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  • #12,021
  • Oct 31, 2012 8:39am Oct 31, 2012 8:39am
Furthermore, Aud is likely to go lower than current levels - 1.0340 is next prior to possible reversal back to 1.04
  • #12,022
  • Oct 31, 2012 10:04am Oct 31, 2012 10:04am
I expect a pullback to 1.0370/75 prior to the next leg down
  • #12,023
  • Oct 31, 2012 10:10am Oct 31, 2012 10:10am
Quoting maximmm
I expect a pullback to 1.0370/75 prior to the next leg down
it already tested and show support turns resistance on min 5/min1 chart as seen that area, before it went to 1.0355 area, but that resistance is minor and can be rejected very fast once a good bid level is found with buyers hopping in.

anyway, aud/usd have been trading tight range for days, bagged most from eur/usd movements. And where is DB haha.
  • #12,024
  • Oct 31, 2012 10:22am Oct 31, 2012 10:22am
I don't use 5 minute charts - unfortunately^^

I'm talking about one hour chart moves - a move back to 1.0370/75 is expected prior to next move down (1.0340) -

Aud will continue to trade in tight range.

Here is an interesting bit - according to the May tumble analogy, AUD is likely to make a new high before the big drop, thus a very brief move above 1.04 is likely prior to elections prior to a major drop to 0.98. I suppose that move above 1.04 will trap lots of longs - furthermore, the move higher will most likely occur either at the end of this week or the beginning of next one - just prior to elections.

DB - he is probably trying to find his laptop under all that water^^
  • #12,025
  • Oct 31, 2012 10:27am Oct 31, 2012 10:27am
Quoting maximmm
I don't use 5 minute charts - unfortunately^^

I'm talking about one hour chart moves - a move back to 1.0370/75 is expected prior to next move down (1.0340) -

Aud will continue to trade in tight range.

Here is an interesting bit - according to the May tumble analogy, AUD is likely to make a new high before the big drop, thus a very brief move above 1.04 is likely prior to elections prior to a major drop to 0.98. I suppose that move above 1.04 will trap lots of longs - furthermore, the move higher will most likely occur either at the...
anyway even if u use 1 hour chart is almost the same all u need to do is add a horizontal line on former support pin bar as that will turn resistance and pending sell limits can be added on sell on retrace for down trend [ if price go higher than previous break support, support turn resistance is not valid, u shouldn't short, if rejected nicely, its valid and continuation of downtrend], but it can be easily overlapped as trend may always change when bids/offers come in play from point to point.

Today is wednesday! X3
  • #12,026
  • Oct 31, 2012 10:38am Oct 31, 2012 10:38am
I'm also looking at waves - this wave has a lower bottom than the previous one - a bearish sign. Then again, I would not be surprised if we saw only two waves down - the range is tight, as you said - and I prefer to be conservative for that reason.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the brief move above 1.04 occurred on Friday - apparently employment numbers will be released on time after all.
  • #12,027
  • Oct 31, 2012 11:03am Oct 31, 2012 11:03am
That was a swift move back to 1.0370 - closed longs - shorting again.
  • #12,028
  • Oct 31, 2012 11:03am Oct 31, 2012 11:03am
AUD better not disappoint me^^
  • #12,029
  • Oct 31, 2012 11:06am Oct 31, 2012 11:06am
In fact, I've decided to target 1.0320 - though a move to 1.0300 is possible which will is likely to be followed by reversal thereafter (to 1.04 or slightly above).
  • #12,030
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:03pm Oct 31, 2012 1:03pm
AUD acting messy right now - I guess the end of the month flows is the explanation for this erratic movement.

NZD is the same as AUD, while euro, jpy are a bit more sane.
  • #12,031
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:08pm Oct 31, 2012 1:08pm
One thing to note is that volume is very low in the AUD crosses right now. Someone is taking advantage of that.

Last month's ADP numbers have been revised down - to nearly half of what they were. Tomorrow should be interesting.
  • #12,032
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:24pm Oct 31, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting maximmm
AUD acting messy right now - I guess the end of the month flows is the explanation for this erratic movement.

NZD is the same as AUD, while euro, jpy are a bit more sane.
X3 day, you should use basic intra day fibo so u can see price before u make an entry, if u short too early , ur not shorting on supply/resistance level, and anyway, wick or supply or even pin bar are always meant to be over lapped by price action in a matter of time.
  • #12,033
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:29pm Oct 31, 2012 1:29pm
My short is fine, thanks^^ I did not put any stops - I'm that confident in... consolidation @@ My overall bearish bias in regards to AUD puts me at ease even more.

NZD was even more erratic - fibonacci would not be of any help. A confirmation, however, is a good idea (red candle on an hourly chart from expected resistance, for example).
  • #12,034
  • Oct 31, 2012 1:31pm Oct 31, 2012 1:31pm
btw, now that DB is gone - may he rest in peace - I guess this thread belongs to us! Bwahaha!^^
  • #12,035
  • Oct 31, 2012 4:52pm Oct 31, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting maximmm
btw, now that DB is gone - may he rest in peace - I guess this thread belongs to us! Bwahaha!^^
ur target
  • #12,036
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:25pm Oct 31, 2012 5:25pm
long/short term?!
  • #12,037
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:26pm Oct 31, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting julia2011
ur target
I'll show you mine if you show me yours!^^
  • #12,038
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:35pm Oct 31, 2012 5:35pm
kinky...
someone going to get hurt real bad when daddy is home...


Quoting maximmm
I'll show you mine if you show me yours!^^
  • #12,039
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:40pm Oct 31, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting HelloOz
kinky...
someone going to get hurt real bad when daddy is home...
Daddy is much too busy to worry about such things these days, it would seem @@
  • #12,040
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:54pm Oct 31, 2012 5:54pm
lets hope he will return soon..

37 is really hard to break..

we only breached once and it quickly bounced back..


Quoting maximmm
Daddy is much too busy to worry about such things these days, it would seem @@
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