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  • #12,361
  • Nov 6, 2012 10:01pm Nov 6, 2012 10:01pm
Quoting maximmm
Now it seems likely that Obama will win.

I do not believe that USD will lose much value b/c of this win. I do think that USD will skyrocket in a week or a week and a half from now - due to fiscal cliff negotiations.

Basically, I'm leaning towards the continuation of may analogy.
may analogy? sell in may and go away? well i also hope for a sell off, because market moves faster, and profits is faster too, also i want to long on low again. longing at this few areas 1.02-1.06 for long term is not ideal, but somewhere off parity below is very ideal for the past 2-3years.
  • #12,362
  • Nov 6, 2012 10:03pm Nov 6, 2012 10:03pm
May analogy - er... not quite sell in may and go away^^
  • #12,363
  • Edited 10:27pm Nov 6, 2012 10:07pm | Edited 10:27pm
price action :? buy stop 1.0445 area, easily 15 pips advanced and breakeven. i also hook on the buy on 1.0416 area after min 5 was consolidated for sometime if anyone notice some min 5 pin hammer was formed. when the down fall 1.0425 was taken out, it will shows that the bid is valid, and price will overlapped and go higher. this is a bid buy momentum pattern. anyway it just happened to eur/usd as well 80 pips up move in a short while?

which is why pa always win, it moves the fastest, buy above resistance, sell below support.

Quote
r turn s position is valid if price sustained above resistance, which was 1.0445, buyers can add to buy limit on that area with very very tight stop loss like 3-5 pips, if the upmove is meant to happen because no point to go buy high if breakout does not happen. position should also be trailed to be given chance http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=156106

my short out look is only to short back to s1/s2, which was 1.0416-1.0405, that just retracement trading, but still against trend, technically, its supposed to add on retrace, buy limits on support or aka r turn s. if not one is against trend.

if the upmove is valid it must now sustained above 1.0445, where more limits buy will be in place, if it does not sustained above 1.0445, means r turn s is not valid to be fake out.

http://www.stochastic-macd.com/tstw24traders.htm check this guy out , this guy is a known specialist for system trading that many banks consulted, the market moves alot in such momentum trading of buy patterns, sell is normally happened in sell off and very quick in hours, sell is harder to see pattern, sell is also reason for buy positions to be trailed out adding with reversed sell stops.

But normally or not, market always favor a buy momentum due to many reasons such as swaps, and against usd index or jpy, to bring stocks, indices and commodities higher. but risk situation kicks in will send for sell off in short while.

which is why before qe3, market moves like steriod in eur/usd and aus/usd where as also reached 1.0621 again.
  • #12,364
  • Nov 6, 2012 10:32pm Nov 6, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting 5percent
price action :? buy stop 1.0445 area, easily 15 pips advanced and breakeven. i also hook on the buy on 1.0416 area after min 5 was consolidated for sometime if anyone notice some min 5 pin hammer was formed. when the down fall 1.0425 was taken out, it will shows that the bid is valid, and price will overlapped and go higher. this is a bid buy momentum pattern. anyway it just happened to eur/usd as well 80 pips up move in a short while?

which is why pa always win, it moves the fastest, buy above resistance, sell below support.



my short out look...
I agree. Though again, 1.06 is the key level in my book.
  • #12,365
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:13am Nov 7, 2012 12:13am
i always emphasize only 1 thing, never question the market nor be biased. market can do whatever it wants, just be on the green side and get in profits and banked them and get out when times call.

if anyone check most broker's trader reports, retailers are shorting, i would go long on add on retrace on r turn s with very tight stop if uptrend is meant to continue, because often or not retailers are wrong and being instiled with all the wrong mindset and culture of trading -> RSI? CCI? they want u to short it for retracement and then caught u in it if u don't take profit, its only retracement not reversal.

3 factors.
cut losers short don't marry it
ride winners-> if breakout happens ur lucky,
follow the trend- > what the daily says?


indicators? the only thing a person ever need is macd
price action already give a call for high probability trade, if retailers learn to not see numbers about hi low, but see candles.

pa just move 20 pips from r turn s on 1.0445-43, a hint on buy limits i gave earlier. but apparently retailers want to short high. if not anyone could be on profit 20 pips already and not be stress about going against trend.
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  • #12,366
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:22am Nov 7, 2012 12:22am
Quoting Daytrader74
getting close to margin call daddy, holding gold position long from 1725
I hope u took daddy advice
  • #12,367
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:26am Nov 7, 2012 12:26am
Quoting 5percent
i always emphasize only 1 thing, never question the market nor be biased. market can do whatever it wants, just be on the green side and get in profits and banked them and get out when times call.

if anyone check most broker's trader reports, retailers are shorting, i would go long on add on retrace on r turn s with very tight stop if uptrend is meant to continue, because often or not retailers are wrong and being instiled with all the wrong mindset and culture of trading -> RSI? CCI? they want u to short it for retracement and then caught u in...
I'm emphasizing 1.06 as the key point to reversal^^

