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  • #55,461
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:30am Nov 1, 2012 1:30am
Quoting bogus
Yes, a bit early for that. I'm not opposed to trading off a 1 minute chart at all. In your attachment price is going sideways, nothing is happening on even a one minute chart, therefore a coin toss. A gamble in my book. I do use straddles, but not on that timeframe.
Ah ok, I undersand now. That's my fault. I agree with you, entering a trade now is gambling.
What I wanted to underline is GU sidewalked all the asian session, so I expect a quick move when It starts to move again.
If you want to catch the move, you will have the first signal in the 1 min chart, not in the 4H.
But trying to catch sig in the 1min chart is painfull and not always rewarded.
Hope that clarifies my post.
Have a nice day.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,462
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:32am Nov 1, 2012 1:32am
Thank you Z.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,463
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:38am Nov 1, 2012 1:38am
I dont see any reason to be a buyer with the WEEKLY showing almost a Pinbar but its still early. As for the best entry stick to your plan but look at the confluence walls that I have mentioned millions of times as they have been great barriers for the ceiling of this range as well as the floor level.

If you were looking to buy look to the path of least resistance and that is after 1.0445 because after that their is open air between the next confluence area.

As for Seller well that is based on what RBA plans on doing next week but We all can acknowledge that 1.02 is a very defensive level
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  • #55,464
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:45am Nov 1, 2012 1:45am
Quoting maximinus
Ah ok, I undersand now. That's my fault. I agree with you, entering a trade now is gambling.
What I wanted to underline is GU sidewalked all the asian session, so I expect a quick move when It starts to move again.
If you want to catch the move, you will have the first signal in the 1 min chart, not in the 4H.
But trying to catch sig in the 1min chart is painfull and not always rewarded.
Hope that clarifies my post.
Have a nice day.
Cool. I agree with you there. People are looking at the weekly chart, which we should, but who trades off it?? Also, like you say, trades start off on the smaller timeframes, but I only use them to get in early on an existing trend, not a reversal. I see the 4 hour macd people are pointing out as valid, but MACD is a lagging indicator. For it to paint, price must first move lower and show up as a lower peak and trough on the 15 minute or 1 hour. Also, G/$ is a different beast which I don't trade.Good trading to you.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,465
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:50am Nov 1, 2012 1:50am
Quoting bogus
Cool.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,466
  • Nov 1, 2012 1:52am Nov 1, 2012 1:52am
Quoting Willow
You are right.
But this happens because AUD is sso ... demanded...
When it has to fall, it doesn't fall, it goes up and when it has to go up, the boyz manipulate it and ends up by falling.

Right now, it has a 99.999% chance to fall from 1.0372 to 1.0325 ... and i know what i'm talking about.

So, if you want to long it, just wait a bit more; it's late and dangerous.
Me, i have 13 yr of trading, i know all the indicators, i even have my own invented indicator but i gave up all of them and watch only one simple moving average, which comes...
Id have to disagree with you here.
So many are under the misconception there is no order to the markets when in truth it is just that most do not have the ability to adequately read the markets on a day to day basis.

The movement of the Aussie recently has been absolutely predictable in recent weeks. Read back through some of my posts and you will see that I called most of the highs and lows from the swings to the literal pip, trigger numbers, direction, flip zones, etc.

Fact is we are channeling in this zone:

1: due to the natural disaster in the East coast of the US.

2. The upcoming US elections.

3. because this is a major area where position players are building. Always have since price has been price. These guys are HUGE players with massive stops and they enter trades in small sections as price moves from mini zone to mini zone in alignment with their longer term views. Its all told in price. The 0351/0360/0373 has massive implications in the large M/W time frames. Correlating risk markets are all at critical levels at critical times. The Dow is flirting with the 13,000 again, the S&P is leaning against the 1396, the ASX is nearing the 4370.... etc

Make no mistake, we are getting ready for a major move before the holidays. With proper PA the best R:R is actually looking Long since we are so close to critical support if you are a longer term trader.


