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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #2,521
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:21am Nov 6, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Skynet
i concur. my only distinction is that i want price to dip much lower, before the pullback...otherwise, it will just be a bounce....

i like CAD fundie vs EUR fundie.

UPDATE...ON EUR/CAD short....price is moving nicely....i am up by +41pips on the short side... TP = 1.25855. that is roughly r/r of 1:4. Trade already moved to B/E.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-06_07-14_OANDA.jpg Size: 73 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,522
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:33am Nov 6, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Skynet
UPDATE...ON EUR/CAD short....price is moving nicely....i am up by +41pips on the short side... TP = 1.25855. that is roughly r/r of 1:4. Trade already moved to B/E.
Nice work Skynet, I was keeping an eye on EURNZD but didnt take the break of the wedge on the daily and there has been no pause or pullback as yet.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #2,523
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:35am Nov 6, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Tiwa
Here is the one am looking at for now, looking to go long if the support hold. Good luck.
Attachment
Dear Tiwa.

İt is a good chart to trade. i want to add some comment.

i think buy enter not doing today because daily avarage ATR is 59 but today ATR is 80(because of rate explanation). it has greater risk factor. i will give my attention tomorrow(maybe in later days). and wait for pushing 1.0450 round number level. i think 1.0545 is a good target to hit. thanks for sharing.
  • #2,524
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:39am Nov 6, 2012 6:39am
Quoting Quezoy
Still short EU. Not much movement but still slow crawl southward.

U/J played out nice, my pending order above 0.80 got triggered and BRN held. Confluence with 50 fib also.

NICE ONE....short JPY is an easy fundamental play, if you can get the right technical setup. i am not surprised that your UJ is doing fine. Also, this one is in an UPTREND...the trend is up...

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11286/20...-s2rs-75kb.jpg

Quoting DarkWolF
I put a pending order in on NZDJPY Daily which got triggered and so far is in drawdown for me.

Potentially a little bit of an aggressive entry rather than waiting to see if price could break the lower trend line and confirm the pattern.
yes, i think you should have waited for the break, retest of the TL, and continuation...more like your GBP/AUD short.
Quoting DarkWolF
Here is the short that I took today on this pair. I think with the RBA keeping interest rates on hold helped me a little with this one, if they had dropped rates it would have most definately gone the other way I would imagine.

is there a reason you didnt enter at around 1.5580?
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,525
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:47am Nov 6, 2012 6:47am
Quoting Skynet
UPDATE...ON EUR/CAD short....price is moving nicely....i am up by +41pips on the short side... TP = 1.25855. that is roughly r/r of 1:4. Trade already moved to B/E.

Dear Skynet.

There is 1.2728 weekly support level i am waiting to beat that level. it will happen nowly. i guess
thanks for sharing.
  • #2,526
  • Nov 6, 2012 6:48am Nov 6, 2012 6:48am
Quoting Skynet
NICE ONE....short JPY is an easy fundamental play, if you can get the right technical setup. i am not surprised that your UJ is doing fine. Also, this one is in an UPTREND...the trend is up...





yes, i think you should have waited for the break, retest of the TL, and continuation...more like your GBP/AUD short.





is there a reason you didnt enter at around 1.5580?
NZDJPY: Yes indeed I most likely should have.

GBPAUD: I simply did not see it at the time, during most of October I was quite busy and wasnt getting much time to really look at and analyze the charts so missed a few, but these things happen.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #2,527
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:03am Nov 6, 2012 7:03am
Core Elements of Technical Analysis
I think all technical analysis is TL and S/R or one of the two. Let me try and break down my thought process, shall we? One thing that i have noticed about trading S/R and TL confluence on larger time frame is that, whenever or where ever they occur, they hardly occur in isolation. They also tends to be part of another pattern, i.e., the TL could be part of a pennant formation or a channel or a head and shoulder or a double top/bottom, ascending/descending triangle, or flag formation, or Gartley formation, etc. For the S/R Levels or demand and supply zones, it is not uncommon for some of them to concides with flat top/bottom triangles or rectangle formations. All these different formations probably serves to bring in other players looking at different things to put their money at that spot of confluence.

Also, it is not at all unusual to see FIB levels zones of 38 or 50 or 61 in close proximity to the confluence spot. Which probably brings in the fib players.

Since focus is on H4 and above, most likely the confluence spot will fall very close to a round number psychological area, which has its attraction for some people.

Even candlesticks comes into play here, because when you zoom into candlesticks, there are times when a candlestick is just a classic chart pattern when viewed from a lower time frame. Try this, go to monthly time frame and choose any random candlestick. Mark its boundaries. Then go to lower and lower time frame to view those boundaries. I can almost guarantee it, that the weekly candlestick will morph into one of many classic chart patterns within those boundaries when viewed from lower time frames. In essence, the candlestick trader could be trading S/R and TL confluence while trading his candlesticks.

Basically, what i am saying is that the reason why S/R and TL confluence on higher time frames shows such remarkable success rate could be because of the converging different styles of traders focusing on the confluence spot for whatever personal reasons.

Take for example, this EUR/HKD trade, immediately, i see at least 7 things converging on the confluence zone.

1. A gartley C-D bullish leg completing itself into the confluence zone.
2. I can see a pennant doing the same too....
3. Same for S/R level or demand zone.
4. Same for a channel
5. Same for 50% fib level.
6. Same for round number.
7. Flat top triangle.

