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Price Action Observations

  • #41
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:06am Oct 29, 2012 9:06am
Quoting Skynet
Methods are subject to interpretation...if you can nail it with a 1 bar pullback, excellent(perhaps, you can teach me.). My tolerant level is the 2 bar pullback.

once again, there is one setting up in GBP/AUD right now...almost there...GBP fundie is not bad(+4.1%) gdp growth...could be due to the queen's jubilee..could be due to the olympics...could be due to the QE...could be all 3...who knows...PMI comes out on thursday...of course, red-labeled news of USD, GBP, AUD, can nullify trade...especially, since entry is on 5mins...TREND IS UP, that...
I'm getting the mechanics of the entry. What I would lik to know is, is this happening on a trendig market, or, how are you choosing the setup to trade. I'm a bit lost.
Thanks for the patience
  • #42
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:16am Oct 29, 2012 9:16am
Sorry, I get it. You're zooming in to the extreme smallest pinpoint, to enter and have a tiny stop. Then you're following back on your regular trigger chart, to catch all the profits, as per your setup chart tp levels.

Is that right ?
  • #43
  • Edited 5:00pm Oct 29, 2012 4:47pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting shomari
Sorry, I get it. You're zooming in to the extreme smallest pinpoint, to enter and have a tiny stop. Then you're following back on your regular trigger chart, to catch all the profits, as per your setup chart tp levels.

Is that right ?
Hi shomari,

That's right.

It's similar in principle to how you guys roll with 'trend trading all pairs'. In that system, you:

1. Find a trend on the higher time frame
3. Await a good pull-back supported by S/R
4. Enter using BPC to catch the continuation.

Skynet is saying... is there a way I can fine tune an entry such that instead of getting a risk/reward of 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 can I get an entry that gives me 1/10, 1/15, 1/20. The way to do this is have a very small stop and fine tune the entry on the 5min chart, then use the 4hr or daily for target.

To achieve this, Skynet has found way to quality a potential entry. He is looking for a 15 min channel to run into the level where he is expecting price to turn. If there is a valid channel, then there is potential for an entry.

Skynet then looks for a break of the 15 min channel and uses the BPC technique on the 5min to enter. To further qualify the entry, he wants to see a 2 bar pull back. Once in the trade, he is using the 4hr or daily for a target.

Doing this demands a lot from price action, but then again, Skynet is demanding a lot in return. He is looking to enter a trade with 10 pips risk, but asking the market to give to, 100, 150, 200 or more pips in reward.

d
  • #44
  • Oct 29, 2012 4:56pm Oct 29, 2012 4:56pm
Skynet,

In the same way that you have a clear requirement for a 15 min channel (points 1, 2, 3 and 4), can you zoom in on a 5 min chart and show exactly your requirements for a valid 2 bar pull-back on the 5 min chart?

I would like to see clearly the candles for this construction. I think I understand, but I want to be 100% sure.

d
  • #45
  • Oct 29, 2012 5:19pm Oct 29, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting dazzdude
Hi shomari,

That's right.

It's similar in principle to how you guys roll with 'trend trading all pairs'. In that system, you:

1. Find a trend on the higher time frame
3. Await a good pull-back supported by S/R
4. Enter using BPC to catch the continuation.

Skynet is saying... is there a way I can fine tune an entry such that instead of getting a risk/reward of 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 can I get an entry that gives me 1/10, 1/15, 1/20. The way to do this is have a very small stop and fine tune the entry on the 5min chart, then use the 4hr or daily for target.

To...
that is a very succinct explanation. very good. it reminds me of your crystal clear explanation of WMD style back in 2011. i will want the pullback to be supported by confluence of TL and S/R....i trade 4 methods...i implement this 15mins/5mins bpc whenever they show up at entry zone in each 4 methods.

Quoting dazzdude
Skynet,

In the same way that you have a clear requirement for a 15 min channel (points 1, 2, 3 and 4), can you zoom in on a 5 min chart and show exactly your requirements for a valid 2 bar pull-back on the 5 min chart?

I would like to see clearly the candles for this construction. I think I understand, but I want to be 100% sure.

d
yes, i have attached a couple of charts....(p.s. i apparently miss the gbp/jpy for today...i dont know how i missed that...anyways, it would have resulted in B/E anyways, after rising by roughly r/r 1:4.

two bar pullback = 2 red candles. ; in a bearish mode(that will mean two green candles.)

charts attached:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-29_18-12_OANDA.jpg Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-29_18-06_OANDA.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-29_18-04_OANDA.jpg Size: 65 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #46
  • Oct 30, 2012 2:18am Oct 30, 2012 2:18am
Thanks Skynet.

