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  • #12,101
  • Nov 2, 2012 2:39pm Nov 2, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Thanks DP. DB

I have to go now. See you guys later.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342056484
Good to know you're alive. C ya next week.
I suspect it's going to be a roller coaster.
  • #12,102
  • Nov 2, 2012 2:56pm Nov 2, 2012 2:56pm
I'm not sure if the analogy is applicable anymore. Aud made a much bigger move down than it was supposed to.
The only thing we have going is euro, which made a clear sign that it will go much lower - which will most likely drag commodities along - unless they start acting all independent, like the did the past day and a half.
  • #12,103
  • Nov 2, 2012 3:16pm Nov 2, 2012 3:16pm
It seems to me that NZD is the only one playing along with the may analogy @@
  • #12,104
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:36pm Nov 2, 2012 8:36pm
AUD - what's next?
Forget about the analogy for a while - aud is not following it.

Technical analysis - aud may retest 1.0380/70 - h/s line it broke recently - a line it should should not breach again.
the downside target? 1.03 - which is the neckline of yet another h/s formation. A breach of 1.03 will target 1.015 - which is yet another h/s formation neckline. A breach of 1.015 will finally target 0.98

Essentially AUD price action consists of 3 different (each one bigger) head and shoulders formations.

Everyone, good luck next week.
  • #12,105
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:39pm Nov 2, 2012 9:39pm
Something else to note - euraud seems to be setting up inverse head and shoulders - this suggests that while aud will continue moving down, euro may be stuck in consolidation - despite having breached neckline of h/s formation.
  • #12,106
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:19pm Nov 2, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting maximmm
Something else to note - euraud seems to be setting up inverse head and shoulders - this suggests that while aud will continue moving down, euro may be stuck in consolidation - despite having breached neckline of h/s formation.
So both eur and au are going down further on monday? if so thats great as i'm holding shorts in both
  • #12,107
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:54pm Nov 2, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting Daytrader74
So both eur and au are going down further on monday? if so thats great as i'm holding shorts in both
I suspect only one of them will continue moving down, while the other will consolidate. While I think AUD may be the one that will move lower, it may also be euro. The safer bet would be to short them both, as you have. Though I expect both currencies pull back somewhat on Sunday, prior to resumption of the downward move.
  • #12,108
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:59pm Nov 2, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting Robot Trader
Hi 4xxxxaus,

Yes the divergence is still there and my target is 1685, but this it a long term trade, which could go many pips against me before returning to the level the divergence started (please take this into consideration if you are trading it like I do)

I will be looking to add more position the higher it goes, so for me the higher the better.
Did you hold your trade and take the nice profit?

Divergence gave us another market cycle
Some people say I'm lucky, but the more I practice the luckier I get
  • #12,109
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:59pm Nov 2, 2012 11:59pm
Quoting maximmm
I suspect only one of them will continue moving down, while the other will consolidate. While I think AUD may be the one that will move lower, it may also be euro. The safer bet would be to short them both, as you have. Though I expect both currencies pull back somewhat on Sunday, prior to resumption of the downward move.
I'm heavily short on both...and already in profit
  • #12,110
  • Nov 3, 2012 3:00pm Nov 3, 2012 3:00pm
i don't usually post charts anymore as everyone have their biasness/perspective, but here's are some perspectives of price on the chart that i done for the last 2 months of 2012. I don't trade price on any biasness of bull nor bear. I always trade it with two possibilities along with s,r and price action with fibo. So here are the charts, i won't elaborate or give analysis here, if you are interested about the analysis, pm me for links.

Some people don't understand why i use boxes, but boxes are actually visual aids for my analysis.

It's quite visual, try to interpret .
daily chart
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...n-1024x411.png
figure A, possibility
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...l-1024x382.png
figure b, possibility
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...w-1024x389.png
near term daily
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...y-1024x463.png
  • #12,111
  • Nov 3, 2012 3:01pm Nov 3, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting 5percent
i don't usually post charts anymore as everyone have their biasness/perspective, but here's are some perspectives of price on the chart that i done for the last 2 months of 2012. I don't trade price on any biasness of bull nor bear. I always trade it with two possibilities along with s,r and price action with fibo. So here are the charts, i won't elaborate or give analysis here, if you are interested about the analysis, pm me for links.

It's quite visual, try to interpret .
daily chart
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...n-1024x411.png
figure...
4 hours
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...m-1024x419.png
http://myforexbase.com/wp-content/up...k-1024x415.png
  • #12,112
  • Nov 3, 2012 3:50pm Nov 3, 2012 3:50pm
Good day DaddyBear, long time no see.. just like the last time, but I had to pass by and say hello, I added a comic market strips section in my blog and I remembered your excellent cartoons, have a good day and visit whenever you feel like it, cheers!
  • #12,113
  • Nov 3, 2012 3:52pm Nov 3, 2012 3:52pm
MAXI mentioned the roller coaster PA next week. I am not sure why he came to this point. My view is the outlook is bearish based on my daily chart reading.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,114
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:22pm Nov 3, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting Eric D
Good day DaddyBear, long time no see.. just like the last time, but I had to pass by and say hello, I added a comic market strips section in my blog and I remembered your excellent cartoons, have a good day and visit whenever you feel like it, cheers!
Blog link please. I have very limited access to the internet now due to the storm.
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,115
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:30pm Nov 3, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
MAXI mentioned the roller coaster PA next week. I am not sure why he came to this point. My view is the outlook is bearish based on my daily chart reading.
Last Friday the Bull got a free ride from the Bear on the way down ......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FREE RIDE.JPG Size: 75 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,116
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:36pm Nov 3, 2012 4:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Last Friday the Bull got a free ride from the Bear on the way down ......
What is next? N Bottoms?
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,117
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:37pm Nov 3, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What is next? N Bottoms?
Or, another scenario ......
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,118
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:39pm Nov 3, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Or, another scenario ......
As far as the Bear can see .........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BEAR'S EYES.JPG Size: 45 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,119
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:41pm Nov 3, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting DaddyBear
As far as the Bear can see .........
This is a zoom out picture of what is going to happen next .......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ROLLER COASTER-3.JPG Size: 75 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,120
  • Nov 3, 2012 4:43pm Nov 3, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is a zoom out picture of what is going to happen next .......
I'd call this post-Roller Coaster phenomena .....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1351978861
daddybearforex. com
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