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  • #4,561
  • Nov 4, 2012 2:54pm Nov 4, 2012 2:54pm
watching....
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  • #4,562
  • Nov 5, 2012 3:16pm Nov 5, 2012 3:16pm
Catching up on the last few pages, great charts guys. With the US elections, could be an interesting couple of days, take it easy.
  • #4,563
  • Edited 11:49am Nov 6, 2012 10:48am | Edited 11:49am
Anyone else short GOLD 1698 ? Seems like an opportunity

edit: i hope not, because it's not going good at all

There was a heavy spike on Silver and crude oil as well, don't know if has something to do with the US president elections today. I don't know what else could be... but it doesn't seem like technicals to me .... hmm
  • #4,564
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:20pm Nov 6, 2012 8:20pm
A nice little SPF. Got a bit of a squeeze for a while but had some MACD divergence to help me keep the faith. Any thoughts that I should have closed this early based on the basic rules taught here?
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  • #4,565
  • Nov 7, 2012 2:54am Nov 7, 2012 2:54am
Quoting Caesar
A nice little SPF. Got a bit of a squeeze for a while but had some MACD divergence to help me keep the faith. Any thoughts that I should have closed this early based on the basic rules taught here?
Well held Sir, I took the same but got out earlier, 8264, into previous resistance.

Tom is normally out at FTA I believe unless he's got D1 bias, in which case he'll hold for a bigger target.
  • #4,566
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:23am Nov 7, 2012 7:23am
Quoting Quidsey
Well held Sir, I took the same but got out earlier, 8264, into previous resistance.

Tom is normally out at FTA I believe unless he's got D1 bias, in which case he'll hold for a bigger target.

Had my eye on that area. This gave a 4hr SPF as well, used that bias to hold to the lower target. Was prepared to get out the second time back to 8264 but, it just blew through and I took profit after the close near my target.
  • #4,567
  • Nov 7, 2012 7:59am Nov 7, 2012 7:59am
Missed my entry by a pip, this is turning into a very trying week.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...sey/USDCHF.jpg


http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...sey/USDCAD.jpg
  • #4,568
  • Nov 7, 2012 8:15am Nov 7, 2012 8:15am
Quoting Quidsey
Missed my entry by a pip, this is turning into a very trying week.
How did you miss that based on those charts? Don't you use a small buffer? Did you add the spread to the buy order?
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,569
  • Nov 7, 2012 8:42am Nov 7, 2012 8:42am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
How did you miss that based on those charts? Don't you use a small buffer? Did you add the spread to the buy order?
My feed didn't pick it up, my order was on that last swing point 9379 and it came back to 9380. No buffer I'm afraid, maybe I should have one, certainly 1pip for such a move is a pisser.
  • #4,570
  • Nov 7, 2012 10:33am Nov 7, 2012 10:33am
Quoting Quidsey
My feed didn't pick it up, my order was on that last swing point 9379 and it came back to 9380. No buffer I'm afraid, maybe I should have one, certainly 1pip for such a move is a pisser.
You didn't miss it by a pip. You missed it by a pip + spread. Even if it came down to 9379 where you had your buy limit, you wouldn't have been filled. What you see on the chart is the sell price.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
  • #4,571
  • Nov 7, 2012 11:25am Nov 7, 2012 11:25am
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
You didn't miss it by a pip. You missed it by a pip + spread. Even if it came down to 9379 where you had your buy limit, you wouldn't have been filled. What you see on the chart is the sell price.
yes, add a pip and a half.
  • #4,572
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:04pm Nov 7, 2012 12:04pm
Just reading over the thread again and came across this little gem. Check out Tom's chart from 2011 then look at the price action from EU last week. Notice how price breaks below the level, comes back for the RR, Shoots up through the level only to come back down and form a perfect RR. Of course I missed it!

Toms Chart of Barc

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EU H1

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  • #4,573
  • Edited 6:32am Nov 8, 2012 6:06am | Edited 6:32am
Some opportunities from yesterdays session. This one is Johnson & Johnson.

I took the liberty of overlaying some of my quotes from my Twitter feed on this chart. The quote at the bottom (amidst the height of election fever) was cocky - I appreciate that.

But note I posted it a full two days before that level was hit. This is how confident I am with the levels I trade.

I often say to traders, if you take a trade and you get stopped out, you should always be very, very suprised.

