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  • #55,861
  • Edited 3:00am Nov 6, 2012 2:48am | Edited 3:00am
Before closing doors, the RBA did it again...
Lost something, opened new short positions , let's see, lol.
Better watch out; before go to sleep, the RBA will up this again...
I'll shop after the drop
  • #55,862
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:53am Nov 6, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Ken A
This might not be irrelevant but have a look at daily candle few days before and post US elections on Tuesday November 04, 2008.

02 Nov 2004 (US elections) daily candle (USDX) as well tells the same story for that day.
  • #55,863
  • Nov 6, 2012 11:41am Nov 6, 2012 11:41am
It seems like it's heading up again...
  • #55,864
  • Nov 6, 2012 1:18pm Nov 6, 2012 1:18pm
took profit could be hitting long term resistance barriers expecting rough trading over next couple weeks as longs die out
  • #55,865
  • Nov 6, 2012 1:33pm Nov 6, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting FxLapozi
It seems like it's heading up again...
Ya, don't know where is this going; this is highly bearish, but look at it...
I'll shop after the drop
  • #55,866
  • Nov 6, 2012 1:54pm Nov 6, 2012 1:54pm
Price Action is suggesting AUD/JPY is heading up to next major resistance which sits at 88.50 or so.

I will look to keep buying on pullbacks when Williams % shows "over sold" on the H1 time frame.

EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD have broken major support so I will look to SELL on major pullbacks once Williams % shows "over bought" on H1 time frame.

Anybody who has been following my thread (or my posts in here) know why I am bullish on JPY cross pairs as we have broken major resistance zones and trend lines towards the upside. Also, fundamentals have been saying this all year, just needed the right setup.

Currently up over 950 pips with open JPY positions.

**Looking at monthly/weekly AUD/JPY charts we've got another 400-450 pips towards the upside before major resistance. At that time (88.00) I will look to close out all of my positions and build up short positions to ride A/J back down...
  • #55,867
  • Nov 6, 2012 2:10pm Nov 6, 2012 2:10pm
oooops, a jump to 1.0447 without volume, lol.
Remember; you_are_bearish, omg.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #55,868
  • Nov 6, 2012 2:16pm Nov 6, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting Willow
oooops, a jump to 1.0447 without volume, lol.
Remember; you_are_bearish, omg.
  • #55,869
  • Nov 6, 2012 2:30pm Nov 6, 2012 2:30pm
Ya, we probably changed trend, 10 min ago.
I go to sleep, glta.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #55,870
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:08pm Nov 6, 2012 3:08pm
If price is going up, it's bullish.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,871
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:14pm Nov 6, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting bogus
If price is going up, it's bullish.


Unfortunately so many people try to either fight the current trend or pick the tops, both choices result in losses...
  • #55,872
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:54pm Nov 6, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting 100PipsADay


Unfortunately so many people try to either fight the current trend or pick the tops, both choices result in losses...
Yep, I learnt the hard way. Trying to pick which level price will turn off is a skill/art which very few people can do. I can't.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,873
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:05pm Nov 6, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting bogus
Yep, I learnt the hard way. Trying to pick which level price will turn off is a skill/art which very few people can do. I can't.
I suppose picking tops and trend reversals is a little similar to catching a falling knife. I would rather wait for the knife to fall and then pick it up...
  • #55,874
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:10pm Nov 6, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I suppose picking tops and trend reversals is a little similar to catching a falling knife. I would rather wait for the knife to fall and then pick it up...
but how do you know if the knife is already on the ground?
this will be the opposite of picking the top, no ?
  • #55,875
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:13pm Nov 6, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting HelloOz
but how do you know if the knife is already on the ground?
this will be the opposite of picking the top, no ?
Best ways from my experience would be to draw out MAJOR Support & Resistance "zones" from the Weekly and Monthly charts.

The Support and Resistance "zones" are a trader's best chance that price is going to stop, and sooner than later, will reverse. First trades after "picking your top/bottom" should be lower risk trades until position is confirmed.

Obviously nothing is black and white when trading but there are definitely areas of resistance and support on the larger time frames which are of significant importance.
  • #55,876
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:16pm Nov 6, 2012 4:16pm
100 pipsaday I agree with u. I am long from 83.4. At the moment I have my TP at 85.2. I think we are in wave 5 currently
  • #55,877
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:17pm Nov 6, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I suppose picking tops and trend reversals is a little similar to catching a falling knife. I would rather wait for the knife to fall and then pick it up...
Where does catching a falling knife.. top and bottom picking become trend following though?

If you sold the eur/aud downward breakout from triangle against resistance last week and this week.. do you consider that top picking? or trend resumption? If its top picking or bottom picking on the daily but trend trading on the weekly?

What if your near term trend on the hourly is a counter trend trade on the daily?

In my opinion .. trend trading vrs whatever trading is in the eye of the beholder..

What is momentum how can you tell momentum is intact?

IMO its about reading the market constantly, constant position management, letting the psychological wave formations explain sentiment
  • #55,878
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:22pm Nov 6, 2012 4:22pm
Nothing wrong with catching falling knives if you use bigger timeframes with larger stop losses than intraday.

Here's one trade I got yesterday which caught the lows nearly to the pip!
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  • #55,879
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:29pm Nov 6, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting domino
Where does catching a falling knife.. top and bottom picking become trend following though?

If you sold the eur/aud downward breakout from triangle against resistance last week and this week.. do you consider that top picking? or trend resumption? If its top picking or bottom picking on the daily but trend trading on the weekly?

What if your near term trend on the hourly is a counter trend trade on the daily?

In my opinion .. trend trading vrs whatever trading is in the eye of the beholder..

What is momentum how can you tell momentum...
I never once said to rely "solely" on support resistance zones. There are obviously trend lines, candlestick patterns. But the larger the time frame the more significant they are whether they are trend lines, candle stick patterns, or support / resistance zones.

As far as EUR/AUD goes I don't consider that "top picking" as much as resuming its dominant trend which is DOWN. Start with the monthly, then weekly, then work your way down to the Daily. That is more long term trend trading and it works for me.

Like I said, nothing is black and white when it comes to trading so you have to do what works for you. So you're right when saying "trend trading vs whatever trading is in the eye of the beholder.."

I'm just stating what I do in regards to finding major S&R zones on larger time frames then find my entry points from there.

I can say with confidence that if AUD/USD breaks the Weekly downward TL at 1.058 then 1.08 is next. After 1.08 is 1.10. So the MAJOR resistance zone for AUD is 1.08-1.10.

So what I did is look at a larger time frame TL and then above that is a larger time frame resistance "zone." I am confident price will either stop at 1.058, 1.08, and lastly 1.10. Price action as well as other indicators will tell me what to do when market price reaches those points.
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  • #55,880
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:59pm Nov 6, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting bogus
Yep, I learnt the hard way. Trying to pick which level price will turn off is a skill/art which very few people can do. I can't.
Well I try to use math but you can get at a top bottom but you never know if it is a top bottom all you have is %'s by using a fairly tight stop looking at h4 or daily you can sometimes get it... and it pays for 100 losses in the end... thats the only way to succeed long term you have to hit a few home runs and have little losses... the systems that risk alot to earn little simply don't work.
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