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AUD/USD

  • #55,581
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:28am Nov 2, 2012 8:28am
Quoting fxtyrant
Lol buddy, i aint talking bout economics but guess what?? Account still growing...
yes but you have some deep under water shorts. 1.0250 you have sold into and you are already 150 pips down and betting against the trend which is up.
  • #55,582
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:30am Nov 2, 2012 8:30am
Looks like AUD/USD will be making a new Daily high today. Probably within the next couple of hours at the rate it is going.

I can't wait until we hit 1.05 - 1.058 so that I can look to put on some heavy shorts after assessing price action.

November should be a great month after US elections. Hopefully it will give some direction for the next few months as well as more liquidity...
  • #55,583
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:30am Nov 2, 2012 8:30am
i just dont see aud falling too far if rate cut.

i believe stock markets will move higher, probably rate cut will propell AU stocks higher with 1st resistance 5k. I can see it pass that point and up to previous high 6.7k.

if au recession was in the cards stock market would be lower, especially banks.

Japan is grinding up and yen down. Stimuluses everywhere in asia.

shanghai bouncing off 2K. Would be nice to see it to 3k or so. resources lately strong in sympathy with chinese.

I am still having long term target audusd around 1.4 to 1.5 and euraud around 1. AUDJPY targetting 120. beyond these levels good place for accumulation.

now bite me
  • #55,584
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:31am Nov 2, 2012 8:31am
Quoting Nachiket
yes but you have some deep under water shorts. 1.0250 you have sold into and you are already 150 pips down and betting against the trend which is up.
How is the trend up?? We havent even retraced 100% of the drop from the 1.06 fall on the weekly bud....
Also i aint really under water, a cording to my account, the drawdown im facing with soooooo much shorts is only keeping me 12% in water, for me, my tolerance is 20% so please... Different style trading buddy.... If u thing 150 pip drawdown is gona make me suffer?? Makes me wonder if 300 pip profit would be interesting
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,585
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:32am Nov 2, 2012 8:32am
Quoting macroman
i just dont see aud falling too far if rate cut.

i believe stock markets will move higher, probably rate cut will propell AU stocks higher with 1st resistance 5k. I can see it pass that point and up to previous high 6.7k.

if au recession was in the cards stock market would be lower, especially banks.

Japan is grinding up and yen down. Stimuluses everywhere in asia.

shanghai bouncing off 2K. Would be nice to see it to 3k or so. resources lately strong in sympathy with chinese.

I am still having long term target audusd around 1.4 to 1.5...
If rate is cut, AUD will fall substantially.
next target 0.98^^ We could do this all day - but at the end of the day, only one of us will be right^^
  • #55,586
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:33am Nov 2, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Nachiket
AUD will not fall now. It will not fall after RBA also. mark my words. rally till 1.06
I completely agree! This is why I still have many AUD/JPY longs which are all well in profit at this time!
  • #55,587
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:33am Nov 2, 2012 8:33am
Quoting fxtyrant
How is the trend up?? We havent even retraced 100% of the drop from the 1.06 fall on the weekly bud....
if the trend is not up the trend is not down either. aussie has broken out of a long term consolidation zone which makes it bullish. if 1.0412 goes I see 1.0450 also by monday and then 1.05
  • #55,588
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:34am Nov 2, 2012 8:34am
Quoting fxtyrant
We'll see 😉 watch ur macd rollover to bearish then the momentum will start to kick in
Nah, I think I'll stick to my own analysis, it seems to be working just fine...
  • #55,589
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:35am Nov 2, 2012 8:35am
Quoting maximmm
If rate is cut, AUD will fall substantially.
next target 0.98^^ We could do this all day - but at the end of the day, only one of us will be right^^
He will not cut rates this month when he knows market is hugh short aussie.
  • #55,590
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:42am Nov 2, 2012 8:42am
Quoting Nachiket
He will not cut rates this month when he knows market is hugh short aussie.
And you know this how?? Its not like you know the RBA chairman or something
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,591
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:47am Nov 2, 2012 8:47am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yea I've noticed...

However, some currencies such as AUD and NZD are more "Risk-On" type of currencies so when Equities rise they tend to rise with them more so then EUR and GBP.

EUR and GBP tend to act almost in the same manner as the USD in some cases and do not really play the role as "Risk-On" currencies such as AUD and NZD hence the divergence between currencies such as EUR and AUD.

There is more to it then this but the divergence is clear and the factors are many.

Hope everybody is doing well!
correct, good observation.

eur and gbp tend to be more fundamental and emotional pair, best trading method is always to use buy sell stop on them as they always drag from one to another then bounce quite quickly too, so tp on eur and gbp if not long term must be quick, a target of 20-40 drop is quite good already especially during news trading.

earlier, while gold plunges, eur plunges, indices like sp500 maintained suggesting some sort of risk on sentiment. although usd dollar index jump earlier and some how shows correlation to eurusd, one up one down just like gold, but aud/usd was not affected and found bids as mentioned earlier there are buyers on dip on this pair as it seat nicely on the ltl.

still 1.0350 was not attack yet, maintained on 1.0370 before news cracking into 1.0363 but the rejection was really fast, the macd on min 5 changed.

