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AUD/USD

  • #55,541
  • Nov 2, 2012 4:01am Nov 2, 2012 4:01am
Quoting 100PipsADay
So far it has been a very unconvincing "sell off" or consolidation. Whichever term you prefer go ahead and use.

I won't be surprised one bit to see the bulls step in at any moment and take it up to daily highs...

AUD/USD is over sold on M15, M30, and H1. Could be a good buy scalp opportunity if/when price hits Daily S1...

**Bears Beware**
the daily closing was above above the previous day high area. price may continue to find buyers on dip into 1.0350 area, only a crack below 1.0350 will neutralize the outlook of bullish momentum.

1.0415 area still shows some resistance, slight push above the wick will send buy stops position higher, a break above 1.0441 area is likely to send price action into the next range of 1.0441-1.0515, where bull will show domination.

meanwhile, still shows range from 1.0395-1.0370/50.
  • #55,542
  • Nov 2, 2012 4:15am Nov 2, 2012 4:15am
Dear all,

Don't have my (MT4) chart with me (working now), H4 shows resistance around 1.0450 (40) area.
I'm pretty bearish AUDUSD and likewise, awaiting NFP tonight.

NFP > 150K+ will invalidate my Short trade. Anything below, i'm shorting 1.0450, SL 1.0480.

Good luck everyone!
  • #55,543
  • Nov 2, 2012 4:20am Nov 2, 2012 4:20am
Quoting 5percent
the daily closing was above above the previous day high area. price may continue to find buyers on dip into 1.0350 area, only a crack below 1.0350 will neutralize the outlook of bullish momentum.

1.0415 area still shows some resistance, slight push above the wick will send buy stops position higher, a break above 1.0441 area is likely to send price action into the next range of 1.0441-1.0515, where bull will show domination.

meanwhile, still shows range from 1.0395-1.0370/50.
Thank you for your insight 5Percent. Always good to get other people's analysis and perspective.
  • #55,544
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:11am Nov 2, 2012 5:11am
AU 5 min chart, looks like a down trend.
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  • #55,545
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:15am Nov 2, 2012 5:15am
Quoting postino
AU 5 min chart, looks like a down trend.
next is another low and break support 1.0370
  • #55,546
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:19am Nov 2, 2012 5:19am
ON daily we are below cloud and dancing along lower edge of cloud.I think we could go to weekly suport line which is arround weekly 200 EMA.Big move of course and long one.

But for that first on 1 hr we ned sell signal and break on that suport line then take profit maybe at 4hr suport line and then all the way down.

for this we need some market mover like for example move money from risky position in euro and AUD to dollar again because of some extra good news for USA or bad news from rest of the world so people coud close theare sell dolar position and decide to buy him as one of safe haven places.
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  • #55,547
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:24am Nov 2, 2012 5:24am
Quoting fxtyrant
watch out for a pullback to 1.0300/1.0330 area..... its in the H4 chart....
id be interested to see what the NFP does.... My guess we may have a Daily candle of a Bearish Engulfing Candle.... That'll be interesting....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,548
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:32am Nov 2, 2012 5:32am
Quoting plesac
ON daily we are below cloud and dancing along lower edge of cloud.I think we could go to weekly suport line which is arround weekly 200 EMA.Big move of course and long one.

But for that first on 1 hr we ned sell signal and break on that suport line then take profit maybe at 4hr suport line and then all the way down.

for this we need some market mover like for example move money from risky position in euro and AUD to dollar again because of some extra good news for USA or bad news from rest of the world so people coud close theare sell dolar...
To day i see break 1 hr suport line and reach 4hr suport line 1.03
  • #55,549
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:37am Nov 2, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Tim_isoara
To day i see break 1 hr suport line and reach 4hr suport line 1.03
Hope so. I've been holding on to my 1.032 shorts for 2 weeks.

Thinking of reducing positions at 1.035 onwards.
  • #55,550
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:45am Nov 2, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Tim_isoara
To day i see break 1 hr suport line and reach 4hr suport line 1.03

yespossible.On 1 hr we still dont have close below 1 hr support line or cloud..Possible 1 more try of 3095 or 4017 and then again down.Today is friday so if nothing happens until london close dont think that US will bring somthing.Also if Europe bring something need to see will they close position at close session or will leave it open for next week.Many see AUD down but that is time when he can make up move despite all.