It all makes sense. A very solid entry technique. I like it.

Final qu... I assume that both of the 5 min pull back bars need to be consecutive. Is that correct?

If you would like to share your other 3 entry technique (no problems if you do not want to or you have somewhere else), I would be keen to see them.
  • #47
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:33pm Oct 30, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting Skynet
.......
once again, there is one setting up in GBP/AUD right now...almost there............
previous chart:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1351518549

UPDATE:

i was rather engaged all day, i wasnt able to give update as it was happening...anyways...the trade is underway....and the charts below illustrated what i did.

when price slammed into that point(1.54664) i looked, like i have written, i looked for a 15mins channel..then, wait for the bpc off that channel on 5mins...

The potential r/r here is not as good as i would like...it is merely 1:7.10 r/r....i would have liked it to be 1:10 and above...but...oh well...

anyways, the trade is still underway...it hasnt even hit B/E point yet...however, since we have AUD building permits news coming out in 2 hours or so...i will move trade to B/E just to be on the safe side...hopefully, things will go well.

anyways, chart attached:

chart attached:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-30_18-05_OANDA.jpg Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-30_18-15_OANDA.jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-30_18-19_OANDA.jpg Size: 78 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #48
  • Oct 31, 2012 2:33am Oct 31, 2012 2:33am
Skynet.... u da man

The example was clear and well explained. I'd like to thank you for sharing one of your strategies. All in all, it was a comprehensive explanation and a great example of a solid trading methodology.

Regarding the break even point, you mentioned earlier that you use 2 x risk. In the preceding example, it appears you have used a daily S/R instead.

1. Do you use 2 x risk sometimes and PA at other times? Or do you always use PA?

2. At the break even point, what do you do? Do you scale out some of the trade so that if your stop is hit you break even, or do you leave the full amount on the table and move your stop to entry + spread?

thanks,
d
  • #49
  • Oct 31, 2012 2:46am Oct 31, 2012 2:46am
May i know that where u guys learn those things?from books?can teach me?
  • #50
  • Oct 31, 2012 2:49am Oct 31, 2012 2:49am
Quoting dazzdude
Skynet.... u da man

The example was clear and well explained. I'd like to thank you for sharing one of your strategies. All in all, it was a comprehensive explanation and a great example of a solid trading methodology.
thank you, sir. most humbled. i was really hoping to provide up to the minute update...but i was rather indisposed at that moment...so i came in later...
Quoting dazzdude
Regarding the break even point, you mentioned earlier that you use 2 x risk. In the preceding example, it appears you have used a daily S/R instead.

1. Do you use 2 x risk sometimes and PA at other times? Or do you always use PA?
Quoting dazzdude
2. At the break even point, what do you do? Do you scale out some of the trade so that if your stop is hit you break even, or do you leave the full amount on the table and move your stop to entry + spread?

thanks,
d
i tried providing the answer here. hopefully, it is clear:
Quoting Skynet
.......
#6. BREAKEVEN CONDITIONS: depends on you, my preference: when price is 2x my risk or price is running into some h4 s/r. you can sell 1/2 or move SL to entry point...which ever one you like.......
it is basically, which ever one comes first. as you can see, the h4 s/r level stopped price action here for gbp/jpy. ) (obviously, h4 is within daily. so if we respect h4, we have to respect daily.)
i prefer setups that are more optimal than this gbp/aud(in the sense that, setups that DO NOT have closeby interfering s/r of either h4 or daily in the way.)
how you choose to manage the BE point is up to individual taste and preference.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #51
  • Oct 31, 2012 3:07am Oct 31, 2012 3:07am
Quoting dazzdude
Thanks Skynet.

It all makes sense. A very solid entry technique. I like it.

Final qu... I assume that both of the 5 min pull back bars need to be consecutive. Is that correct?
yes. to be on the safe side. at least two consecutive pullback bars.

Quoting dazzdude
If you would like to share your other 3 entry technique (no problems if you do not want to or you have somewhere else), I would be keen to see them.
thank you, sir. i am most flattered. when i have enough time/energy. i will. most appreciative.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #52
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:23am Nov 1, 2012 5:23am
Thanks again Skynet.

