Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

went into danger zone 1.0405, if sustained and closed above, shorts may want to take a 2nd perspectives, if your not far away it's not so bad.But any shorts below 1.03 from 1.02 may want to be wary.

buy low sell high only works in range, after breakout point, use a 2nd perspectives when trading with trend/breakout, which is buy high sell low price action.

NZD also making new highs - err... NZD is also very close to the triangle line - 30 pips away. If NZD breaches the line, then I suspect the May analogy is invalid. Otherwise, my view remains the same.

May analogy suggests a new high prior to the fall - I thought that would happen on Friday, but I'm open to the possibility of it happening today.

New high means 1.0440 or so.

The implication is such that the big tumble will occur sooner rather than later. For obvious reasons, I'd suggest everyone to follow their own plans.

short
target 0355
stop : 0412

Your turn max....

Nice

Pin on 15m
Let see if it will go 388

The May analogy is somewhat puzzling - NZD should make new highs, while Aud should remain within range, and then later Aud should make new highs, while NZD should go up only a little bit.

If we are in this scenario, then Aud should head down now..... hmm, but that would imply that a move above 1.04 is still in the cards prior to elections, while NZD will be a bit more bearish.

Haha. Short 1.04, stop 1.06.
Target 0.98^^

Looks like i will be buying xmas presents frm amazon lol...

Wow
Im happy with 388


Going to bed now
Hopefully i see red bars when i wake up

daily TF suggest that upside move till 1.04700 , while weekly till 1.056. Anyone else seeing this ?

Trader sentiment switching bullish 100% - interestingly, that is a good sign for the bears.

If Aud goes to 1.0440 today, I won't be going long in this pair when it comes down, since that would suggest the completion of the up move and the beginning of a sustained downward move.

PS. Unless I am completely wrong!^^

after AUD goes back to 1.0360 level, I'll probably close my shorts and start shorting NZD -

May analogy suggests that AUD has one big rally left - heading above 1.0410
In comparison, NZD just experienced its last big rally to the top and the final rally upwards should be less aggressive than that of AUD - therefore below 0.8270.

The point being, I really don't want to go long AUD (NZD though should be more bearish from this point on)- given my long term outlook.

Something to keep in mind - if NZD breaches 0.8310, I'll have to rethink my bearish stance - since that would not bode well for the May tumble analogy.

So far today, European pairs Euro and GBP are down - Asian (AUD and NZD) pairs are up - JPY is weakening, while CHF is strengthening. Major divergence going on.

Most curious.

Today is the day when the fate of AUD and NZD gets decided. I expect tick up first (NZD moving possibly to 0.83) and then a big move down - or so says May analogy. If the move down doesn't happen and NZD moves above 0.8310 - bearish bias is off.

The weird thing about May tumble analogy - it says that the big move down will occur in 11 or so days. The elections, however, are in 3/4 days - in other words, May analogy suggests that AUD and NZD won't stumble immediately after the elections - but will do so only after one week.

This is something to keep in mind.

the earlier asia market price action has slow down the bull strength, but its still currently on the former resistance of previous day on 1.0395 area, and closing was above 1.0390, this makes resistance turns support, price is still on the upwards move. Only a move down for price to contain 1.0375 area will likely to slow down the bull strength, being the employment data day, it can be a crazy day or bull run or sell off at any point.

On the upside, as long price is contained below 1.0441 area, we are still be in a neutral zone of range, but above 1.0441 is likely to bring price further up to 1.0515 area before the top at 1.0618 area.

before the further up move, price may go down into yesterday's region and find more existing bids and buyers for the upmove. only a crack below yesterday's low will neutralize this bull out look.

being a employment data day, it's easier to use buy/sell stop if u don't have an existing position on the event, so one don't fight trend.

I think it's already been a crazy day if only b/c of mixed signals in different pairs

It's hard for me to comment on AUD - on one hand, there's May analogy - on the other hand, there's weekly triangle. I'm now selling NZD because it is pretty much only 40 pips away from the weekly triangle line - so stops are tight, while the bottom is nearly 700 pips away. Also, May analogy suggests that NZD will be a bit weaker than AUD for the next little while - until the tumble, if it occurs.

I do think this is an important day that will either confirm the may analogy price action, or negate it.