Just my .02 brother, just dont want to many guys falling into the trap that the markets make no sense. The lone caveat to this is the synthetically created supply that central banks around the world have embarked on. This generally lessens volume and creates a bit more choppy price action as the excess supply is absorbed into the markets. A good example is the recent PA of the Euro and GBP.
  • #55,467
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:02am Nov 1, 2012 2:02am
fuhh...quite tricky to trade in my opinion...just wait and see first...thanks to all of u...may victory belongs to us
  • #55,468
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:08am Nov 1, 2012 2:08am
Quoting jplazard
I dont see any reason to be a buyer with the WEEKLY showing almost a Pinbar but its still early. As for the best entry stick to your plan but look at the confluence walls that I have mentioned millions of times as they have been great barriers for the ceiling of this range as well as the floor level.

If you were looking to buy look to the path of least resistance and that is after 1.0445 because after that their is open air between the next confluence area.

As for Seller well that is based on what RBA plans on doing next week but We all can acknowledge...
I just read your post. Mine was referring to a daytrading point of view, as apposed to a position trader like yourself. Trying to learn about fundamentals from your great posts.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,469
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:11am Nov 1, 2012 2:11am
Quoting Wulfgar
Id have to disagree with you here.
So many are under the misconception there is no order to the markets when in truth it is just that most do not have the ability to adequately read the markets on a day to day basis.

The movement of the Aussie recently has been absolutely predictable in recent weeks. Read back thro..........
.............
synthetically created supply that central banks around the world have embarked on. This generally lessens volume and creates a bit more choppy price action as the excess supply is absorbed into the markets....
The truth pendulates between you and me, depending on the leverage one uses... big boys use 1:1 and that's stressless and predictable, i agree.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #55,470
  • Nov 1, 2012 2:41am Nov 1, 2012 2:41am
Bogus,

my apologies I have to remember that other traders here are more short TF type players and That I would be the furthest to the right when it comes to Short Term-Long term scale.

as for a daytrading setup going long at these levels to retest the upper band setting a stop loss a bit below could work out as I have the feeling we willl be in this tight range with a spike (and fill) here and there as the week comes to a close.

Would not be surprised we are trading at the RBA OCT cut Hourly bar open from the way the PA has been this week
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  • #55,471
  • Nov 1, 2012 3:02am Nov 1, 2012 3:02am
Quoting jplazard
Bogus,

my apologies I have to remember that other traders here are more short TF type players and That I would be the furthest to the right when it comes to Short Term-Long term scale.

as for a daytrading setup going long at these levels to retest the upper band setting a stop loss a bit below could work out as I have the feeling we willl be in this tight range with a spike (and fill) here and there as the week comes to a close.

Would not be surprised we are trading at the RBA OCT cut Hourly bar open from the way the PA has been this week
Your posts make me think I trade short term because I think fundamentals have less to do with intra day swings. It's good to hear about the Macro picture and the reasons why price does what it does.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,472
  • Nov 1, 2012 3:59am Nov 1, 2012 3:59am
Quoting jplazard
Bogus,

my apologies I have to remember that other traders here are more short TF type players and That I would be the furthest to the right when it comes to Short Term-Long term scale.

as for a daytrading setup going long at these levels to retest the upper band setting a stop loss a bit below could work out as I have the feeling we willl be in this tight range with a spike (and fill) here and there as the week comes to a close.

Would not be surprised we are trading at the RBA OCT cut Hourly bar open from the way the PA has been this week...
Im the same way macro only but short term needs to line up with long term thats the only thing you are missing in becoming a dominant trader...try to capture understanding of intraday swings and your going to hit a few home runs
  • #55,473
  • Nov 1, 2012 4:02am Nov 1, 2012 4:02am
Quoting fxtyrant
Lol i dont need no dressed up girl
the non dressed up type that u like are like a needle ina hay stack bro kinda like picking direction in the market eh?
  • #55,474
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:02am Nov 1, 2012 5:02am
They seem quite positive ....


China's Manufacturing Sector resumed its expansion

· The official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) rebounded to 50.2 in October, after dropping to below 50 for two consecutive months. This improvement suggests that China’s growth momentum has rebounded and this trend will be sustained further. We maintain our forecast that China’s GDP growth will rebound to around 8% y/y in Q4.
· As China’s once-a-decade political transition takes place next week, we expect the PBOC to continue using reverse repos to manage market liquidity. This means an RRR cut will be delayed further, despite the large reverse repo operations creating large swings in money market rates.
· We believe the increased interest rate volatility has made this policy tool less effective, defeating the very purpose of its use as a liquidity management tool. It also suggests this policy will need to be phased out to allow the RRR to take its place in China’s monetary policy.
· However, if capital inflows were to become large in the remainder of the year, the need to cut RRR permanently and intensely use large reverse repos will decline sharply, thus further foiling market wishes for an RRR cut this year.

