AUD/USD

For Keiichi2,
Wait for a good set up near 300 for any long.

hi plesac, do you mind sharing your ichimoku indicator you used in this post... Just love the colour of its clouds which does not come default. Thanks.

here is the process I start from the Hi of Last year to The low of last year
YTD Hi/Lo
6/1 bottom this year to the 1.06238 Hi
and the recent 1.06238 to the wave bottom at 1.0149
then you add them up and you have a wall on the upside and the wall on the downside is 1.023 which is the first layer, just like 1.04 was the first wall layer on the upside. The last on the upside before a true breakout to retest 1.06 is 1.0435


I look at these because if you notice certain walls have a wide open space before the next major wall comes into play, usually when this happens the wild swings occur in between them and they usually reach the next wall of confluence. its the price action inbetween the wall layers that is chop and I never look to for trading unless I start to pick spots to short in the wall area like 1.04-1.0410 last time. (see white boxes)

within these layers between the walls you could draw ABC retraces for better entry also.

Hi JPL,
if I apply quicly your tech to the cadjpy, I get this. And if I want to apply this strat, I have to wait that the price goes above 81.80 for long it. Am I right ?

Same pair, I traced differently the fibo level.
I said you that I was smart but not quick
I see wall, every where, worse than a jail

And the last one. It's worst.

On longing Cad/JPY I will stay away from fundis as much as possible and 100pips has been the go to guy for me at least on JPY fundamentals. I do remember a few weeks back the Canadian Central Bank signaled it was going to delay raising rates depressing hopes of longs to be in the first Major economy to raise rates post 08 so that still should factor in the minds at least it does for me. Maybe ppl got ahead of themselves and now are unwinding but I don’t trade CAD full time so not sure on that mentality

As for technical because CAD/JPY Its not like AUD/USD with Wild spikes and fills to make a nice clean setup for fibs but you can look to two big fibs that are in play here YTD Hi/Lo and 20yr chart starts really at the beginning of 2003 and see the Hi/Lo from the 2008 crash to the bottom. Notice on the 20Yr we bottomed out at the 886% in 2012 and have closed as of today on Monthly chart above the 78.6. Now a follow through next week will pretty much lock in a new trend upwards or we come back down to a range area just like dollar was in for several weeks.
If we do YTD comparison your best entry is a daily close above that wall 78.6% sitting at 80.91 notice we have not closed above it yet.

Now lets dig a little closer and go to the futures….




Jpy futures. I show a daily but if you pull up a weekly chart this was the first week we closed below the 50% retrace from YTD hi/lo…Now assuming the continued stimulus and recession wispers out of Japan continue you will see yen continue to decline down to at least to the next fib which is the 618%

Cad Futures. Crossed briefly above 618 ytd hi low but is now back in its range between 50%-618%

The best setup you can possibly have for going long CAD/JPY for a bigger move long term like a few weeks or more is if:
Cad futures: breaks above and CLOSES above the 618.
JPY futures: continues down and starts tapping the 618 below
CAD/JPY 20yr chart: so far since theend of this week we are trading above the 78.6% and if this month closes above you have a long setup for a nice move higher.
CAD/JPY YTD: we break above the 618% and close on the daily ABOVE for a continued move higher.

Those who are not long termers like me if you just want a simple setup refer to CAD/JPY YTD fibs as they can be great for a range trade selling at 80.91 with a tight stp loss for a move back to the lower channel

Or
Waiting for a close above the 618 on a daily chart then longing it setting the stop loss below the 618.

WOW ES really tanked into the close... next week should be a nice range

looks like a rounding bottom I was waiting for 1405 a few days later but hey if it wants to take this out early no problem could get a cup and handle patter but its still early

Ah no, if you give me directly the answer, I will never learn and improve my technique. I wanted to know if I use correctly the fibo.
That being said, when you trace the fibo, they are more clean and makes sense than when I plot them on the chart.

Thanks a lot.

PS The real reason of my cadjpy trading these last weeks was a learning process more than making profit. It was very instructive because I had to pilot 3 pairs. I was used to trade AJ, but CJ is a bit more difficult. Why ? Because with AJ you have positive correlation between the 3 pairs. And that's not the case with CJ. You have a negative correlation beween uscad and cadjpy and a positive correlation between UJ and CJ. There is more, yen and cad don't react the same way to all the us data release. In brief, CJ is a bit more difficult to trade than for exemple eur or gud, but it's very instructive.

I recommand everyone to trade this pair, from time to time, to improve the trading technique.

Have a nice week end all.

You dont have to tel me I get confused with JPY FUTURES all the time stopped trading them long tme ago lol.

I have found the more fibs and the shorter TF's you get lost in confusion and then the chart looks lke crap. I still have fellow friends who plot just about every trendline like daily and hourly goring back several years and when the current price reaches it they thing its a great S/R

They key to what I have found work for me is when I trade Pairs or in this case soley USdx, AUD futures, AUD/USD i need multiple variables to line up.

