:20am Nov 9, 2012 7:20am
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I see. A downward channel has been established. Before London open, the fate of the Aussie may be already written on the walls. IMO

Not to scale.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352441641
The Aussie has reached the LTL so far. A bounce is in the cards.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,509
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:21am Nov 9, 2012 7:21am
Quoting DaddyBear
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352441641
The Aussie has reached the LTL so far. A bounce is in the cards.
lol, i said btl earlier which should be ltl..
guess im hungry..
  • #12,510
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:23am Nov 9, 2012 7:23am
Quoting HelloOz
what is your projection for NY?
A bounce off from S2 is in the cards but I wouldn't think it is a reversal. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,511
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:26am Nov 9, 2012 7:26am
Quoting HelloOz
lol, i said btl earlier which should be ltl..
guess im hungry..
Nobody is wrong in the market just too soon or too late.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343646060
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,512
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:28am Nov 9, 2012 7:28am
Quoting DaddyBear
A bounce off from S2 is in the cards but I wouldn't think it is a reversal. IMO
[Personal]

Resuisse, could you check my PM? DB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,513
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:30am Nov 9, 2012 7:30am
daddy bear... I had checked my mail... Thanks
I am in Seoul and could be back soon.

Hope all's well with you daddy bear



Quoting DaddyBear
[Personal]

Resuisse, could you check my PM? DB
  • #12,514
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:34am Nov 9, 2012 7:34am
Quoting DaddyBear
Nobody is wrong in the market just too soon or too late.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343646060
In order not to be too soon in the market, there are some ways:

Don't keep watching the charts.
Turn off the computer and check periodically.
Wait until the dust settles.
Don't trade at all. [This is the best one.]

IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,515
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:44am Nov 9, 2012 7:44am
Quoting DaddyBear
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352441641
The Aussie has reached the LTL so far. A bounce is in the cards.
A test between 1.0406 and the Pivot is possible. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,516
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:57am Nov 9, 2012 7:57am
Quoting DaddyBear
A test between 1.0406 and the Pivot is possible. IMO
DOW futures is down 70 points. The market is in fear. Risk off.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,517
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:17am Nov 9, 2012 8:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
DOW futures is down 70 points. The market is in fear. Risk off.
Been risk off - I think we may see recovery by the end of the day - back to 1.04

The point being, it's unlikely that any major lines will be broken on Friday. Besides, these days, Fridays are always positive for risk currencies - because there's always fear that Spain will ask for bailout during the weekend.
  • #12,518
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:29am Nov 9, 2012 8:29am
Quoting maximmm
Been risk off - I think we may see recovery by the end of the day - back to 1.04

The point being, it's unlikely that any major lines will be broken on Friday. Besides, these days, Fridays are always positive for risk currencies - because there's always fear that Spain will ask for bailout during the weekend.
At this level, it's too low to short and not too low to long. UoM Consumer Sentiment may bring some power to either the Bull or the Bear.

In H4 chart, the Bear is still in control. Any attempts to test upper limits will be capped by pro Bears. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,519
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:38am Nov 9, 2012 8:38am
What is next? Can I find the answer in a pure candle chart?

I have been thinking the possibility of only using candles to make my judgements. Can this be done without any indicators? I think so. It may give me a clear picture ......
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,520
  • Nov 9, 2012 8:40am Nov 9, 2012 8:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
At this level, it's too low to short and not too low to long. UoM Consumer Sentiment may bring some power to either the Bull or the Bear.

In H4 chart, the Bear is still in control. Any attempts to test upper limits will be capped by pro Bears. IMO
Again - Friday. Downside should be rather limited. I'm not saying I'm going long, but like you said, shorting at these levels is not wise. Having said that, if AUD goes below 1.320, it would be a very bearish signal.
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