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  • #55,621
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:12am Nov 2, 2012 10:12am
So more focus should be on Spain and Italy rather than Greece? What to lookout for?
  • #55,622
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:16am Nov 2, 2012 10:16am
Quoting Roberto99
So more focus should be on Spain and Italy rather than Greece? What to lookout for?
Spain and italian bonds, keep an eye on their yields.... If yields on spain and italian bond rises, thats bad news for europe
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,623
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:22am Nov 2, 2012 10:22am
Wow look at gold... -1.8%...
  • #55,624
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:23am Nov 2, 2012 10:23am
Quoting HelloOz
Wow look at gold... -1.8%...
Yea i know..... Ive said countless times gold is heading to 1660.... Nobody would listen, im not even gona say who...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,625
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:25am Nov 2, 2012 10:25am
U have a much lower target right?

I could see some action on audusd soon.. I hope



Quoting fxtyrant
Yea i know..... Ive said countless times gold is heading to 1660.... Nobody would listen, im not even gona say who...
  • #55,626
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:26am Nov 2, 2012 10:26am
Quoting HelloOz
U have a much lower target right?

I could see some action on audusd soon.. I hope
Well looking at gold weekly i have ranges from 18xx and 15xx on gold....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,627
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:26am Nov 2, 2012 10:26am
Allow me to enlight you. First, recent EUR/USD decline is because of Tesoro intention to tap the the 2032 obligaciones bond, longest auctioned maturity bond.

Back to the euro, Greece passed a privatization bill on Wednesday, 2 MP PASOK members quit the party. International creditors are not satisifed with the EUR 19.5 billion bills that includes new austerity measures and selling ports and utilities so a House vote is demanded to ensure Greece will receive the next tranche of the bailout money. The bill just about passed with 17 PASOK MP's objecting to the new measures.

The House vote was scheduled for 20 November but it is now scheduled for 11 November. Opposition parties such as SYRZA said they will not let the bill pass. If bill is rejected (just like France House rejected the new budget plans for the next 5 years incase you missed it) Greece may not receive the next tranche that could result in a technical default, triggering CDS.

There is a 48 hour strike on 6/7 November against this bill by the unions. These troika negotiations got stuck on cuts in te labor sector. on top of that a Greek court ruled that Troika's pension reforms could be against the Greek constitution, which means a referednum may take place on Troika reforms. Greece is by gar the main focus for November as they are expected to run out of money by the end of the month.

To make it more difficult EU leaders are said to be working on a new bailout package for Greece for between EUR 15 billion - EUR 30 billion to make up for the cuts in labor sector. The speculated bailout is planned to be announced on 14 November but it has been unconfirmed so far.

Knowledge is power, good luck
  • #55,628
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:29am Nov 2, 2012 10:29am
Quoting fxtyrant
Yea i know..... Ive said countless times gold is heading to 1660.... Nobody would listen, im not even gona say who...

You're not the only one who's said gold was going to drop. It didn't go to 1820, so it went to 1680. Guess everyone should listen to me, regardless of the fact that I can be wrong just like everyone else.

This place should be friendly, not a place where you get an ego boost.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #55,629
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:29am Nov 2, 2012 10:29am
Quoting Roberto99
Allow me to enlight you. First, recent EUR/USD decline is because of Tesoro intention to tap the the 2032 obligaciones bond, longest auctioned maturity bond.

Back to the euro, Greece passed a privatization bill on Wednesday, 2 MP PASOK members quit the party. International creditors are not satisifed with the EUR 19.5 billion bills that includes new austerity measures and selling ports and utilities so a House vote is demanded to ensure Greece will receive the next tranche of the bailout money. The bill just about passed with 17 PASOK MP's objecting...
Yep when i talk about troika, thats exactly wt you talked about the debt negotiation with greece and that is deteriorating..... Pretty obvious and way overdue....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,630
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:31am Nov 2, 2012 10:31am
You do realise when the market finds out a new bailout package is being brewed there EUR/USD will rocket as well as the indices?
  • #55,631
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:33am Nov 2, 2012 10:33am
Quoting GnarlyPips
You're not the only one who's said gold was going to drop. It didn't go to 1820, so it went to 1680. Guess everyone should listen to me, regardless of the fact that I can be wrong just like everyone else.

