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  • #12,241
  • Nov 5, 2012 7:52pm Nov 5, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A pattern won't change its format if it has started. It has to complete the form of the pattern before switching to another pattern.
unless the projected pattern was wrong^^
  • #12,242
  • Nov 5, 2012 7:58pm Nov 5, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A pattern has a beginning and an ending. It won't change its PRESET format until the ending is reached. In other words, when the master shows up, the end of a pattern is near.
Take current PA for example, have we seen the Master yet? If not, the pattern has not completed. Before the Master comers, a manifestation has to be displayed in a sub-pattern format.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,243
  • Edited 8:12pm Nov 5, 2012 8:00pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting maximmm
unless the projected pattern was wrong^^
The preset pattern cannot be wrong but the one who projected it could be mistaken.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,244
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:02pm Nov 5, 2012 8:02pm
Plants grow in certain patterns, depending on the plant itself. However, just because they most often grow in one certain pattern depending on the plant itself, the pattern may be offset by a slight amount. This will result in a near similar pattern, only thing that's different is the numbers.

1,1,2,3,5,8,13

or

1,1,3,4,7,11

The same, but different.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #12,245
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:04pm Nov 5, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The preset pattern cannot be wrong but the one who projected could be mistaken.
I know.
  • #12,246
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:38pm Nov 5, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting 5percent
as recommended before, like trading news like fomc, nfp etc, gold is the first to jump or fall, use buy sell stops away from live rates like 5-10points away at least , so its unlikely u go against the trend, and always trade with stop loss.

unwilling to lose profits accumulation, will end up endangering capital investment,i always use profits accumulation method for example

month 1- 120%
month 2- 145%

on month 3 of trading, u might have a hard stop of 135%, so u can protect the hard work u work for in month 1 and month 2. Also it keeps...
Thank you, very nice article
  • #12,247
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:34pm Nov 5, 2012 9:34pm
I call this a double fakeout.

Though really - this is true only if the may analogy works - which I have doubts about.
If it stands, this rally will be completely retraced tomorrow.
  • #12,248
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:39pm Nov 5, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting maximmm
I call this a double fakeout.

Though really - this is true only if the may analogy works - which I have doubts about.
If it stands, this rally will be completely retraced tomorrow.
one of the best way to trading is to be neither bull or bear. trading news methodology like that can always use buy sell stop strategy , so one won't go against trend, there's no point in arguing what the market did, as long profits is in the account. Price actions works the fastest, buy above wick, sell below pin, by the time one refresh the news page, or check on twitter or bloomberg, the price already move ?

anyway, i doubt and only thinks that a minority would use buy stop on daily earlier high on 1.0385 would had already been in profits or trailing, even if its a fake out, i would short it when resistance is found, but not when the candles are bullish.

like my earlier recommendation of trading news like fomc, nfp etc, same for today, is always to use buy sell stop.

A buy stop would already bagged 30 pips in a matter of 1-5 minutes. why fight the trend? now i am out until 1 hour before frankfurts open to see if resistance is found, before shorting a bull.
  • #12,249
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:40pm Nov 5, 2012 9:40pm
Had a buy stop order at 1.0375 with TP at 1.0405.

Closed in a second.
Intraday only.
  • #12,250
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:45pm Nov 5, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting 5percent
one of the best way to trading is to be neither bull or bear. trading news methodology like that can always use buy sell stop strategy , so one won't go against trend, there's no point in arguing what the market did, as long profits is in the account. Price actions works the fastest, buy above wick, sell below pin, by the time one refresh the news page, or check on twitter or bloomberg, the price already move ?

anyway, i doubt and only thinks that a minority would use buy stop on daily earlier high on 1.0385 would had already been in profits...
in the grand scheme of things, there is no trend, not until 1.06 is broken, if that gets broken, then we'll move on to a real trend.

Again, I don't really have a lot of faith in short term charts, hence the big numbers.
  • #12,251
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:50pm Nov 5, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting maximmm
in the grand scheme of things, there is no trend, not until 1.06 is broken, then we'll move on to trend.
my query is that, how do u trade actually? buy low sell high? i won't question the market, it do what it wants to do, i try to spot opportunity and follow the current existing " momentum " since you said there's no trend. I care about banking in profits and get into a winner trade or to always cut a loser short, so i don't get emotional or rational questioning the market movement.

The market do what it wants, if a trader is caught nursing a under-water trade badly, he's very biased to trading and wants to make every trade a winner, which is almost impossible. Yes like what db said, some people are wrong early, but win later, some are correct or lucky early but wrong later.

but i cared about live rates, live movements, and pips banked, not floating dd or equity, unless its positive with trailing stops/breakeven.

follow the move up and be in green, found resistance, drop it off, follow the move down be in green, found support, drop it off. is all that matters.
  • #12,252
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:50pm Nov 5, 2012 9:50pm
when you talk about patterns - nothing has been broken.

