The Really Useless Thread

Howdy

dustbins today

2936 break opens downside

howdy....up early today

9H30 local time in dark Africa

at least we have a decent timezone

0330 here ... i must be crazy

oh yea crazy queen

hey i got something right

Have a good one ma queen

and you too ... cheers

looking for gbp weakness 6164/83... atm at 6161 with 6164 high

ALLYB and GATORINLA....hehahahahahaha. lolololol.


previous chart:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1351518549
UPDATE CHART:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1351664563
2ND UPDATE CHART:

now at 1:5 r/r....target is of course, 1:7 r/r.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1351758175

B is possible from here, but I am playing for scenrio A...

my offer is still on the table....

since i roll like a pimp. dont beleive me? here is my bank statement from 23rd of october, 2012.
http://thebillfold.com/wp-content/up...t-640x1189.jpg


need some funding money? just contact me at " [email protected] " .

keep it cool, keep it fly...peace out.

-skynet

good job mate..

i think i should drop some knowledge at the useless....peace out:

When people talked about edge in the market...i can only think of two things that gives me real edge for maximum gains:

#1. trade with the trend.

#2. Market misalignment. This is what i mean by market misalignment:

I am not soo much interested in racking my brain trying to use purchasing power parity, analyzing capital and trade flows, balance of payment model, interest rate differentials, asset market theory, currency substitution model, debt to gdp comparison, asset classes vs commodities vs gold, etcetera....using all that and whatnot to really crack the fundamental value of a nation. You can use all these methodologies to determine the fundamental fair value of a country/currency...but does the market gives a shite?

Dont get me wrong....i read up on these things to understand the fundamental direction....but not necessarily to ascertain the fundamental true value. why? the market can remain irrational more than you can remain solvent...and to me the it is in that disequilibrium where maximum gains are made.

For example: When the euro was appreciating against the USD in 2009 even though strings of economic problems were streaming out of the euro...and yet, the eur/usd was making new highs...is that rational? the USA have underlying structural problem, yet, the introduction of QE bullish the stock market as if that solves the toxic derivative problem of the banks. Is that rational? Look at the bullish market in the USA from 2003 to 2007...it was based on inflated bubble that has nothing concrete to it. how is that rational? How about the tech bubble? If you went short the tech stocks during that time because you made a fundamental assessment that is based on REAL VALUE...you will be raped. that is what happened to julian robertson hedge fund.

The main question i ask is this: skynet, how do you trade the irrationality of the market while cognizant of the fundamental reality? How do you exploit the perception that may create bullshit rallies from a empty fundamental well?

(a)I look for disjointment between fundamental and market action. e,g. when QE was released the USD was depreciating....and every other currencies was beating the crap out of the USD...during this time i look for currencies that least appreciate against the USD(e.g turkish lira)...when the QE is over....i will wait for the currency to break below appopriate technical levels...then i went long the crap out of it. e.g. USD/TRY

(b)When the AUD was kicking every other currencies...and the AUD performance is based on CHINA solid numbers...and soon as i started reading about empty apartment houses in china and over-heated contruction works, etc....i started looking for currencies that showed the strongest strength against AUD(that was the USD).....a currency that i can used to short the AUD...of course, i waited patiently, since the perception is that china is a beast and all is well...i didnt short aud until the china economic miracle was shown to be riddle with holes. I did not fight perception. As soon as a see topping action in the AUD/USD...i went short.

(c) When gold was moving fast and furious towards 1,900 in 2011...i look at all the other metals and commodities....platinum was the weakest....as soon as gold show a topping action...i went short platinum.

(d)In a bear market there will be relief rallies...they are generally triggered when everybody is extremely short and sentiment is at extreme and you are running into an event risk that has uncertainty to it. That is in a nutshell, how i know to be long euro when people are mostly short...and to be short when people are starting turning bullish.

(e)if commodities are up, the dollar index are down, and american stock market are up = you will expect that to be bullish for the commodity currencies...that is cool...and i am willing to trade that in a trend...however, what also interests me is when commodities are up, american stocks market is up, the dollar index is down, and yet, the commodities currencies are down...that is the kind of scenario that an variance, a misalignment.

I look for this kind of variance...disjointment in fundamental versus reality. It is that crack in the wall, where i found my maximum profits. This misalignment tends to happen when perception and irrationality dominates the fundamental true value.

thanks, boss.

you are one of the few people i deeply respect in the whole of FF...

keep up the good work...will check some of your posts at chonchy's.

peace.

-skynet

Morning, USDOLLAR still in the middle of things, still seeing 10090 as target, still holding EU shorts

USDOLLAR D1:

possible eg long .8002/.8005 with bear weakness. with a tight stop.

still waiting

piss off

here.....

gdp out of nowhere?
didn't they just sell some Olympic t-shirts?