I have made 1 small short because of bolinger position but for now it very week signal.

still 15 minutes for this 1 hr close.will see
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  • #55,551
  • Nov 2, 2012 5:59am Nov 2, 2012 5:59am
Quoting plesac
yespossible.On 1 hr we still dont have close below 1 hr support line or cloud..Possible 1 more try of 3095 or 4017 and then again down.Today is friday so if nothing happens until london close dont think that US will bring somthing.Also if Europe bring something need to see will they close position at close session or will leave it open for next week.Many see AUD down but that is time when he can make up move despite all.

I have made 1 small short because of bolinger position but for now it very week signal.

still 15 minutes for this 1 hr close.will...
But because today is NFP i wait and after i want to short.
  • #55,552
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:07am Nov 2, 2012 6:07am
Quoting postino
Hope so. I've been holding on to my 1.032 shorts for 2 weeks.

Thinking of reducing positions at 1.035 onwards.
that must be painful for negative swaps. few reason i don't like to hold long term shorts on aud because of swaps, intra-day wise not so bad, since position can be closed easily or stopped out.
  • #55,553
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:13am Nov 2, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Tim_isoara
But because today is NFP i wait and after i want to short.
Me too but that 1 hr just closed in neutral position. i will hold that small sell but will wait for new positions.Big guys need to want to sell too.

on 1 hr chart i see that dark blue resistance line.Touch of that would be very nice sell position with minimum risk.Maybe even 5-10 pips.

On 4 hr chart not long ago (on 1.11 at 16hr) we had triangle break on up.On my chart.Red and blue lines for tiangle.when we put that 2 resistance line together on 1 hr chart we have....indecion about that break on up.We are liking that 4 hr triangle resistance line for 2 hours and this is 3-rd.

Will see if NFP is catalizator for closing buy and selling this to tahat 4 hr support line and finaly as i will like to see for now that weekly support way below
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  • #55,554
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:16am Nov 2, 2012 6:16am
Quoting 5percent
that must be painful for negative swaps. few reason i don't like to hold long term shorts on aud because of swaps, intra-day wise not so bad, since position can be closed easily or stopped out.
i have account with broker for long time trade with fixed swaps.Arap account is the name or sometning like that.So when i expect big fall like this on AUD i open trade theare.For daily trade have usualy account with usual swap thing
  • #55,555
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:21am Nov 2, 2012 6:21am
Quoting 5percent
that must be painful for negative swaps. few reason i don't like to hold long term shorts on aud because of swaps, intra-day wise not so bad, since position can be closed easily or stopped out.
Yes it hurts, but isn't it the same when shorting every other currency other than AUD/NZD?

This is still pretty new to me and I've just picked up technical evaluation and money management. Since the chart look ranging instead of trending I thought I'll eventually breakeven. Didn't want to put tight stop loss due to spikes.
  • #55,556
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:33am Nov 2, 2012 6:33am
[quote=plesac;6156604]Me too but that 1 hr just closed in neutral position. i will hold that small sell but will wait for new positions.Big guys need to want to sell too.

on 1 hr chart i see that dark blue resistance line.Touch of that would be very nice sell position with minimum risk.Maybe even 5-10 pips.


dark blue resistance is 50% fib retracement 1.0393. in taht area is good to sell. i agree
  • #55,557
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:50am Nov 2, 2012 6:50am
and down it goes.
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  • #55,558
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:54am Nov 2, 2012 6:54am
Quoting postino
and down it goes.
Price is still sitting on S1...

What time frame is that?
  • #55,559
  • Nov 2, 2012 6:58am Nov 2, 2012 6:58am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Price is still sitting on S1...

What time frame is that?
5M, sorry shouldn't have posted that, just hoping to get out at breakeven before the news comes out.
  • #55,560
  • Nov 2, 2012 7:00am Nov 2, 2012 7:00am
Quoting postino
5M, sorry shouldn't have posted that, just hoping to get out at breakeven before the news comes out.
LOL. I see...

I wish you the best with your trades Postino!
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