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  • #55,701
  • Nov 4, 2012 4:39pm Nov 4, 2012 4:39pm
I'm wondering if i should go long or short. in one hand you have the likely rate cut on tuesday but in the other hand we have data about trade balance (important macro details) in a couple of hours.
  • #55,702
  • Nov 4, 2012 4:47pm Nov 4, 2012 4:47pm
Look to retail that will show what if anything the last cut has done to alleviate the pressures.

If both Trade and Retail come in worse if would be assumed that all the Manufacturing Data out of China would not stop another cut as domestic issues are starting to show more sway.
  • #55,703
  • Nov 4, 2012 5:39pm Nov 4, 2012 5:39pm
MI CPI m/m comes in at 0.1% despite RBA previous cut.
Rate cut will either be this month or next -its a given-
Market has factored this in.

Now lets take a look at the cross rates eur/aud and gbp/aud

I see another test of the downside on both - Friday saw a low then a bounce but markets didnt have conviction.

Greece is only a question before it goes over like a granny on marbles and then watch the dominoes fall.

Key levels 1.2200 and 1.5300 for the major breaks.
  • #55,704
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:41pm Nov 4, 2012 6:41pm
My 2 cents worth of chart.
05.11.2012 - Holding short till RBA Cash Rate / Statement.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352076050
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 051112 0840hrs 4hrs.jpg Size: 209 KB
  • #55,705
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:43pm Nov 4, 2012 6:43pm
the result come better than expected

will we really see a rate cut tomorrow?
  • #55,706
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:54pm Nov 4, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting grandia
the result come better than expected

will we really see a rate cut tomorrow?

Better than forecast , but only slightly .
November IB's unchanged on the news at 96.86 - pricing in a 55% chance of a cut tomorrow .
Been a while since the call was this close ...
  • #55,707
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:53pm Nov 4, 2012 7:53pm
may be markets confused now rate cut or not
  • #55,708
  • Nov 4, 2012 7:55pm Nov 4, 2012 7:55pm
Quoting Nachiket
may be markets confused now rate cut or not
I still think the fall of friday was real and was not a trap and markets will retest 1.0320 today
  • #55,709
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:02pm Nov 4, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
Better than forecast , but only slightly .
November IB's unchanged on the news at 96.86 - pricing in a 55% chance of a cut tomorrow .
Been a while since the call was this close ...
how are you determining this %
  • #55,710
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:03pm Nov 4, 2012 8:03pm
I think it's too soon to cut rate with all the jittery that gonna happen this week
  • #55,711
  • Nov 4, 2012 8:06pm Nov 4, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting grandia
I think it's too soon to cut rate with all the jittery that gonna happen this week
If you are talking about the us elections. it is pricing in a obama win. retail sales data was not impressive at all and pricing power of the consumer is down due to high aussie.
  • #55,712
  • Nov 4, 2012 9:26pm Nov 4, 2012 9:26pm
Quoting Nachiket
If you are talking about the us elections. it is pricing in a obama win. retail sales data was not impressive at all and pricing power of the consumer is down due to high aussie.
Australia is a commodity currency.. major exports in coal, iron ores, tin ores, wool, beef, barley, and raw sugar. Which is dropping quickly.. the Aussy is pacing the drop in ore, sugar, beef, wool which is all down like 25% on average.. this starts creating surplus causing minor deflation and causing the currency rates to need to be cut..

since they have stabilized a bit recently I believe the rates will stay the same and the aussies have a history of testing the rate drop zone before continuing to cut unless they feel they are moving into a crisis...

Also seeing a new surge in metal usage we may see and increase in the commodity based currencies
  • #55,713
  • Nov 4, 2012 9:46pm Nov 4, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting domino
Australia is a commodity currency.. major exports in coal, iron ores, tin ores, wool, beef, barley, and raw sugar. Which is dropping quickly.. the Aussy is pacing the drop in ore, sugar, beef, wool which is all down like 25% on average.. this starts creating surplus causing minor deflation and causing the currency rates to need to be cut..

since they have stabilized a bit recently I believe the rates will stay the same and the aussies have a history of testing the rate drop zone before continuing to cut unless they feel they are moving into a...
RBA has cut the rate by 150 bps in the past 2 years. 1.5%. thats not much. they still have room to cut atleast once and then we stay stable for another 6 months. if they don't do it this month next month they definitely will
  • #55,714
  • Nov 4, 2012 9:50pm Nov 4, 2012 9:50pm
The RBA does not surprise much in Dec. the last time they surprised the markets was in dec 2008. much of the action has come in Nov. It think it has got something to do with the fact that its a month of christmas and Jan they don't come.
  • #55,715
  • Nov 4, 2012 10:32pm Nov 4, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting domino
how are you determining this %

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
  • #55,716
  • Nov 5, 2012 12:16am Nov 5, 2012 12:16am
Quoting macroman
i am sticking with taking risk on signals. It served me well last month and will not change horses now. until shanghai is above 2k.

only minor loser was selling usjy, wich was risk-off trade. So market has spoken.

I added futures broker to my broker list.
Hey Macroman, what futures broker do you use to trade the shangai comp? I've been wanting to long shanghai comp for a while but can't find any aussie broker that offer the index.
  • #55,717
  • Nov 5, 2012 1:47am Nov 5, 2012 1:47am
Quoting Iro
Hey Macroman, what futures broker do you use to trade the shangai comp? I've been wanting to long shanghai comp for a while but can't find any aussie broker that offer the index.
do not trade shanghai futures. use only as indicator. aud, resource stocks, SGD are possibilities.
  • #55,718
  • Nov 5, 2012 1:54am Nov 5, 2012 1:54am
It looks like the AUDUSD pair is about to get hammered. It looks like it could bottom on the descending trendline at about 1.0114 over the next ten trading days or so.
  • #55,719
  • Nov 5, 2012 2:31am Nov 5, 2012 2:31am
Expecting AUDUSD to retest parity in the coming weeks good luck folks
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,720
  • Nov 5, 2012 2:32am Nov 5, 2012 2:32am
bhp and rio up sharply today. I think this will keep aud bid.
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