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AUD/USD

  • #56,041
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:08am Nov 8, 2012 12:08am
Quoting Eulogy
when you go calculate it, $ for $ margin requirements, a US$1 move in XAU is only about the same as a 6-7 pip move in the AUDUSD. Certainly volatile but not exactly the definition of craziness.
crazy for off hours for sure but ya not jump off the roof crazy just unusualy because
of election time etc.. Interesting times
  • #56,042
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:12am Nov 8, 2012 12:12am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Maximmm,

Do you really think it is just coincidence that markets rallied due to US elections then all of a sudden Euro Zone is in another crisis? What happened to the Euro zone for the past 6 weeks, was it fixed and now all of a sudden "broken" again? No, they were waiting for elections to blow over before making any drastic moves and it looks to me that the move is going to be down... This is all just my opinion though and I could be wrong, won't be the first time. This is why we had the largest drop in the DOW the day after any other presidential...
I completely agree with you that we'll see a lot of selling in the coming days/weeks. I'm just saying that Obama is not to blame - and the sell off would have taken place if Romney were in power as well. In fact, I think the sell off would have been much greater (especially at first) if Romney was elected.

The initial rally that we say after the elections was based on 'emotional trading'. For a brief moment Europe was forgotten - and then a few hours later, horrible numbers came out from Germany and Draghi announced that recession has reached Germany - taking the spotlight from elections and reigniting European fears to a whole new level.

The point being, Obama is not the main cause of the sell off - it's Europe. Although I have to admit - the fiscal cliff will come into play a bit later on and it won't be pretty - due to the bipartisan obstacle you've mentioned.
  • #56,043
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:22am Nov 8, 2012 12:22am
Quoting maximmm
I completely agree with you that we'll see a lot of selling in the coming days/weeks. I'm just saying that Obama is not to blame - and the sell off would have taken place if Romney were in power as well. In fact, I think the sell off would have been much greater (especially at first) if Romney was elected.

The initial rally that we say after the elections was based on 'emotional trading'. For a brief moment Europe was forgotten - and then a few hours later, horrible numbers came out from Germany and Draghi announced that recession has reached...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,044
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:23am Nov 8, 2012 12:23am
Quoting maximmm
I completely agree with you that we'll see a lot of selling in the coming days/weeks. I'm just saying that Obama is not to blame - and the sell off would have taken place if Romney were in power as well. In fact, I think the sell off would have been much greater (especially at first) if Romney was elected.

The initial rally that we say after the elections was based on 'emotional trading'. For a brief moment Europe was forgotten - and then a few hours later, horrible numbers came out from Germany and Draghi announced that recession has reached...
Hi Maximmm,

I completely agree with what you have said here, especially in regards to what would happen if Romney were to be elected. I re-read my post and it may have come across a little more harsh then I wanted it to so I hope you did not take offense. It was purely my opinion on what I thought had happened and what will happen.

Now the trick will be in timing when to get in! By the way, did you get a chance to review the document compiled by Gino? I thought it was an excellent overview backed with charts, graphs, and cold hard facts. Also, towards the end was a nice little summary. If you didn't get a chance to go through it I suggest just taking a quick glance.

Enjoy the rest of your day Maximmm!
  • #56,045
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:48am Nov 8, 2012 12:48am
Some Provocative view for you Aussie Bulls...

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/china...bFkszibAA.html

with all these bad sounding news coming abouts in China.... i wonder what the Australians' would do..... like i said... the China easing is a bad news.... sooner or later australia will have to play ball with china, or lose their major trading partner....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,046
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:54am Nov 8, 2012 12:54am
Quoting fxtyrant
Attracting buyers at 1.04 just so that they can screw the bulls and drop this things down to 1.0330 😉
3rd Weekly TL rejection kicking in with Daily & H4 divergences being play out here..

the short & wrong crowd are starting to capitulated & some may had flipped over to the long camp carrying underwater positions..
Attached Image
  • #56,047
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:15am Nov 8, 2012 1:15am
Quoting fxtyrant
Some Provocative view for you Aussie Bulls...

