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  • #7,081
  • Oct 28, 2012 4:03am Oct 28, 2012 4:03am
Quoting doyathink
yup, not exactly the same at all times,
but I hope I still contribute to the little push our band o' traders may be making at ny and london open...
how's it going for you and this system, hazel?
________

To imagine that a few forum players are going to affect the slightest move in a 4 trillion dollar per day market is delusional to say the least.

Whilst I applaud the notion of little or no risk for maximum reward, I believe this system, as outlined in post 1 is a failure. Simple math on a spreadsheet tells me so.

Tony has yet to respond to the numbers.
  • #7,082
  • Oct 28, 2012 4:33am Oct 28, 2012 4:33am
so have your spreadsheets found any positive directions, here or elsewhere, you might care to share with the crew?

so the cbbp ea, as I outlined the way I use it, was up about 1.7% of the (small live) account this week...six opens a day...
getting tick backtesting up and running soon
(easier said than done! but I have help...)
so will probably re-tweak all settings soon...
  • #7,083
  • Oct 28, 2012 10:01am Oct 28, 2012 10:01am
Don't forget that clocks go forward in the UK today, so you'll need to adjust your alarm for the London Open tomorrow morning.
  • #7,084
  • Oct 29, 2012 12:54am Oct 29, 2012 12:54am
correcto?
  • #7,085
  • Oct 29, 2012 5:30am Oct 29, 2012 5:30am
A sure fire way of telling is to google "time in london"
  • #7,086
  • Oct 29, 2012 6:30am Oct 29, 2012 6:30am
this will help

http://www.forex4noobs.com/forex-tools/forex-clock/
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #7,087
  • Oct 30, 2012 3:24am Oct 30, 2012 3:24am
Anyone in a free trade? damm second time in a row I missed it due to some technical problems. But I don`t give up yet.
  • #7,088
  • Oct 30, 2012 4:11am Oct 30, 2012 4:11am
Quoting Saintsurfer
Anyone in a free trade? damm second time in a row I missed it due to some technical problems. But I don`t give up yet.
Don't worry it closed for break even.
  • #7,089
  • Edited 11:50am Oct 30, 2012 8:10am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting TheMaxx
Don't worry it closed for break even.
The problem with my trade was that it was wrong lot size(minimal), but the self trade not closed out at BE and stil runing at 40 pips now.

edit: it seems my trade was from Frankfurt open
  • #7,090
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:50am Oct 30, 2012 11:50am
Anyone else in the long from the New York open? Or did people not trade due to the US markets being closed.
  • #7,091
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:24am Oct 31, 2012 5:24am
Quoting TheMaxx
Anyone else in the long from the New York open? Or did people not trade due to the US markets being closed.
I guess the ea doesn't trade when it's already in...
didn't notice that before...
I was long from previous london open...
  • #7,092
  • Edited 10:40pm Nov 1, 2012 8:48am | Edited 10:40pm
Quoting hazel1919
Tony,...your system is doomed to fail...

Lets assume we start with a balance of $10 000. We risk 0.7% over two pips per trade... we take two trades a day... 260 days a year. Half our trades close at break-even and the other half close at our stop loss of -2 pips (this is realistic). On the upside we win one 400 pip ride a year...

After 260 days we will have refunded a total of $18200 to keep our initial balance at $10 000

Now, after a long wait we hit our home run of 400 pips. That would yield us $7000.

$7000...
"...Half our trades close at break-even and the other half close at our stop loss of -2 pips (this is realistic)...."