during the first few minutes of the news trading, it make a spike up to 1.0383, then back to 1.0363, but rejected again, as it crosses, up and crossed 1.0383 into 1.0395 area.

the next motion was 1.0383, turns resistance turns support, as price takes the bounce off there, back to 1.0393 area.

so we are in the range of 1.0383-1.0400, see which sides crack again, but the upside is more probable. a crack of 1.0415 seen on near daily resistance will send this pair to 1.0441, then into 1.06 again.

even if downside crack, we still have 1.0363-83. so more ranging to be expected or upside breakout is likely once across board are moving in one direction, meanwhile eur is down, gold is down, aud is up, so its mixed,



daily is back near doji-indecisiveness.
  • #55,592
  • Nov 2, 2012 8:55am Nov 2, 2012 8:55am
Quoting 5percent
correct, good observation.

eur and gbp tend to be more fundamental and emotional pair, best trading method is always to use buy sell stop on them as they always drag from one to another then bounce quite quickly too, so tp on eur and gbp if not long term must be quick, a target of 20-40 drop is quite good already especially during news trading.

earlier, while gold plunges, eur plunges, indices like sp500 maintained suggesting some sort of risk on sentiment. although usd dollar index jump earlier and some how shows correlation to eurusd, one...

5Percent,

First of all I want to say that I really enjoy reading your posts. Good information and your presentation is not cocky or condescending.You should post more often in this thread.

Now here are my thoughts for the near future. Once EUR and GBP "retrace" up from today's down move, AUD will also move upwards but a little quicker (which is normal for AUD in comparison to EUR and GBP most of the time) sending AUD even higher.

Thanks for your input 5Percent!
  • #55,593
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:00am Nov 2, 2012 9:00am
This is pretty frustrating. We've been range bound for ages! I miss the days when the aussie had at least 100 atr.
  • #55,594
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:07am Nov 2, 2012 9:07am
Quoting Iro
This is pretty frustrating. We've been range bound for ages! I miss the days when the aussie had at least 100 atr.
That is because we are nearing the top..... And of you expect a 100 pip move, thatll have to happen at breakouts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,595
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:08am Nov 2, 2012 9:08am
Quoting 100PipsADay
5Percent,

First of all I want to say that I really enjoy reading your posts. Good information and your presentation is not cocky or condescending.You should post more often in this thread.

Now here are my thoughts for the near future. Once EUR and GBP "retrace" up from today's down move, AUD will also move upwards but a little quicker (which is normal for AUD in comparison to EUR and GBP most of the time) sending AUD even higher.

Thanks for your input 5Percent!
I think you will find major divergence between different pairs today, much like yesterday.

Euro may retrace 20 pips prior to continuation of the downward move, aud is unlikely to much much higher - with daily doji forming - indicating a downward move next week.
  • #55,596
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:09am Nov 2, 2012 9:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
That is because we are nearing the top..... And of you expect a 100 pip move, thatll have to happen at breakouts
How do you know this is the top Tyrant?

If you KNOW this is the top, then why do you have so many under water shorts????? You should have waited "for the top" as you clearly know where it is...

I think you meant to say "I hope this is the top" right?
  • #55,597
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:10am Nov 2, 2012 9:10am
Quoting maximmm
I think you will find major divergence between different pairs today, much like yesterday.

Euro may retrace 20 pips prior to continuation of the downward move, aud is unlikely to much much higher - with daily doji forming - indicating a downward move next week.
I know, I already posted WHY I think this is happening. All I'm concerned with at the moment is AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY.
  • #55,598
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:17am Nov 2, 2012 9:17am
Quoting 100PipsADay
How do you know this is the top Tyrant?

If you KNOW this is the top, then why do you have so many under water shorts????? You should have waited "for the top" as you clearly know where it is...

I think you meant to say "I hope this is the top" right?
No i know we are nearing the top dude... Just look at price action on higher tf due....
Also i a long term trader....
I have short at 1.02 topped at 1.0550 i see so thats 350 pips drawdown, while i see bottom at 0.95 and 0.98, from short at 1.02, risk reward of shorting is still greater than longing....
I either get 400 or 700 pips profit on this 350 pip drawdown.... Its my style of trading and i wont expect you to learn this method cuz you are quite the short term trader i see
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,599
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:19am Nov 2, 2012 9:19am
Out of the 21 economists that asked to forecast the RBA move 14 believe there will be a rate cut next week while 7 economists believe the RBA will put rates on hold and wait for the CPI release to see whether there is a need to ease further. The RBA couldn't care less about short trades on Aussie, where did you get that from? It's not a private investment bank like Duetche for example
  • #55,600
  • Nov 2, 2012 9:21am Nov 2, 2012 9:21am
Quoting fxtyrant
No i know we are nearing the top dude... Just look at price action on higher tf due....
Also i a long term trader....
I have short at 1.02 topped at 1.0550 i see so thats 350 pips drawdown, while i see bottom at 0.95 and 0.98, from short at 1.02, risk reward of shorting is still greater than longing....
I either get 400 or 700 pips profit on this 350 pip drawdown.... Its my style of trading and i wont expect you to learn this method cuz you are quite the short term trader i see
Yeap 1:1.. even bet i dont see anything wrong with this
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