Your structured approach to trading is exceptional. I imagine you as someone with not only a high level of trading skill and knowledge, but someone with the disciple to follow a plan. I think that is one of the things that separate the great from the good.

Looking forward to understanding your other methods. No rush. I am not going anywhere. I know it will be worth the wait.

d
  • #53
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:33am Nov 1, 2012 5:33am
Quoting Skynet
....and the charts below illustrated what i did.

when price slammed into that point(1.54664) i looked, like i have written, i looked for a 15mins channel..then, wait for the bpc off that channel on 5mins...

The potential r/r here is not as good as i would like...it is merely 1:7.10 r/r....i would have liked it to be 1:10 and above...but...oh well...

:

UPDATE: gbp/aud...price is now at 5 times RISK...5R...obviously...we are waiting for 7R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-01_04-16_OANDA.jpg Size: 94 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #54
  • Nov 1, 2012 5:37am Nov 1, 2012 5:37am
Quoting eitherone
May i know that where u guys learn those things?from books?can teach me?

that question is best reserved for WMD and DAZZDUDE. they are the masters of price action.

just sign up for will's course already. or take the classic hector 3sma course, and be done with it. hehehe.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #55
  • Edited 4:39pm Nov 1, 2012 5:47am | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting eitherone
May i know that where u guys learn those things?from books?can teach me?
Hi eitherone,

It's comes from many sources over many years. I can point you in the right direction, yes.

But, it depends on what you want to learn? Where are you at with your trading? Are you looking to scalp, swing trade, position trade, etc?

If you are looking for method the trade, Skynet has given you a complete system right here, for free. It's as good as you find anywhere and has probably taken Skynet years of experience to put together something which on the surface may appear quite easy, but it has every ingredient to make a wonderful system.

If you just traded this one set up, I am sure you would do very well. So that is something you can try.

If I was to give a new starter one piece of advice, it would be to learn about demand (support ) and supply (resistance). I would suggest looking at Sam Siedens videos as a starting point as he has free videos that serve as a great intro. From there, the best free source I have found is ace gazette.

If you are willing to pay for a mentor (I have invested in books, courses, in-class room training, mentors, etc), the best mentor I have found is wmd. You will find him here at FF, you can pm im. Wmd was able to take my understanding price action to a whole new level and the investment has paid off in spades.

I hope that helps.

d
  • #56
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:12am Nov 1, 2012 6:12am
Quoting Skynet
that question is best reserved for WMD and DAZZDUDE. they are the masters of price action.

just sign up for will's course already. or take the classic hector 3sma course, and be done with it. hehehe.
If you want to learn about price action, Will is a good source.

If you want to learn a good system, I would second the comment about hectors course. I have not taken it, but have looked into enough to know it's solid and the people who trade it do well.

Also check out ace gazzette.

Gee, if only someone gave me that advice ten years ago... would have saved me a lot of time and money.

d
  • #57
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:13am Nov 1, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Skynet
UPDATE: gbp/aud...price is now at 5 times RISK...5R...obviously...we are waiting for 7R.
  • #58
  • Nov 1, 2012 6:22am Nov 1, 2012 6:22am
Just adding this link in case I ever want to find this.... I have no intentions of continuing the thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=266655
  • #59
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:40pm Nov 1, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting Skynet
of course, i dont want any interference from USD, GBP, or AUD red-labeled news.
oh welll....there happens to be interference from USD red labeled news...the ADP news hit with solid numbers at 8:30am EST...that created a risk on environment for the comm dolls...demolishing the rally in the GBP/AUD...it didnt help that the GBP pmi numbers also sucked(although that was expected.) . Obviously, GBP/AUD is a synthetic of GBP/USD x 1(AUD/USD) = 1.61205 X (1/1.04062) = 1.54912 = current price of GBP/AUD.

***there was a similar trade in GBP/SGD that worked perfectly, the problem is that price didnt retraced all the way to area of confluence before rallying up. charts also attached***
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-01_20-07_OANDA.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-01_20-14_OANDA.jpg Size: 94 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #60
  • Nov 1, 2012 7:47pm Nov 1, 2012 7:47pm
ethereone, listen to DAZZDUDE, he is the man. really, he is the man.

mr. dazzdude, thanks for all the kind words...i am most flattered. i learn a lot from reading your posts on price action...and who could ever forget your calls on the USDx...especially, in nailing the bottom in the EURUSD...not just the use of the COTs....

much respect, sir.

--skynet
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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