This place should be friendly, not a place where you get an ego boost.
Im not here for ego, but when ppl say my analysis is bad an that im wrong, i take it personally 😃
Because i bothered to give my analysis out and not only are the analysisherenot appreciated, i get crucified.... Now i made peace with sidhu the other day so hopefully he'll be humbled by my reaching out and my gold call. End o story
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,632
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:34am Nov 2, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Roberto99
You do realise when the market finds out a new bailout package is being brewed there EUR/USD will rocket as well as the indices?
It also depends on what conditions are set on the bailout... Bailout are not always good news if conditions are too tough to meet...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,633
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:35am Nov 2, 2012 10:35am
The debt negotiation has been completed by the way, it's just the house vote now. I will give you another tip, Fitch are likely to downgrade US AAA rating. Last time there was a big order betting on a US downgrade in other markets a few days before S&P downgrade, the guy (said to be soros) made EUR 1.0 billion. I hope there will be something similar in the within the next 6 months
  • #55,634
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:35am Nov 2, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Roberto99
You do realise when the market finds out a new bailout package is being brewed there EUR/USD will rocket as well as the indices?
I think it is safer to go with technical analysis, rather than future bailouts - something Spain has denied time and time again.

Another thing to keep in mind, given that technical analysis overruled fundamental one - it is equally possible than when the bailout request does occur, market will simply shrug it off.

Regardless, euro is heading towards 1.25 next. Ideally, it should test 1.20, but I wouldn't want to go that far, since 1.25 may serve as a rebound line.
  • #55,635
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:36am Nov 2, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Roberto99
Allow me to enlight you. First, recent EUR/USD decline is because of Tesoro intention to tap the the 2032 obligaciones bond, longest auctioned maturity bond.

Back to the euro, Greece passed a privatization bill on Wednesday, 2 MP PASOK members quit the party. International creditors are not satisifed with the EUR 19.5 billion bills that includes new austerity measures and selling ports and utilities so a House vote is demanded to ensure Greece will receive the next tranche of the bailout money. The bill just about passed with 17 PASOK MP's objecting...
Very informative post Roberto!

Thanks for taking the time to share this with us. It's very appreciated.
  • #55,636
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:37am Nov 2, 2012 10:37am
Market wont care about bailout conditions because they wont be announced at the same time, probably a week later. The imapct would be strong gains in indices, I am keeping an eye on them for such a move (the new bailout is speulated and so far has been unconfirmed by EU)
  • #55,637
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:38am Nov 2, 2012 10:38am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Very informative post Roberto!

Thanks for taking the time to share this with us. It's very appreciated.
My pleasure
  • #55,638
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:38am Nov 2, 2012 10:38am
Quoting Roberto99
The debt negotiation has been completed by the way, it's just the house vote now. I will give you another tip, Fitch are likely to downgrade US AAA rating. Last time there was a big order betting on a US downgrade in other markets a few days before S&P downgrade, the guy (said to be soros) made EUR 1.0 billion. I hope there will be something similar in the within the next 6 months
Interesting u talk about downgrade, my most anticipated downgrade is UK i cant wait for UK to lose their AAA
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,639
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:46am Nov 2, 2012 10:46am
UK posted some fairly strong data in October, not sure it will happen so quickly. Take GDP as an exmaple
  • #55,640
  • Nov 2, 2012 10:50am Nov 2, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Roberto99
UK posted some fairly strong data in October, not sure it will happen so quickly. Take GDP as an exmaple
Im in UK, i live in uk and things arent as rosy as that 1% gdp growth suggests.. Especially when that 1% gdp growth was thanks to the one off effect of the olympics
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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