Here is my calculation for a 50% breakeven and one 400 pip win per year:

Trading limit due to 50:1 margin in U.S. = $10K X 50 = $500K
Trading limit out of U.S. = $10K X 100 = 1 mio or more

In the U.S.:
.007 risked X $10,000 = $70 or $35/pip (for 2 pips) = 35 $10,000 lots at $1/pip, or 3 $100K lots + 5 $10K lots

At $4/100K lot X 3 = -$12 + (5 X $0.40/$10k = $2) = $14 in commissions plus the spread of 3 pips ($30, 2 pips + 1 pip slippage) = -$44/loss (disregarding other expenses mentioned above! ;^)

A single win of 400 pips X $35/pip = $14,000

Break even = $14,000 drawdown 260 days X 2 trades daily = 520 trades - 1 win = 519 trades

519 trades X -$44 cost = -$22,836 gross loss

Net loss would be $14K win -$22,836 loss = $8,836 loss IF YOU DID NOT BREAK EVEN ON ANY OF THE TRADES (Highly unlikely)

If you break even on 1/2 of the trades, i.e. 260 trades, you would only have a 260 X -$44 cost = -$11,440 gross loss

Net profit would be $14K - $11,440K = $2,560 profit

If you managed to breakeven on 60% of the trades and made a 2 pip profit on 1/2 of those:

40% trades are losses, so .40 X 520 trades = 208 loss trades 208 trades X -$44 = -$9,152 drawdown

2 pips profit X (.6 X 520/2) = 312 pips 312 pips X $35 = $10,920 profit

Gross profit would then be $14K + $10,920 = $24,920

Net profit would be $24,920 - $9,152 = $15,768(minus fees and expenses)

Of course if you only traded once a day, 260 trades a year, it would be 130 trades X -$44 cost = -$5,720

If you break even on 1/2 of the trades, gross loss would be $2,860

Net profit would be $14K - $5,720 = $8,280 profit (not bad for one win a year!)

Maybe trading less than 2 times daily would be better.

Looks like getting to break even asap a high percentage of the time and keeping costs low is what makes this system (and lots of others) profitable.

I've been up all night, so feel free to correct my math if you see a miscalculation.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #7,093
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:06am Nov 1, 2012 10:06am
Stay tuned as tomorrow I will show you how to trade the NFP. I will trade it with the biggest amount of cash I have ever put into a trade.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,094
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:15am Nov 1, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Tony112
Stay tuned as tomorrow I will show you how to trade the NFP. I will trade it with the biggest amount of cash I have ever put into a trade.
Thanks Tony looking forward to it.
  • #7,095
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:34am Nov 1, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Tony112
Stay tuned as tomorrow I will show you how to trade the NFP. I will trade it with the biggest amount of cash I have ever put into a trade.
Tony, are you still trading your strategy as per post #1?
  • #7,096
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:43pm Nov 1, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
"...Half our trades close at break-even and the other half close at our stop loss of -2 pips (this is realistic)...."

Here is my calculation for a 50% breakeven and one 400 pip win per year:

Trading limit due to 50:1 margin in U.S. = $10K X 50 = $500K
Trading limit out of U.S. = $10K X 100 = 1 mio or more

In the U.S.:
.007 risked X $10,000 = $70 or $35/pip (for 2 pips) = 35 $10,000 lots at $1/pip, or 3 $100K lots + 5 $10K lots

At $4/100K lot X 3 = -$12 + (5 X $0.40/$10k = $2) = $14 in commissions...
I got lost part way through with the arithmetic. Bottom line: if you start with a 3 pip spread + $4/lot commission the system isn't feasible. True, and Tony would agree. This is the reason he insists on using a 1 pip all in cost broker.

Ok check that, his first post document says 0.9 pips is the max. But looking at the recent spreads at Oanda it appears that 0.9 isn't so plentiful - more like 1.0 at 8:00 AM and 1.1 at 3:00 on most days for EURUSD (though some are higher).
  • #7,097
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:55am Nov 2, 2012 11:55am
Quoting Tony112
Stay tuned as tomorrow I will show you how to trade the NFP. I will trade it with the biggest amount of cash I have ever put into a trade.
Patiently waiting
  • #7,098
  • Nov 3, 2012 11:56pm Nov 3, 2012 11:56pm
guys just a short message to let you know im having some problems right now, will be back next week dont worry about me
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,099
  • Nov 4, 2012 3:16am Nov 4, 2012 3:16am
No worries hope everything works out
  • #7,100
  • Nov 4, 2012 5:51pm Nov 4, 2012 5:51pm
thanks a lot
Invest in alarm clocks
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