Again, there is no trend. If 1.06 gets broken, then there will be a trend. Unless... you are looking at 5 minute chart.
  • #12,368
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:30am Nov 7, 2012 12:30am
Quoting maximmm
I'm emphasizing 1.06 as the key point to reversal^^

Again, there is no trend. If 1.06 gets broken, then there will be a trend. Unless... you are looking at 5 minute chart.
i don't know what is trend to u, but up trend is higher low, ? sorry to say this but, what is trend to u? 1.0150- 1.0450? 300 pips? in btw 1.0220-1.0450 still not uptrend?

or ur looking too far on weekly? or even daily? i know everyone have their own mindset and trading culture, and target, but if a trader adds shorts from 1.02-1.05 then price went to 1.06? what the purpose of shorting in red margin?

why don't a trader buy and follow the current momentum? that way pips are into your account, while i am currently stealing pips from the market.?

these are basics: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcRnX6Bcjuc i just google any video.

if trend is meant go down down i will short with sell stops upon confirmation of rejection, meanwhile i personally advice not go against a obama win, risk on sentiment period?

so if 1.06 is meant go down, i will short from 1.0570 area and while ur already in negative swaps from 1.02-1.04 holding for weeks? if u have an existing short?
  • #12,369
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:49am Nov 7, 2012 12:49am
btw, I'm shorting nzd, not aud - if only b/c 1.06 is a bit far away in the aud triangle, whereas the nzd triangle line is much closer - in fact, it just touched it.

Furthermore, nzd is showing adx and volume divergence.
  • #12,370
  • Nov 7, 2012 12:52am Nov 7, 2012 12:52am
AUD - there are good reasons to short it -

Furthermore, AUD should ideally start its downward movement not at 1.06, but earlier. Obviously it's a good idea to wait for a confirmation - a red candle on 4 hour chart, or daily.
  • #12,371
  • Nov 7, 2012 2:57am Nov 7, 2012 2:57am
Quoting maximmm
AUD - there are good reasons to short it -

Furthermore, AUD should ideally start its downward movement not at 1.06, but earlier. Obviously it's a good idea to wait for a confirmation - a red candle on 4 hour chart, or daily.
1.0488 could be a good level to short
  • #12,372
  • Nov 7, 2012 8:51am Nov 7, 2012 8:51am
I was dismay at Obama win but it gave me a high level to short last night. Wake up with some profit. I think the bull is not done yet. There shall be another attempt to test 1.05 IMO.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,373
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:03am Nov 7, 2012 9:03am
Still have no power so far. It's the 10th day already. In order to tap into my neighbor's network, I have to hold my notebook against the window facing his house. It's really pain in the neck.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,374
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:05am Nov 7, 2012 9:05am
Quoting DaddyBear
Still have no power so far. It's the 10th day already. In order to tap into my neighbor's network, I have to hold my notebook against the window facing his house. It's really pain in the neck.
Waiting for the power company crew to repair the damages of power outage is like picking the top or the bottom. I know they will come but just don't know when.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,375
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:10am Nov 7, 2012 9:10am
Dow dropped more than 200 points. This is the Wall Street's reaction to Obama win. He is so lay back to make some real changes he promised 4 years ago. And yet so many Americans pick him. I guess so many people are on the supports of Obama administration to survive now. This is a sign of the weakness of the US.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,376
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:13am Nov 7, 2012 9:13am
SPX dropped 22 point so far. People say the Aussie is co-related to SPX. I'd say there is none.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,377
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:16am Nov 7, 2012 9:16am
Quoting DaddyBear
SPX dropped 22 point so far. People say the Aussie is co-related to SPX. I'd say there is none.
there used to be similar pattern, but now more or less every price is like on their own, we can have eur falling down, and aud side way or going up even, and gold up and aud go down.

gold sustained but eur sell off etc.

but usd index is inversely of euro dollar very closely.
  • #12,378
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:27am Nov 7, 2012 9:27am
Quoting 5percent
there used to be similar pattern, but now more or less every price is like on their own, we can have eur falling down, and aud side way or going up even, and gold up and aud go down.

gold sustained but eur sell off etc.

but usd index is inversely of euro dollar very closely.
Agree.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,379
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:30am Nov 7, 2012 9:30am
Is the Aussie going to bounce off from the Pivot? Some people may say I should have ..... 2 hours later when it tests 1.048xx again.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,380
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:31am Nov 7, 2012 9:31am
Quoting DaddyBear
Dow dropped more than 200 points. This is the Wall Street's reaction to Obama win. He is so lay back to make some real changes he promised 4 years ago. And yet so many Americans pick him. I guess so many people are on the supports of Obama administration to survive now. This is a sign of the weakness of the US.
err.... let's just say that this is nothing in comparison to what would have happened if Romney took power. It would have been one huge, continuous move down, without the yesterday's rally.
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