All concentrated at confluence zone. These are just for the ones i can see for now. Maybe this is why confluence on higher time frames(where it gets more noticed by different traders with different style)works so well. Due to many different style of traders putting their money down around that spot for whatever different reasons. I am just hypothesizing here.

Bottomline here is this: the way i see it is that i dont even need to see all these other patterns, when all i need is a confluence of S/R and T/L. That is it. That take care of everything. Which goes to a hypothesis: most technical chart patterns and candlesticks are simply S/R and TL or one of the two of them, when you really, really think about it.


Quoting Skynet
ON S/R

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

I trade S/R two ways:

#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market turning...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,528
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:14am Nov 6, 2012 7:14am
Quoting P.Action

Dear Skynet.

There is 1.2728 weekly support level i am waiting to beat that level. it will happen nowly. i guess
thanks for sharing.
the weekly support that i see are at 1.2735....and 1.2702...

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11286/20...-els5-55kb.jpg


Quoting DarkWolF
NZDJPY: Yes indeed I most likely should have.

GBPAUD: I simply did not see it at the time, during most of October I was quite busy and wasnt getting much time to really look at and analyze the charts so missed a few, but these things happen.

COOL.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,529
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:31am Nov 6, 2012 7:31am
how cute of RBA to keep rates unchanged. That makes AUD bullishererer than ever.
  • #2,530
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:34am Nov 6, 2012 7:34am
dare to speculate that in a month or so ill be buying #EURUSD at the price of @1.2600 maybe even @1.2500
  • #2,531
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:37am Nov 6, 2012 7:37am
Quoting kwonkicker
dare to speculate that in a month or so ill be buying #EURUSD at the price of @1.2600 maybe even @1.2500

kindly state your fundamental /technical reasons for your statement...dont tell me you wrote that just because you "feel" like it.

respectfully,

--skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #2,532
  • Nov 6, 2012 7:39am Nov 6, 2012 7:39am
Quoting Skynet
the weekly support that i see are at 1.2735....and 1.2702...

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11286/20...-els5-55kb.jpg





COOL.
That is what i see

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Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad1.jpg Size: 229 KB



and this is downtrend canal in longly time zone at weekly time frame which support short entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #2,533
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:30am Nov 6, 2012 9:30am
Quoting Skynet
kindly state your fundamental /technical reasons for your statement...dont tell me you wrote that just because you "feel" like it.

respectfully,

--skynet
its a trick. we are stuck between those to big levels and its inevitable that price should touch one of them lol) pure fibonacci complex uber super analysis
  • #2,534
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:34am Nov 6, 2012 9:34am
but joke aside, if obama loses this election 1.2600 will follow. There is nothing that suggests otherwise anyway. And im short eurusd @1.281 stop @1.2840 target god knows what.
  • #2,535
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:38am Nov 6, 2012 9:38am
if im wrong and get stopped out ill buy above 1.284. short term dip could come around and below 1.2740 which is my first technical target on the trade i mentioned.
  • #2,536
  • Nov 6, 2012 12:48pm Nov 6, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting DarkWolF
Took this on the hourly chart. Still playing out, have SL and TP levels ready to go.
Stopped on this one, had a quite a small risk but a loss is a loss.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #2,537
  • Nov 6, 2012 12:50pm Nov 6, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting kwonkicker
how cute of RBA to keep rates unchanged. That makes AUD bullishererer than ever.
Good for the charts, but us Aussies with home loans would have much preferred to have seen another rate cut
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #2,538
  • Nov 6, 2012 12:54pm Nov 6, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting Skynet
Core Elements of Technical Analysis
I think all technical analysis is TL and S/R or one of the two. Let me try and break down my thought process, shall we? One thing that i have noticed about trading S/R and TL confluence on larger time frame is that, whenever or where ever they occur, they hardly occur in isolation. They also tends to be part of another pattern, i.e., the TL could be part of a pennant formation or a channel or a head and shoulder or a double top/bottom, ascending/descending triangle, or flag formation, or Gartley formation, etc....
Well said skynet. Totally agree with that.

Trendlines, horizontal support and resistantce, watch for them.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #2,539
  • Edited 6:36pm Nov 6, 2012 4:57pm | Edited 6:36pm
hey guys good to see the market started moving a bit with all that economic news and i guess the election coming up and what not.

I have been playing really selectively and have been learning its best to take to a trade which has the utmost best setup instead of a okay trade that ends up a loser.

So there havent been many but i am also long with you guys on usd/jpy whoever has taken that trade. Furthermore shorted gold. Also close eye on gbp/chf on the verge of breakout.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,540
  • Nov 7, 2012 3:07am Nov 7, 2012 3:07am
Quoting jibjib210
hey guys good to see the market started moving a bit with all that economic news and i guess the election coming up and what not.

I have been playing really selectively and have been learning its best to take to a trade which has the utmost best setup instead of a okay trade that ends up a loser.

So there havent been many but i am also long with you guys on usd/jpy whoever has taken that trade. Furthermore shorted gold. Also close eye on gbp/chf on the verge of breakout.
Hi Jibjib,

Yes indeed patience can be a virtue when it comes to trading.

I am glad it is one that you are now seeing the benefit of.

I have been keeping on eye on that GBPCHF also for quite some time now looking for price to break out of the daily channel. Looking for a continuation pattern to take place.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
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