The fundies
Correlation Coefficients either inverse/direct
Fib breakouts from all the markets /6A Dollar AUD/USD or supports
And I also line up Dollar with Certain commodities or the ES when the reading are great for trend trading
and RSI on multipleTF's although they are horrible in a trending market best to use them on Daily, and Weekly for reversals

Nice clean break and close on the Weekly roll

I traded the pair short from 96 aggregate after NFP's as per the trading plan

Covered at 51 because I wasnt sure of the breakout due to market timing. Will certainly look to sell any rallies back towards the 51/60/73

Everyone have a great weekend.

Thanks, I progress a lot, reading your post and others. I miss one real good poster, hope he will come back and post.
The goal for the next year is to start trading commodities. For that, I have to make some more profits with forex

what kind of commodities?

Agricultural.

You should look at intra market trading or spread as it were the margin put up is cheaper than a standard lot on forex just about and your betting on a widening of the spread or tightening look at the performance bonds.


http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agri...nce_bonds.html


If you looking at outright than I see what your saying the trends and bots are not too heavy in AG as they are in INdex futures.

Not to mention its a bit worrying to me the lock limits up/down and if your on the wrong side you have to wait days sometimes o get out because of these provisions.

Corn though was amazing this year being long in that would of been great but I don't trade AG

[quote=jplazard;6158973]You should look at intra market trading or spread as it were the margin put up is cheaper than a standard lot on forex just about and your betting on a widening of the spread or tightening look at the performance bonds.


/quote]

Thanks, will look at it. In what I understand at the comm market is that when you catch the trend your account can grow consequently. Anyway, I need to diversify my speculations (lol) and I want also discover and learn the techniques of a new market. If you have any suggestion they are welcome.
Good night.

im bored....

Account grown 3.64% this week.... and guess what... ending the week with around 400 usd drawdown.... same as the start of this week if not better...
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxty...nt-ma-1/392767

only thing is... Account grew and drawdown remained the same at end of week... interesting..... yep yep my shorts are still in water.... so what?? lol its not a matter of whether shorts are in water or not... its whether if you can turn trades into profitable and learn to cover losing trades by trading other currency pairs....
OH... and Trading Bigger TF factors in stuff like NFP and stuff soo really.... i actually saw the daily closing as a Bearish Engulfing... since the start of Friday's Asia Market.... wooptie dooo, bring up the criticism folks.... i can take it.
oh and guess what if i listened to any one of you guys about why i should cut losses and shit? id be losing big by now... thank myself for listening to my own head and my own analysis And people should do so too....

other than that!, well done JPlazard, great analysis on Gold, AUDUSD and the Dollar Index..... Gold dropped as you said it will and it was in line with my charts too.....
AUDUSD well.... still waiting for the RBA rate decision come next week so we'll see...
Dollar Index... I guess we get to say "Boom Shakalala" Dollar index showed multiple signs it was gona blow up... OH and Equities... WOW did the S&P 500 TANK!!! (Expecting more downwards move ont he S&P, god damn QE3 money pumped into it making it a bubble)

Are you dumb? I told you to cut before 1.02 and you would have been in WAY more profit than you are now because you added others and TP'd.. then I told youa gain at 1.03 and you still would of been better but you decided to stupidly short blind again for a dd to happen.. its funny that your TP's were sometimes so tight yet you would get 100 pips in drawdown on a trade where you only wanted like 30 pips or less lol! Talk about contratrian trading there!

Well it is only a demo so I don't know why to even bother.

Either way by going in blind its going to bite you sooner or later... just watch... even though you probably are thinking I won't do it again like that I know you will because you don't listen you just babble on with your bs.

Okay first of all... I DONT GIVE A SHIT if i added at 1.02 and stuff did i not tell you?? my target is 0.95 so PLEASE shut up... you are seriously coming across as an idiot... i called truce with you via PM just because i dont want to publicly denounce you about gold.... not because i feel bad about being a prick....

Besides Demo or not... Practice makes perfect and thats what im trying to do... If you are so badass, why dont you show us all what account you really trade huh? demo.... so what if im trading demo? ive made it clear im trading demo because im trying to practice with this strategy i developed... so please do me a favour and criticise something other than my trading style dude...

LOL i dont babble on Bullshit budde... AUDUSD on the 1.02 is still a pivotal range... have you not seen previous posts i charted??/ theres a cluster fuck of resistance and support down there to make 1.02 a swing neutral zone.... swing high is around 1.0550
swing low is around 0.95 so PLEASE... i know my trading... Shorting Still at 1.02 presents a good enough Risk reward for me to enter..... do me a favour... tell me... IF i shorted 1.02 which tops out at 1.0550 but with targets down at 0.95? what is my risk reward? im sure is slighly more than 1 Risk to 2 Rewards....

Ps. Jp and i are laughing, OH and most of the folks on the GBPUSD thread too...