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/china...bFkszibAA.html

with all these bad sounding news coming abouts in China.... i wonder what the Australians' would do..... like i said... the China easing is a bad news.... sooner or later australia will have to play ball with china, or lose their major trading partner....
Yea, I've been hearing crap like the "Imminent crash of the US Dollar" too but guess what? USD is still here and still has reserve currency status.

Careful about deciphering "fundamental data" or "news" as it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to kick in right away, if at all. But I'm sure you already knew that... Australia has been in and out of "contraction" the entire year but their currency is outperforming most all of the other majors. Why is this?
  • #56,048
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:21am Nov 8, 2012 1:21am
Quoting cdndollar
3rd Weekly TL rejection kicking in with Daily & H4 divergences being play out here..

the short & wrong crowd are starting to capitulated & some may had flipped over to the long camp carrying underwater positions..
Attachment
Good... now let the games begin, also... Pending orders to the downside is now looking REALLY hefty now... hopefully that should attract AUDUSD to go Down and trigger them,
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,049
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:29am Nov 8, 2012 1:29am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea, I've been hearing crap like the "Imminent crash of the US Dollar" too but guess what? USD is still here and still has reserve currency status.

Careful about deciphering "fundamental data" or "news" as it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to kick in right away, if at all. But I'm sure you already knew that... Australia has been in and out of "contraction" the entire year but their currency is outperforming most all of the other majors. Why is this?
you sure they are outperforming since the 2008 post US market crash spike up to 1.08?? all i see in the weekly since the Post market crash is that we are making Lower and Lower Highs.....
You really sure it is out performing?? for me the AUDUSD would be outperforming IF we make Higher Highs like 1.10???? but i dont see that happening... Whys that?? OH LET me see... AUDUSD has been lowering and lowering interest rates from above 5% around 2008 to now around 3%..... so tell me.... is Australia really outperforming? it may have been strong but like any other country who base their economy primarily on Exports and Natural resources, they die out eventually.... Need i mention classic example of Nigeria and UAE?? those country like Australia were heavily dependent on their natural resources.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,050
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:33am Nov 8, 2012 1:33am
I don't think you can consider a Dollar crash or the death of the dollar until we start trading around 73 USDX. Before that could even possibly happen all the dirty float emerging currencies would start to fall first much harder before dollar would resume a path of destruction.

Not to mention a premtive measure would see a dry up in MM accounts again like in 2008 and if they flock to dollars than it would further boost. I know that the CNY futures just started trading and it will be interesting to see how the volume picks up these next couple years because that will be a test of a new money flow that has yet to really be seen
  • #56,051
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:35am Nov 8, 2012 1:35am
hi

i think now need open sel order
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email me : pipspro88@gmail
  • #56,052
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:36am Nov 8, 2012 1:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
you sure they are outperforming since the 2008 post US market crash spike up to 1.08?? all i see in the weekly since the Post market crash is that we are making Lower and Lower Highs.....
You really sure it is out performing?? for me the AUDUSD would be outperforming IF we make Higher Highs like 1.10???? but i dont see that happening... Whys that?? OH LET me see... AUDUSD has been lowering and lowering interest rates from above 5% around 2008 to now around 3%..... so tell me.... is Australia really outperforming? it may have been strong but like...
Uhhh...try reading my post again. I said THIS YEAR But yea, taking a look at the monthly charts AUD has outperformed just about EVERY OTHER CURRENCY. Take a look for yourself and tell me I'm wrong. I'm not talking about "fundamental data" just pure market price. Pull up a chart man.

Look at an AUD/USD chart, an EUR/AUD chart, a GBP/AUD chart, yea. You get my point right?
  • #56,053
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:37am Nov 8, 2012 1:37am
Quoting jplazard
I don't think you can consider a Dollar crash or the death of the dollar until we start trading around 73 USDX. Before that could even possibly happen all the dirty float emerging currencies would start to fall first much harder before dollar would resume a path of destruction.

