The Really Useless Thread

hehehehehe.

http://ahmedumair.com/wp-content/upl...gh-coolman.jpg

you roll like a pimp with 600 on you?

cool breeze, bro.

still...haters gonna hate...

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.urlesque....terafrican.jpg

can i get this at wallmart?

get the 2 gallon one..it is on special today

shit-X is cheaper. Costco sells it

my lucky day

hehehehe. various potential reasons for it. olympics? queen's jubilee? the endless QE? who the heck knows...thursday is important, we get to see the PMI data...i think the PMI data for the U.K will disappoint...

and what is this story about scotland breaking away from the U.K....with alex salmond...(smikester tried explaining it to me...)apparently, scotland found oil near their shores...probably boost their scottish growth if they didnt have to share it with the rest of the U.K....also, scotland, if they secede from the U.K, they still want to keep the pound...hmmm.....

anyways, to secede or not to secede, seems dependent on the availability of 16yrs old voting in the election/decision to separate scotland from the U.K.....a referendum some opposed.

oh well....

darn ... don't have a costco nearby

of course! my black card does the rest...rich people dont carry lots of money on them...they carry platinum or black cards....

speaking of black cards....this is what my business cards look like:

http://www.luxury-insider.com/upload....jpg?width=600

http://www.bitrebels.com/wp-content/...Diamonds-1.jpg

online catalog.

never had a business card in my life...

is there an income requirement on this thread already? like... 1.000.000$/month?

Let me drop more knowledge for the USELESS......

Principles of SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

ON S/R

Like every other technical tool...s/r needs to be traded properly to be effective.

I trade S/R two ways:

#1. I trade s/r in the direction of the trend--in this specific case, i dont take my s/r lower than h4.

#2. I trade the s/r in an anti-trend direction...this is a special case and certain particular conditions need to be met....in this case, my s/r is usually weekly, monthly, sometimes, daily.

(b)Of course, i want a linear regression confluence at the point of entry too.

(c)This specific s/r has to be at previous market turning point and very fresh(never been tested). Why? S/R that happened as a result of market turning point are created through the fractionation of orders by fundamental big trading entities. They bleed into their position over days, sometimes, weeks in many cases, months. Thereby turning that region into a nice consolidation/market turning point. THERE ARE STILL FRESH ORDERS RESTING IN THAT AREA WAITING TO BE TRIGGERED. This will provide subsequent boost. Big players with long time horizon don't jam pack their orders in within seconds or hours. (Not just my trading experience, but yes, i do have analytical papers backing everything i just wrote.)

which leads to point #d.: The time range from when that s/r level was created to when it is now being tested should preferably not be more than 1 year at most and 1 month at least; 6 months for maximum efficacy. Why? Market Memory. One market trade have at least a memory of 2 weeks.(i have analytical papers for this too...yes, s/r can work up to 20 years, no doubt(i have analytical studies for this too)..but their efficacy diminished after a number of years.

If the time window is too narrow, you have a fake breakout reversing....if the time window is too large, then the fundamental factors that indicated to large fundamental traders that entering the market at that point is good value could have disappeared or rendered immaterial--which defeats the purpose of entering the market again at that level. Thereby rendering that spot less than optimal entering point again. If the fundamental reasons for entering AUD/USD at 0.9859 is no longer there, why then should fundamental trader that entered at 0.9859 before, thereby causing market turning point...why should they re-enter again at 0.9859? No reason at all. NZD/SGD at 58.00 with NZD good wool production is not the same as NZD/SGD at 58.00 with bad wool production.

this is one of the reasons why a S/R levels that look good may not work, because the fundamental reality of the market has changed. However, a pure technician may not be aware of that. Hence, it is highly recommended to pure technician: trade with the trend. Trend trading baked in fundamental info for the most part.

This issue of fundamental spoiling the show then leads us to the next question, which is: how do we avoid this apart from using trend trading?
Well, read up on fundamentals or use a proxy analysis. e.g. the indexes.
If the basket of NZD indices is at similar/same level where it was before when NZD/SGD was at 58.00, then, the relative fundamental strength is assume to the same with regards to other countries.

Market turning points? that leads us to point #E:
The market turning point needs to be at least 7 trading days of market action zone. In fact, the more trading days it takes to form the reversal == the more money it takes to bleed into the market to form that s/r zone== The better that s/r zone will be.

Which leads us to: how do we determine a good s/r zone apart from the usual suspects of requiring larger time range, requiring higher time frames formation, and requiring fundamental this or that? Are there technical formations that might tip us to a good S/R level? Yes.
(a)If your weekly s/r level that price is coming back to test look like a 1,2,3 formation on the H4. that is a good sign. (yes, i have statistical studies backing this up) Note that a 1,2,3 formation can look like a inside bar or a pinbar. Yes, candles = technical chart patterns too.
(b) If that 1,2,3 formation fits well into the concept of momentum ratio As succintly explained by entropylad. William O'Neil analyze this concept in his book although he didnt give it such a fancy name as "momentum ratio".
(c)If that 1,2,3 formation was followed by a breakout and pullback but the pullback was forced pushed away before touching the breakout point As beautifully explained by dazzdude and WMD. . That is golden.


HERE A FEW ERRORS WIDELY ATTRIBUTED TO GOOD S/R

That there are large block of orders at s/r levels. No. Point to me one serious analytical paper backing this claim up. Are there multiple orders residing there? yes. But they are fractionated. And if fundamental condition is plauribus ceteris, fundamental trader will keep their orders there still...however, their orders are fractionalized.

You dont want levels that has been tested from both sides. This will have eroded supply of orders clustering around it. The only thing that may still offer a bounce off that level is market memory. (just google market memory)

You preferably do not want that level to be proven as support or resistance previously. I know this is dogma:make sure that level was proven to be good support and resistance in the past. I am of the contrarian view. You dont want that. All that will do is eat into the cluster of orders residing there. And keep eating into it until the new direction of market orders overwhelm the ones at s/r level leading to price smashing through s/r. So, only go for untested levels for maximum efficacy.

IN A NUTSHELL:GOOD S/R LEVELS CONSIST OFF:

-- Higher time frames market turning points(not breakouts). Turning points.
-- Make sure the fundamental situation at the time of the turning point is similar to what it is now. or use proxy analysis if your fundies are weak. If the fundamentalists with enough market firepower to cause the market turning point, now see price retrace to their previous level....some of them will see that as a bargain to enter again. (that is assuming fundamental condition remains unchanged). They have much longer trading time frame horizon.
-- Which is why i prefer that S/R zone gets retested within 1month to a year. Not more or less.
-- Of course, i want the S/R zone to last at least a week in length.
-- Use confluence. I prefer linear regression analysis coinciding with the S/R
-- Make sure your WEEKLY s/r zone turns into 1,2,3 formation on H4.
-- Make sure your 1,2,3 formation has a momentum ratio to it.
-- Make sure your hook line is untested. check WMD thread.


***APART FROM MY TRADING EXPERIENCE, I CAN PRETTY MUCH BACK UP EVERYTHING WRITTEN HERE WITH ANALYTICAL STUDIES***

regards,

skynet

EUR/USD.

MY take on it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1351688148

would prefer statistical data.......

hmmmmm... so your take on it is that it is either going to go up... or its gonna go down? wow I wish I had such vivid insight...

stick around, you could gain some priceless insight