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  • #12,081
  • Nov 1, 2012 9:53pm Nov 1, 2012 9:53pm
what we are all missing in this thread is DB's drawings^^
  • #12,082
  • Nov 1, 2012 10:19pm Nov 1, 2012 10:19pm
The analogy - something is off - may 12 gave aud/nzd/euro a boost upwards - yet while aud/nzd went up today, euro went down - doesn't really fit... hmm
  • #12,083
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:46am Nov 2, 2012 6:46am
today should be interesting - nzd is going up, while aud is going down - euro is down as well
  • #12,084
  • Nov 2, 2012 7:10am Nov 2, 2012 7:10am
euro is at the neckline of h/s formation. a move below that, would mean that euro will reach 1.25

NZD is odd, since it's the only pair that has moved up prior to employment release. I don't see as much of an upside to it as I do in other pairs - in case of good numbers.

euro may skyrocket, while nzd would move up and then down - IMO
  • #12,085
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:49am Nov 2, 2012 8:49am
Quoting dbutton1990
I'm still long on the AUD/USD...target for now is 1.0486
wow, really?

I think we'll see a daily doji today - that's not good for the longs.

Well - risk it, if you must.
  • #12,086
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:52am Nov 2, 2012 8:52am
Quoting maximmm
wow, really?

I think we'll see a daily doji today - that's not good for the longs.

Well - risk it, if you must.
I actually just closed it for a gain of 43 pips Will be looking for opportunities later on.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #12,087
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:55am Nov 2, 2012 8:55am
Quoting dbutton1990
I actually just closed it for a gain of 43 pips Will be looking for opportunities later on.
Well done^^
  • #12,088
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:58am Nov 2, 2012 9:58am
Last time commodity drops led Euro - this time, Euro will lead commodities. Euro having breached neckline in h/s pattern, is bound to move lower, much lower - 1.25 minimum. Aud and NZD will follow - though I suspect a bigger move down will take place next week rather than today.
  • #12,089
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:15am Nov 2, 2012 10:15am
Copper down by 1%+?
Sux to know that my junior copper company will take a beating on monday...


Quoting maximmm
Last time commodity drops led Euro - this time, Euro will lead commodities. Euro having breached neckline in h/s pattern, is bound to move lower, much lower - 1.25 minimum. Aud and NZD will follow - though I suspect a bigger move down will take place next week rather than today.
  • #12,090
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:21am Nov 2, 2012 10:21am
BTW - if May analogy is still intact - next week should be interesting
it seems to project Obama winning, thus no major moves in aud and nzd pairs (status quo should not lead to any major rallies/falls)
it seems to also project AUD keeping the interest rate the same, which should explain the projected spike above 1.04 (and a much smaller spike in NZD).
Yet, the following week (2 weeks from now) - a major downward move should begin - I have no idea what will cause it - fiscal cliff?

Anyways, that's as far as analogies go. For the time being, as previously mentioned, Euro having breached neckline - should lead commodities - so it's a safe sell right now, but if the may analogy stands true, AUD should make one last high above 1.04 (interest rate decision day) prior to the major fall.

- let's see how it all plays out.
  • #12,091
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:27am Nov 2, 2012 10:27am
btw, I am shorting NZD - only because of the projected AUD spike next week - I prefer to trade something that is projected to be a bit more bearish.
Of course, on the interest rate decision day, I may close half of my nzd shorts and open half aud longs - make a hedge trade for one day.
  • #12,092
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:27am Nov 2, 2012 10:27am
Which is good,
We could have unexpected rate cut and push aud lower



Quoting maximmm
BTW - if May analogy is still intact - next week should be interesting
it seems to project Obama winning, thus no major moves in aud and nzd pairs (status quo should not lead to any major rallies/falls)
it seems to also project AUD keeping the interest rate the same, which should explain the projected spike above 1.04 (and a much smaller spike in NZD).
Yet, the following week (2 weeks from now) - a major downward move should begin - I have no idea what will cause it - fiscal cliff?

Anyways, that's as far as analogies go. For the time being,...
  • #12,093
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:29am Nov 2, 2012 10:29am
Quoting HelloOz
Which is good,
We could have unexpected rate cut and push aud lower
Yep, but be wary of the may analogy - it seems to suggest otherwise - though it does project both aud and nzd stat a major move down two weeks from now.

This, of course, is only if the may analogy is still valid. I have a bit of an issue with euro not following the may movements - it is out of sync with aud and nzd (during may, they all followed each other)
  • #12,094
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:42am Nov 2, 2012 11:42am
DB,

I hope you are ok and are able to join us again soon. Been missing your comments and cartoons.

Respectfully,
fxstir
  • #12,095
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:44am Nov 2, 2012 11:44am
I suspect he'll be back in two weeks from now - when all of NY gets back its electricity.

Unless...
  • #12,096
  • Edited 2:01pm Nov 2, 2012 1:44pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting fxstir
DB,

I hope you are ok and are able to join us again soon. Been missing your comments and cartoons.

Respectfully,
fxstir
Hi fxstir and everybody, I have been without power and internet for 5 days and it may take another 5 days to get online again. I am using my provider's WI-FI in a nearby mall to post this message.

I hope everyone has had nice trading this week. Will post my comments when I can be online again.

DB
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,097
  • Nov 2, 2012 1:46pm Nov 2, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Hi fxstir and everybody, I have been without power and internet for 5 days and it may take another 5 days to get online again. I am using my provider's WI-FI in a nearby mall to post this message.

I hope everyone has nice trading this week. Will post my comments when I can be online again.

DB
By the way, when is RBA's next rate decision or rate cut?
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,098
  • Nov 2, 2012 1:48pm Nov 2, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting DaddyBear
By the way, when is RBA's next rate decision or rate cut?
While I was writing, the Aussie has dropped 25 pips. Based on daily ADX, the outlook is bearish at this point. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #12,099
  • Nov 2, 2012 1:52pm Nov 2, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting DaddyBear
By the way, when is RBA's next rate decision or rate cut?
@DB..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: db.PNG Size: 33 KB
GBP/USD
  • #12,100
  • Nov 2, 2012 1:59pm Nov 2, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting deepak925
@DB..
Thanks DP. DB

I have to go now. See you guys later.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342056484
daddybearforex. com
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