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AUD/USD

  • #55,881
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:13pm Nov 6, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I never once said to rely "solely" on support resistance zones. There are obviously trend lines, candlestick patterns. But the larger the time frame the more significant they are whether they are trend lines, candle stick patterns, or support / resistance zones.

As far as EUR/AUD goes I don't consider that "top picking" as much as resuming its dominant trend which is DOWN. Start with the monthly, then weekly, then work your way down to the Daily. That is more long term trend trading and it works for me.

Like I said, nothing is black and white...
Heres how I see it, Like a clock all the gears move together to create multi-directional movement ... So I read what is occurring... and trade only what is occurring.. Im not arguing anything is more right just discussing perception of trend and momentum
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  • #55,882
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:18pm Nov 6, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting Iro
Nothing wrong with catching falling knives if you use bigger timeframes with larger stop losses than intraday.

Here's one trade I got yesterday which caught the lows nearly to the pip!
Your sell limit is in a dangerous place if a BO occurs you will be in neg PL quickly.. looking at the chart at a glance I see that 1.06 is the next logical place to put a sell... otherwise I'd stay out... not worth it for me and parity would be a good place to long
  • #55,883
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:19pm Nov 6, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting sidhujag
Well I try to use math but you can get at a top bottom but you never know if it is a top bottom all you have is %'s by using a fairly tight stop looking at h4 or daily you can sometimes get it... and it pays for 100 losses in the end... thats the only way to succeed long term you have to hit a few home runs and have little losses... the systems that risk alot to earn little simply don't work.
I agree with you about keeping the losses small. I use a 15 pip stop most of the time, and usually have my first 3rd off at 45 pips.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,884
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:21pm Nov 6, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting bogus
I agree with you about keeping the losses small. I use a 15 pip stop most of the time, and usually have my first 3rd off at 45 pips.
yea 15 pips stop is pretty crazy if you can get it right... usually these are the daily or weekly trend changes retracements that you are trying to hook on to when you say you risk 15 for xx pips... I'm generally not interested in hourly retracements unless they are within the sell range on the higher tf's for example...
  • #55,885
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:37pm Nov 6, 2012 5:37pm
That little line behind it is the stoploss. I'm actually thinking its too tight now so I'll move it back abit.

Though if Spain don't request a bailout I reckon the triangle will break to the downside to tell you the truth.

I'm still dumbfounded as to why gold and oil spiked so hard this morning. Maybe the talking heads will give us a reason later in the day.
  • #55,886
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:40pm Nov 6, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting Iro
That little line behind it is the stoploss. I'm actually thinking its too tight now so I'll move it back abit.

Though if Spain don't request a bailout I reckon the triangle will break to the downside to tell you the truth.

I'm still dumbfounded as to why gold and oil spiked so hard this morning. Maybe the talking heads will give us a reason later in the day.
anticipation of election results... also preparing for its next big move. Notice that its been 26 weeks this week since the last major low in gold.. so we were due for some bullish PA.

26 weeks is above average in length already... most of the time a low is made within 18-23 weeks.
  • #55,887
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:44pm Nov 6, 2012 5:44pm
If you say so, though I do find it weird its not US dollar weakness but gold/oil strength.
  • #55,888
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:54pm Nov 6, 2012 5:54pm
Having trouble uploading a chart. These are entries that could be taken on e/a this week as I see them. I got 3. My second tp is 90 and the last lot comes off at what I see as a reversal. I aim to compound.Price never retraced to my 15 pip stop after the break of the low.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,889
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:57pm Nov 6, 2012 5:57pm
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The RBA may have recently begun printing Aussie dollars to satisfy overseas currency demand from foreign central banks, says Gareth Berry, FX Strategists at UBS; "the evidence for this is compelling (but not yet conclusive)."

The UBS Analyst notes: "Australia's FX reserves suddenly began to increase in August. Deposits of foreign institutions held at the RBA lurched upwards then too - and by a similar amount. It is as though freshly-minted Australian dollars are being sold directly to foreign central banks and the proceeds added to the RBA's pool of FX reserves."

What about the currency implications for the AUD/USD? According to Mr. Berry, "Meeting the demand in this way would ease upward pressure on AUD, but a sharp fall is not expected. We stick to our forecasts, and look for AUDUSD to fall to parity in 3m."
  • #55,890
  • Nov 6, 2012 5:58pm Nov 6, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting Iro
If you say so, though I do find it weird its not US dollar weakness but gold/oil strength.
Yea well usd is thought of as a safe haven similar to gold.. there are times it rises and falls together.. it was probabyl a few banks or a single big player that bought it up thus threw the correlation off. You usually see these as a quick jerk and there is wher eyou figure out what is strong and what is weak and get in on a retracement or bear target.
  • #55,891
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:22pm Nov 6, 2012 7:22pm
Multiple rejections in-front of L/T TL/Resists.. bull liquidity now running thin.. time for some M/T correction

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  • #55,892
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:26pm Nov 6, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting cdndollar
Multiple rejections in-front of L/T TL/Resists.. bull liquidity now running thin.. time for some M/T correction

Attachment
I'm having a hard time reading this chart CdnDollar...

Could you explain a little more please? I'm interested in your analysis.
  • #55,893
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:26pm Nov 6, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting bogus
Having trouble uploading a chart. These are entries that could be taken on e/a this week as I see them. I got 3. My second tp is 90 and the last lot comes off at what I see as a reversal. I aim to compound.Price never retraced to my 15 pip stop after the break of the low.
well done.
nice clean chart without ugly indicators and lines.
As Above, So Below
  • #55,894
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:32pm Nov 6, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm having a hard time reading this chart CdnDollar...

Could you explain a little more please? I'm interested in your analysis.
Hes betting on the daily stochastic being in extreme overbought levels with signs of rolling over
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,895
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:36pm Nov 6, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Hes betting on the daily stochastic being in extreme overbought levels with signs of rolling over
I see. Thanks for clarifying Tyrant.
  • #55,896
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:47pm Nov 6, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I see. Thanks for clarifying Tyrant.
Back to sleep, pretty late in london, but green pips to all, do watchout around these levels, high % fib retrace levels may act as resistance.
61.8%, 78.2% these are the fibos in play me think
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,897
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:15pm Nov 6, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting Tim_isoara
Hmmm why dont you short around 1.0393?
You see why?4 hr cloud was and still is bulish.
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  • #55,898
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:20pm Nov 6, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting plesac
You see why?4 hr cloud was and still is bulish.
OK. What you see on 4H now?
  • #55,899
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:43pm Nov 6, 2012 8:43pm
Early signs of game over for Romney now as he blows out in the betting.
Short cover in equities last night can be seen as a Romney hope rally.. already corrected as disappointment follows so I would be selling equities..

Back to currencies question is who knows what Obama does QE100 ? thats why Im more inclined to play the crosses!

eur/aud and gbp/aud - sell those and a decisive break 1.22 and 1.52 are my key levels for another assault at all time lows.
  • #55,900
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:47pm Nov 6, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting lasty
Early signs of game over for Romney now as he blows out in the betting.
Short cover in equities last night can be seen as a Romney hope rally.. already corrected as disappointment follows so I would be selling equities..

Back to currencies question is who knows what Obama does QE100 ? thats why Im more inclined to play the crosses!

eur/aud and gbp/aud - sell those and a decisive break 1.22 and 1.52 are my key levels for another assault at all time lows.
QE100? Why sell equities then? That is definitely bullish for Equities...

Your post contradicts itself
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