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  • #55,301
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:44pm Oct 30, 2012 10:44pm
Oh I have been bearish for some time since i created the thread below and when i added at Rate cut, near the bottom of the recent lower range, and 1.04, 1.0410

Now comes the wait game before RBA
  • #55,302
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:46pm Oct 30, 2012 10:46pm
currently sitting at 57.70. until it goes to 30 no reason to change the stance of bearishness
  • #55,303
  • Edited 11:09pm Oct 30, 2012 10:46pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting Nachiket
there is no reason for being bullish. hedge funds can still short it.
This is true, but they can also long it. You are not saying why they will short it...

I posted a few days ago statistics about 4th quarters being more bullish 24 of the last 30 years with an average gain of almost 8% during the 4th quarter.

You say there is no reason for being bullish, but why are you bearish? Fundamentals reasons? Technical reasons?
  • #55,304
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:47pm Oct 30, 2012 10:47pm
Quoting sidhujag
well there is some truth here. i wonder
if there is a study to see after how long the cb starts barking to they generally pull the trigger. Boj Snb Rba are in the same boat. Rba just started barking loudly now. Obviously its at the first stage verbal intervention and that only causes retraces.
The rba have never expressed any mention of intervention in its minutes or statements. Its has always been financial articles from third parties just like in August.
  • #55,305
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm
Here are your Catalyst.

*Iron ore/Cooking Coal Prices
*Rating agencies and their rating reviews(negative watch on some) for Aussie Cities
*Port Inventories
*China Reverse Rep Operations and the funneling of the recent Stimulus
*AuD Cities cash shortfalls
*Mining/Retail/Development Revenues and the Tax collections to the Gov
*RBA/Treas Statements,Operations
and the list continues

Some are still in favor for the bears.
  • #55,306
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting Iro
The rba have never expressed any mention of intervention in its minutes or statements. Its has always been financial articles from third parties just like in August.
you clearly havent been reading the news lately... at the RBA monetary policy minutes, they did not discard the idea that the october rate cut is one of a series of rate cuts to come... so tehres a chance we see a rate cut....
However good data out of AUD has sort of diluted the vision...

but you do get members of the RBA coming out now and then saying the AUD is too strong and its hurting their exports... and their Iron ore Mining activity/ projects are being hampened....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,307
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm Oct 30, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting Nachiket
china is not at all the catalyst. look at the china releases and see where it goes 2 days after the release. it almost stays where it was
If China is not at all the catalyst then why did you say it in the post before this one???????

Flip - Flop / Up - Down / Yes - No

Or maybe you mean China data could be catalyst for bearish but not a catalyst for bullish movement? Now it makes sense...

Quoting Nachiket
may be china will be the catalyst for the fall or it does not fall.
  • #55,308
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:50pm Oct 30, 2012 10:50pm
Quoting jplazard
Oh I have been bearish for some time since i created the thread below and when i added at Rate cut, near the bottom of the recent lower range, and 1.04, 1.0410

Now comes the wait game before RBA
good to know you and i are long term bears... but im probably stupid to have loaded early shorts at 1.0250 and 1.03 areas...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,309
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:53pm Oct 30, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
good to know you and i are long term bears... but im probably stupid to have loaded early shorts at 1.0250 and 1.03 areas...
well i see it coming back to 1.03 today itself
  • #55,310
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:54pm Oct 30, 2012 10:54pm
If we close on the Daily from the recent hi/lo 1.06238-1.0149 50% retrace 1.0386 than that would be cause for more concern on Bears. The last wall of defense as I mentioned many times for fib confluence is at 1.0435 after that its pretty much over for bears until the 1.05-1.06 area
  • #55,311
  • Oct 30, 2012 10:56pm Oct 30, 2012 10:56pm
Retest
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #55,312
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm Oct 30, 2012 11:00pm
lets hope it go below 1.03700
  • #55,313
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:02pm Oct 30, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting bogus
Retest
me say testing top of the range.... looking for a rejection at this top.... for potential to make it all the way back down...
Problem is i dont know what sort of Fundies are coming out to drive this down... i dont know if its going to be a data related move or Pure Flow Move...
note that EMA55 is now above EMA200 and that usually is sign of a bearish beginning.....
Note that when EMA55 was BELOW EMA200 did the AUDUSD moved up... Now its vice versa....
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,314
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:04pm Oct 30, 2012 11:04pm
I'm bearish on /DX, but /6A is giving me a bullish impression. Could it be that there won't be a cut next week, but there will be one the month after? I can see /6A going to close 1.05.

I can see Aud/Usd going up to 1.045 and 1.057. I could be wrong about my "hill" posts from earlier this month.

Roughly the same highs while the lows are obviously getting higher.

4H /6A
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #55,315
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:07pm Oct 30, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I'm bearish on /DX, but /6A is giving me a bullish impression. Could it be that there won't be a cut next week, but there will be one the month after? I can see /6A going to close 1.05.

I can see Aud/Usd going up to 1.045 and 1.057. I could be wrong about my "hill" posts from earlier this month.

Roughly the same highs while the lows are obviously getting higher.

4H /6A
you maybe right about no rate cut next week but i think the rally we had has already priced in this fact so the Risk is, if they ACTUALLY cut... the AUDUSD will fall fast....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,316
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:08pm Oct 30, 2012 11:08pm
My target for AUD is 1.05 - 1.058 during the next few weeks. as this is where the Weekly down trend intersects.

At that point is where I will look to short AUD for the long term. Obviously I will assess where markets sentiment at that time for entry point.
  • #55,317
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:11pm Oct 30, 2012 11:11pm
Both Dollar and to a lesser extent (since cut) AUD are range bound.
NY opening will be interesting dollar could come down a bit more but it might have a less affect on AUD/USD unless /6A breaks heavy on this upper confluence
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  • #55,318
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:11pm Oct 30, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
My target for AUD is 1.05 - 1.058 during the next few weeks. as this is where the Weekly down trend intersects.

At that point is where I will look to short AUD for the long term. Obviously I will assess where markets sentiment at that time for entry point.
pretty sound
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,319
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:44pm Oct 30, 2012 11:44pm
When everyone's thinking chinese economy is growing and thats good news to the australians...
China maybe falling in a debt, China the next Europe?? maybe? maybe not one thing i know is that China can Print Print Print as oppose to Europ who were reluctant...
But still not a good sign for China's Trading Partners....


have a look at this link.... Forexlive found an interesting article on FT
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...of-china-woes/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,320
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:58pm Oct 30, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting fxtyrant
When everyone's thinking chinese economy is growing and thats good news to the australians...
China maybe falling in a debt, China the next Europe?? maybe? maybe not one thing i know is that China can Print Print Print as oppose to Europ who were reluctant...
But still not a good sign for China's Trading Partners....


have a look at this link.... Forexlive found an interesting article on FT
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...of-china-woes/

how abt a gbp/usd short now bguguen
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