That shows you how confident you were in the setup and you should only take trades you are confident in.

We all know that the outcome of any single trade is uncertain but when you pull that trigger it must be with 100% confidence that you are taking a trade that has a clear edge if repeated over time.

Another good indicator is IF you get stopped out you should be able to look back on the trade, smile and say "I would take that same trade again next time".

Getting long off the $69.78 level was about as no brainer as you can get - as was the FTA (the purple line drawn at former swing lows).
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  • #4,574
  • Edited 6:29am Nov 8, 2012 6:19am | Edited 6:29am
Here is another trade from yesterday; I got absolutely nailed here in the Crude Oil.

I took the 87.40's long off the double touch former resistance level combined with 38.2% fib retracement and the beginning of a bull flag formation.

Getting a bounce wasn't a problem - you can see price ran up over 40 ticks to the very minor former support marked with the yellow line.

However, I was looking for more of a swing off this decent area and ended up taking a loss.

I loved this trade. I would take it every time.
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  • #4,575
  • Nov 8, 2012 6:21am Nov 8, 2012 6:21am
Yesterday was pretty busy.

Here is one more. If you follow me on Twitter you probably noticed I called this one live.

Chart 1, below, shows the location of a former D1 swing high here in the SMI (Swiss Market Index)

Guess what I am looking for up there? ;-)
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  • #4,576
  • Edited 6:34am Nov 8, 2012 6:22am | Edited 6:34am
I took that on the H1 SFP (circled) of the D1 swing.

Target was the gap close which also coincided with the FTA (purple line)

When the market gaps (either up or down) and then runs on in the direction it gapped in and then SFP's a major swing, you have to take these trades. They are insanely high probability.

You may wonder why I didn't run this trade further (as it is NOW a D1 SFP & BEOB - the infamous cross bar) and the answer is: When it hit my H1 FTA it was in the middle of the day when the market is still moving. It was an H1 setup and I traded it as one.

I did not know it would become a D1 SFP/ BEOB at that point.

Although I admit it was very likely at that point that it would be, anything can happen and in these circumstances, I like to bank profits - especially if the FTA is hit a long time before the close of the bar. I can then get myself back in an objective mindset and then wait and see what the close is. If that bias is there on the close I can look to re-establish short positions if the setup is present to get me back in.
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  • #4,577
  • Nov 8, 2012 6:55am Nov 8, 2012 6:55am

I wish more of these posts to happen This thread is too good to be that dead!
  • #4,578
  • Nov 8, 2012 2:34pm Nov 8, 2012 2:34pm
Tom,

Firstly, thanks for being such a great mentor to us all.

Background: I started trading demo using most of your guidance in early stages of this thread (June 2011) and had some great success, to what I contribute as beginners luck. I was consistently pulling in 2000+ a month on demo and felt confident about starting a live account.

Now: Now I'm trading live, and have paid a pretty penny for my beginners luck/overconfidence. For whatever reason I shifted away from your teachings and have lost my way. I've had a 30% drawdown on my account and am at the point where I realize I need to tear apart my methods and build it back in a cleaner more efficient manner, and master the concepts and fundamentals of your teachings.

Point TLDR: Are you still hosting webinars and/or groupchat's for the group?

Sometimes trading feels lonely and you need some e-hugs to get your mojo back and your account balance moving up.

Thanks again for your, and everyone's contributions to this great thread.

Sincerely,
Mez
  • #4,579
  • Nov 8, 2012 10:30pm Nov 8, 2012 10:30pm
I feel weird posting 2x in a row, but I just wanted to share, I believe a nice setup is coming for USDCAD, arc is forming nicely and there is confluence with support as well as fib 23.6 retrace.

Should be ready to take by London open if all goes to plan.

feedback/comments welcome, cheers!
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  • #4,580
  • Edited 3:49am Nov 9, 2012 3:30am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting Mezzy
I feel weird posting 2x in a row, but I just wanted to share, I believe a nice setup is coming for USDCAD, arc is forming nicely and there is confluence with support as well as fib 23.6 retrace.

Should be ready to take by London open if all goes to plan.

feedback/comments welcome, cheers!
Welcome Mezzy,
To be honest i prefer the level of the extremes, as it's more clear. However, you can see that it was kinda support last (circled area) and you want support last. It worked pretty well however
I played the AUDCAD instead.
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