Additional Details

· The headline PMI came in at 50.2 in October, 0.4pts higher than the prior month and rebounded above the benchmark of 50 for the first time since August.
· The production index rose to 52.1 from 51.3 previously.
· New orders and export orders index rose by 0.6pts and 0.5pts respectively to 50.4 and 49.3.
· Inventories of finished goods and raw materials rose slightly, up by 0.2pts and 0.3pts, to 48.1 and 47.3 respectively.
· Input prices increased by 3.3pts to 54.3, after gaining strongly by 4.9pts the previous month, reflecting the recent rebound in global commodity prices.

Implications for Markets and Policy outlook

· The official PMI figures suggest that a faster implementation of China’s fiscal program on the economy has begun to take effect. As the Chinese government has accelerated the approval of large projects since May, with preliminary investment amounting to RMB7.0trn, we believe a stronger economic rebound towards H1 2013 will take place after the leadership transition.
· As many projects have started and many will start in the following months because of an approval-to-construction lag of 3 to 6 months, we believe the current destocking process in steel and other capital goods will continue in earnest. A solid demand for commodities will resume, albeit at a gradual pace to allow destocking of finished products to complete.
· While the central bank will continue to use reverse repo operations to inject liquidity in the foreseeable future, we are still hopeful that the PBOC will resume to cutting RRR as a primary tool to inject market liquidity, while using reverse repos at the margin. As CPI inflation will likely remain below 2% in Oct, we believe that the PBOC will maintain an overall relaxed liquidity condition to support growth. However, a large capital inflow will continue to frustrate this market expectation.
  • #55,475
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:10am Nov 1, 2012 6:10am
Wondering what people's suggestions for getting the quickest announcement of RBA decision next Tuesday are? I know it's on FF calendar but am wondering if bloomberg or similar would be quicker or even if local radio stations might cover the release?

Still have my medium to long term shorts going at present and have been doing a bit of range trading long and short to try and make some money to cover funding whilst waiting for price to get decisive. Expect that to be at Tuesday's RBA.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #55,476
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:37am Nov 1, 2012 6:37am
Support at 1.0357 slight upward bias. Gold also looking at a momentum shift
  • #55,477
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:10am Nov 1, 2012 7:10am
Quoting dab
Wondering what people's suggestions for getting the quickest announcement of RBA decision next Tuesday are? I know it's on FF calendar but am wondering if bloomberg or similar would be quicker or even if local radio stations might cover the release?

Still have my medium to long term shorts going at present and have been doing a bit of range trading long and short to try and make some money to cover funding whilst waiting for price to get decisive. Expect that to be at Tuesday's RBA.
No matter how quick you get it , the algo's will beat you to it .
They can scan , evaluate and sweep the market before you've even read the 2nd word .

FX Street cover virtually everything and have an optional sound notification ; http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
Iinet (my ISP) throws in Bloomberg TV for free ; http://freezone.iinet.net.au/vod/fre.../bloomberg/712
CMC Markets also have a 'live' calender with a countdown clock on their Demo A/C - takes 30 secs to register ; http://www.cmcmarkets.com.au/sign-up
  • #55,478
  • Nov 1, 2012 9:12am Nov 1, 2012 9:12am
If AUD/USD can close this 4 hour candle above 1.04 then next mid term target will be 1.05.

AUD/JPY long positions are doing great!
  • #55,479
  • Nov 1, 2012 9:19am Nov 1, 2012 9:19am
Close to a new high from the 18th. If we break that, then 1.045 is a supply level I have marked out.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #55,480
  • Nov 1, 2012 9:22am Nov 1, 2012 9:22am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Close to a new high from the 18th. If we break that, then 1.045 is a supply level I have marked out.

It's interesting that /6A made a new high concerning the same date. The same supply level I have marked out is a little shallower on the futures side. There's also 1.05 on the futures side. Huh...
Play the players, not the cards.
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