1.0450 or so should serve as the top - if the head and shoulders formation is correct. Again, the real sign of a bull trend would be a breach of 1.06
  • #12,253
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:51pm Nov 5, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting 5percent
my query is that, how do u trade actually? buy low sell high? i won't question the market, it do what it wants to do, i try to spot opportunity and follow the current existing " momentum " since you said there's no trend. I care about banking in profits and get into a winner trade or to always cut a loser short, so i don't get emotional or rational questioning the market movement.

The market do what it wants, if a trader is caught nursing a under-water trade badly, he's very biased to trading and wants to make every trade a winner, which is...
My stop lies above 1.06. If that gets broken, I'll go long^^
  • #12,254
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:54pm Nov 5, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting 5percent
4 hours
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...m-1024x419.png
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...k-1024x415.png
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...n-1024x411.png
  • #12,255
  • Edited 10:06pm Nov 5, 2012 9:55pm | Edited 10:06pm
I will say this though - my immediate target lies at 1.013 - I'll close shorts then and place more short orders below.
  • #12,256
  • Nov 5, 2012 9:58pm Nov 5, 2012 9:58pm
I see in my chart, 1.0448 minimum.
Intraday only.
  • #12,257
  • Nov 5, 2012 10:09pm Nov 5, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting 5percent
my query is that, how do u trade actually? buy low sell high? i won't question the market, it do what it wants to do, i try to spot opportunity and follow the current existing " momentum " since you said there's no trend. I care about banking in profits and get into a winner trade or to always cut a loser short, so i don't get emotional or rational questioning the market movement.

The market do what it wants, if a trader is caught nursing a under-water trade badly, he's very biased to trading and wants to make every trade a winner, which is...
I think this is the short term trader perspective and it makes sense.

There is also such a thing as building longer term constructive short positions. That sort of trading method often leads one to be in the red for a while prior to being in the green.
  • #12,258
  • Nov 5, 2012 10:11pm Nov 5, 2012 10:11pm
this is what might happen later.

1.0382 area our earlier high should already be resistance turns support -> there should be more pending limits on placed or when price returned to 1.0382 should be most shorts would be take out/square resulting in 1 less bear take

, earlier 2 other points of high on 1.0405 and 1.0419, should also be minor support now but can be broken easily due to any fundamental change/ fake out retracement.

However, the zone we are trading should be expanded to between 1.0383-1.0434 our current high, and understanding a bull, he can keep on pushing until a fat bear seats on him, aka bearish engulfing?

if next few hours, price can return below 1.0405 will shows the offers pressure still remains, but the overall out look from rba to maintain rate shows continue shine in aud, which makes it well bid.

the daily candle has already overlapped the previous bearish engulfing, as things get fundamental, trade with proper risk management.
  • #12,259
  • Nov 5, 2012 10:14pm Nov 5, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting maximmm
I think this is the short term trader perspective and it makes sense.

There is also such a thing as building longer term constructive short positions. That sort of trading method often leads one to be in the red for a while prior to being in the green.
not really, i can have many accounts, some are long term, some short term, so i don't miss out all opportunity or hedge myself. what i am driving at is, the mentality ur are giving me is an investor's mindset instead of a trader, of purchasing a shares from a company, and hoping the value increase for your benefits.

but trend is " the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker ", one person bought a share, but the value didn't increase and keep depreciating, he didn't have stop loss, or do not want to divorce the trade, eventually the share gets to no value as the trader makes too much losses even up to 50% of initial value aka dd,but trader still nurse it, So when trades comes back to 90%? is the trader going to call if off to buy a new share? or hold it back to 100% or 150%? by holding the trader already lose too much time holding. what about commissions and swaps?

alot of retail trader claimed this - they short from 1.0300 for example and target 1.015, but by the time the market move from 1.0430 to 1.0290 in his favor, he already get out with + 10 pips, after waiting up to 3-4 weeks in under-water while price was trading on different range.

so they had missed all the up down up down up down while price was in 1.0300-1.0400, where he could had bagged avg 30-100 pips daily.
  • #12,260
  • Nov 5, 2012 10:20pm Nov 5, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting 5percent
not really, i can have many accounts, some are long term, some short term, so i don't miss out all opportunity or hedge myself. what i am driving at is, the mentality ur are giving me is an investor's mindset instead of a trader, of purchasing a shares from a company, and hoping the value increase for your benefits.

but trend is " the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker ", one person bought a share, but the value didn't increase and keep depreciating, he didn't have stop loss, or do not want to divorce the trade, eventually the share gets...
To be sure, I do have stops. I'm not riding this out to 1.10^^

You are right about swaps - AUD is a hard sell if only because of swaps. That, however, is something you always have to take into consideration when you are not day trading. It will always be an issue you'll have to contend with and accept thereafter.
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