still waiting for the reversal.... and its no where to be seen until possibly 1.0550
- #55,504
- Nov 1, 2012 6:24pm Nov 1, 2012 6:24pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 3,386 Posts
The long Eur/AUD players are getting real edgy right now.
Tonight we have Obama's election favourite- Unemployment-. What number are they going to come up with? (Is this why they have flown in the fudget specialist Australian treasurer Wayne Swan to tweak it.)
Then on Tuesday we have RBA interest rate decision.
But it gets worse a US election the same week.
No doubt we have the dip buyers with shovel at hand.
And a quick peak over that GBP/AUD and 1.5450 could be a trapdoor.
The ducks are lining up...
The market has been complacent for too long and experience tells me the vols are about to come to the party..
Happy fry day !!
Tonight we have Obama's election favourite- Unemployment-. What number are they going to come up with? (Is this why they have flown in the fudget specialist Australian treasurer Wayne Swan to tweak it.)
Then on Tuesday we have RBA interest rate decision.
But it gets worse a US election the same week.
No doubt we have the dip buyers with shovel at hand.
And a quick peak over that GBP/AUD and 1.5450 could be a trapdoor.
The ducks are lining up...
The market has been complacent for too long and experience tells me the vols are about to come to the party..
Happy fry day !!
- #55,505
- Nov 1, 2012 6:40pm Nov 1, 2012 6:40pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
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- #55,506
- Nov 1, 2012 6:43pm Nov 1, 2012 6:43pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts
There really is no point is shorting after 1.0435-40 because from there their is little resistance on fib levels. Retail sales will provide some relief to the Short side question is where will we be trading at before that release 
- #55,507
- Nov 1, 2012 6:45pm Nov 1, 2012 6:45pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
There really is no point is shorting after 1.0435-40 because from there their is little resistance on fib levels. Retail sales will provide some relief to the Short side question is where will we be trading at before that release
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return:
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- #55,509
- Nov 1, 2012 6:53pm Nov 1, 2012 6:53pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,807 Posts
As much as international econ releases push risk up in general or risk off the domestic economy will always assert itself and their numbers are most important. All this Europe, US releases are secondary and the spikes each way always gets filled and the overall trend reasserts itself.
RBA/Treas are worried like all central planners But its less to do with their growth rate or foreign debt demand and has more to do with Pricing pressures, Foreign competition given the rate, and the deteriorating trade balance.
There are only a few key releases or PA breakouts that occur each year that sets a trend for some time. Australia has not even breached the first layer of 'trend changing' modes but you better believe after the last cut it is now on the radar.
Ask David Einhorn finally a hedgie is coming into the game and he has a stellar track record on the short side.
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post...b-04321d3147e1
RBA/Treas are worried like all central planners But its less to do with their growth rate or foreign debt demand and has more to do with Pricing pressures, Foreign competition given the rate, and the deteriorating trade balance.
There are only a few key releases or PA breakouts that occur each year that sets a trend for some time. Australia has not even breached the first layer of 'trend changing' modes but you better believe after the last cut it is now on the radar.
Ask David Einhorn
finally a hedgie is coming into the game and he has a stellar track record on the short side.http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post...b-04321d3147e1
- #55,512
- Nov 1, 2012 7:00pm Nov 1, 2012 7:00pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
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- #55,513
- Nov 1, 2012 7:04pm Nov 1, 2012 7:04pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
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- #55,516
- Nov 1, 2012 7:07pm Nov 1, 2012 7:07pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
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- #55,517
- Nov 1, 2012 7:10pm Nov 1, 2012 7:10pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
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- #55,518
- Nov 1, 2012 7:10pm Nov 1, 2012 7:10pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
US economy is actually slowly growing out of recession... I'm very positive that a real estate bottom has been put in for a long time. The numbers will bring in confidence and I don't think they are fudged more than they have been before.
http://www.dailywealth.com/2248/This...our-Retirement
- #55,519
- Nov 1, 2012 7:13pm Nov 1, 2012 7:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
umm yea ADP and NFP can easily be manipulated... perhaps you never heard a year ago that Prior to NFP the Government added 40k jobs on top purely on part timers which happens to be census surveyors....
also ADP is infamously known to be a bad indication for NFP..... very often we've seen Good ADP one day and Bad NFP the other....
Problem is.... i have to agree with you.... ADP come up strong... and NFP might come up strong as well but i sense all this are manipulation prior to the election.....
soooo im absolutely clueless what the hell...
So bears need to hope that official numbers are MUCH worse than last night's ADP figures. However, due to the fact that ADP is a private company and is responsible for handling 16% of all US W2 forms, I'm going to have to say that numbers published by ADP would be more accurate.
- #55,520
- Edited 7:28pm Nov 1, 2012 7:17pm | Edited 7:28pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 10,268 Posts
We already went over this, manipulation or not, market trades what it hears and sees.
So bears need to hope that official numbers are MUCH worse than last night's ADP figures. However, due to the fact that ADP is a private company and is responsible for handling 16% of all US companies' payrolls, I'm going to have to say that numbers published by ADP would be more accurate.
if it wasnt for the election.... ADP figures would conflict with the Official NFP figures 70% of the time...
Besides like you say.... ADP only handling 16% of all US companies' Payroll, so how is that ACCURATE?! it doesnt even represent the majority.... have you studied statistics before??
Also you bring up subject like Housing market bottom.... if Housing market were to start picking up.... SURELY the Europeans, the Australians, the British would want to BUY the Dollar in order to Re-invest in the US Housing Markets now Wouldnt They??
The Fact the Dollar is Still Being Held at a Barrier suggests to me that Someone is Keeping the Equities up and the Dollar down..... and i will have to say its the QE money playing its tricks....
Also, be careful of the election because that maybe the game changer.... if Ben bernanke loses his job after election.... you can say bye to that Unlimited QE, That was his Last bullet in his gun, and if that couldnt keep him in Office, then he and his policies are out for good....
Problem is.... and this confuses me big time.... Mitt Romney's policies on paper are ones similar to the bush administrative where they plunged the economy in huge debts..... and yet Obama IN office now is letting the Fed drive the economy in further and further debt?? with QE? its like the whole US economy is based on debts and it will continue to grow their debt....
i hope Obama in his 2nd term will oust the fed, be more like clinton, and curb the damn fiscal deficit..... OBAMA better stick to his word on Fiscal Cliff....
If obama gets a 2nd term, he better get some balls up and stop letting the damn Republican Congress dictate his action to curb deficit.... understand this... Obama doesnt want QE.... its the US Republican dominated congress whos pushing for it.... Obama is playing puppet for the last 4 years of his 1st term... when US elects a democratic president then a republican majority congress.... you know shit aint gona go smooth for Obama....
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