Not to mention a premtive measure would see a dry up in MM accounts again like in 2008 and if they flock to dollars than it would further boost. [b]I know that the CNY futures just started trading and it will be interesting to see how the volume picks up these next couple...
And i am NOT one bit confident about the chinese economy.... its showing conflicting images to me... you have the chiense equity market falling 14% on a yeat to date basis.... but yet you're telling me their GDP growth is 7%?!
Come on.... the sooner we realize that the Country can only grow as much as the Businesses there Grows... if Business there are contracting, how the hell is the Chinese economy growing?! Government manipulation.... and this my friend cant last forever.... because market will see that, business in china stimply arent growing so no reason for China to be growing at 7% my friends....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,054
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:38am Nov 8, 2012 1:38am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea, I've been hearing crap like the "Imminent crash of the US Dollar" too but guess what? USD is still here and still has reserve currency status.

Careful about deciphering "fundamental data" or "news" as it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to kick in right away, if at all. But I'm sure you already knew that... Australia has been in and out of "contraction" the entire year but their currency is outperforming most all of the other majors. Why is this?
Stuff like that is going to take decades, and it should be fine as long as a) China OR Japan don't liquidate their treasuries on the open market b) People think the fed will continue printing money to service their debt and c) People still use the US dollar to settle commodities trades. Stuff like losing reserve currency status takes ages to happen, but once it does its like a tide that never stops -> see British pound when their empire collapsed.

Australian dollar has been doing good because its bonds are perceived as an AAA rated safe heaven and the China growth story which makes up the risk portion has picked up lately with its lows in Sept.
  • #56,055
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:42am Nov 8, 2012 1:42am
What do you guys see as the probability hapening more?

A. Open ended operations continues as the notational amount open ended until Ben's term is up
or/
B. Increase across the board even possibly looking into buyups of Munis
  • #56,056
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:46am Nov 8, 2012 1:46am
Quoting jplazard
What do you guys see as the probability hapening more?

A. Open ended operations continues as the notational amount open ended until Ben's term is up
or/
B. Increase across the board even possibly looking into buyups of Munis
C. For me i see a Renewed Concern over Global Growth like the one we saw around the first quarter of 2012, and that US Dollar gets Bought up HUGE..... No reason to deny it when IMF, Worldbank is forcasting Global Growth rate to fall lower and lower year after year.....
if you thought 2008 was a terrible mess, wait till the next bubble collapse....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #56,057
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:55am Nov 8, 2012 1:55am
Quoting Iro
Stuff like that is going to take decades, and it should be fine as long as a) China OR Japan don't liquidate their treasuries on the open market b) People think the fed will continue printing money to service their debt and c) People still use the US dollar to settle commodities trades. Stuff like losing reserve currency status takes ages to happen, but once it does its like a tide that never stops -> see British pound when their empire collapsed.

Australian dollar has been doing good because its bonds are perceived as an AAA rated safe heaven...
This was exactly my point when Tyrant said to take a look at that Bloomberg clip titled "Change in China Regime: China Collapse" as a "case for the bulls like it was going to devalue AUD right away. I was just trying to make a point. These things take time, a lot of time...
  • #56,058
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:59am Nov 8, 2012 1:59am
The only way you would see a real number come out of China from growth is the same way Madoff was exposed ppl where fleeing back to cash and requested money back only to find it was all gone. Now China can continue this for some time in cloaking their numbers but when the next bubble comes whatever that maybe we will find once again just like every crash we have had who was swimming naked when the tide goes out.
  • #56,059
  • Nov 8, 2012 2:02am Nov 8, 2012 2:02am
Quoting 100PipsADay
If you're going to long anything at the moment then AUD is your best bet. Good luck BrockLesnar!
Also NZD.
  • #56,060
  • Nov 8, 2012 2:11am Nov 8, 2012 2:11am
Quoting Ken A
Also NZD.
after last night? im eyeing for 0.8050
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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