Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

Next patch of CNY news is due at 12:30 EST. There should be one more wave before it is heading south again.

in general trading, retracement starts when a base of rejection is formed, as i always mentioned about, i don't try to buy too early nor sell too early, so once a based is formed on about 23.6 when bull is replaced by bear power or , bear is replaced by bull power upon 23.6 control. price have high probability to trade back to 38.2-61.8 depending on trader's expectation.

Therefore, we cannot assume when the trend will start to exhaust, but price action will gives you hint that, after a bull run, bear candles appear, take in control, shes going to down to test good support level or even reversal, but we won't know, a base of rejection form = high probabilty set up can be done with 0.0-23.6 as risks involved.

dollar index one picture is the overall recent outlook, it just meet its 23.6 level on 50sma, notice trend always start to change on 50sma level due to MACD.

When profits takers comes in, seller become buyer, buyer become seller, as price move down or up, trailing stops are taken out, candles momentum become tougher, trend change. So price is always move on live trading on nearing every fibo/trendline, it will move from one box to another. buy when its going up, sell when its going down.

It may take a whole day for price to move from high to low of about 60-100 pip range, but price actually moves in cycle of up down more than few hundred pips, if a trader can learn to catch its momentum, instead of waiting for too far's target. every ranging of 15-45pips is good enough, catch the next boat up down, daily accumulation can be alot.

dollar index 2 is the most nearest price action that we want to trade, from range box point to point, crossing 61.8 have potential to 100.0, 61.8 may be rejected to continue the uptrend on dollar index which is also the overall dollar index one 38.2 area of uptrend's bounce to challenge 23.6-0.0 again.

meanwhile, eur/usd already crosses its us session's barrier on 1.2754, which is why price action suggest to take a trade after every consolidation of support/resistance for breakout. however euro dollar still face a on going barrier on 1.2785 of previous support turn resistance, but due to a base of rejection is formed, price may actually continue its upward momentum later on during frankfurt.


aus usd already tooked the uptrend view on 61.8 buy limits/bids up, and attempt to challenge 23.6 which was previously mentioned 1.0445 important level for bulls to dominate which was also hi low of 61.8 downtrend of 1.0621-1.0150.

61.8 is a hedging area for sell buy limits with stops above.

failure of hour 1's 50sma on hour1 to gain control of 50sma soon will show a higher low, which may send price lower back to 61.8 on daily low and even back to 1.0328 area.

fundamental would be more of yesterday as we have bids rate and draghi conference, things should be cool down before us session,unless later most results continue to turn red, and more hiccups of news comes in, bear will take control for sell off again.

The next move/wave is a major one.

Light and sound are in wave forms. Human mentality is in wave forms as well. Whenever I mention waves, they are the footprints of human mentality in the trading activities.

5% thanks for your contribution. Keep up your good job.

Let me use this cartoon again to visualize what I see .......

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352219124

I think I'm going to switch to your broker - because those charts are radical!^^

Where is that "?"? I'd leave this to anyone who is interested in this "?" to find out himself.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352432576

You are welcome. The broker is DB & Co.

Market seems optimistic about the upcoming Chinese data. I say market is wrong. Let's see who is right^^

Just barely above expectations. This rally is not going to last.

Stopped out to the pip. Better not keep going down, now. I'll have to have a word or two with who ever is responsible.

My "?" = "R".

Who is responsible for your own decision?

I would not say it's my responsibility that price rose to my stop, though it was my responsibility to be responsible. Just getting a little peeved at quite a few of my trades getting stopped out to the pip.

aus/usd remain well bid on the general trend from current daily move from 1.0150, as it also bounces off each sell off on support level, however 1.0445 remains a hurdle.

the recent daily high on 1.0480's high point shows an indication of reversal or lower high or temporary top, or lower high, as long price do not sustain above 1.0445 area, price is likely to trade back down and try to crack support.

its still a battle meanwhile, as daily is showing upwards momentum but 1.0445 remains an obstacle, frankfurt/london should give an idea of the overall trend soon.

This happens all the time to a lot of people. When you place tight stops, this may happen 9 out of 10 times unless you can pick the tops and the bottoms.

he picked the top, that is where his stop loss is, right on the pip.

This is what I see. A downward channel has been established. Before London open, the fate of the Aussie may be already written on the walls. IMO

Not to scale.

Huh... my reply to DB was gonna be - check US index and you'll see why. Instead we all received this great explanation. I recommend to everybody to read it. Twice.

Great and thanks 5%.

BR