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  • #12,001
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:01pm Oct 30, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting maximmm
I would not be surprised if this triangle held the price until the elections.
NZD is higher due to positive data.. I guess AUD will push it more higher as low's said AUD is not overvalued... so fasten seat belt.. it will fly high in case no major bad news..
  • #12,002
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:11pm Oct 30, 2012 7:11pm
Buy high, sell low or more ranging.
The range market and buy high market is nearer.

As the selling point is quite far away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily chart.png Size: 21 KB
  • #12,003
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:25pm Oct 30, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
NZD is higher due to positive data.. I guess AUD will push it more higher as low's said AUD is not overvalued... so fasten seat belt.. it will fly high in case no major bad news..
When he said that it was overvalued, aud kept going higher - I would pay no attention to him. I don't think intervention is in the cards, but lower interest rate IS. Besides, AUD has some date coming in as well, that will give further clues as to where aud will go.

Finally - I do think that the biggest catalyst for the next move will be in the form of US elections - so I do not expect any extreme moves until then.
  • #12,004
  • Oct 30, 2012 7:53pm Oct 30, 2012 7:53pm
fudge
  • #12,005
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:19pm Oct 30, 2012 8:19pm
If price can sustained above yesterday high, 1.0382 area, it's a bad news for the bear making yesterday high as resistance turn support for next leg up, next area 1.0382-1.0405. Break 1.0405 = breakout to upside again likely.

Contained below 1.0382, more range from 1.0360-1.0390 before frankfurt.
  • #12,006
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:30pm Oct 30, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting 5percent
Buy high, sell low or more ranging.
The range market and buy high market is nearer.

As the selling point is quite far away.
your chart is almost irrelevant considering most retail traders don't hold positions in months.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,007
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:33pm Oct 30, 2012 8:33pm
breach of 1.04 does not bode well for the bears^^
  • #12,008
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:34pm Oct 30, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting Davit
your chart is almost irrelevant considering most retail traders don't hold positions in months.
Regards
that's not an intra-day chart, that's a chart to warn that break out to upside may happen soon if crosses, ,apparently you couldn't interpret what i want to deliver.
  • #12,009
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:35pm Oct 30, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting maximmm
breach of 1.04 does not bode well for the bears^^
Thurs farm employment News.Expect massive sell out before that.And if numbers are positives (I suspect so)expect bull slaughter
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,010
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:36pm Oct 30, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Davit
your chart is almost irrelevant considering most retail traders don't hold positions in months.
Regards
I think his chart is fine

If you don't look at the big time charts, you really don't see the whole picture. Of course.... I prefer trend/resistance/support lines over rectangles^^
  • #12,011
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:38pm Oct 30, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting Davit
Thurs farm employment News.Expect massive sell out before that.And if numbers are positives (I suspect so)expect bull slaughter
positive numbers will cause aud to drop, you think?

Anyways, as I've said earlier - I don't see much of slaughter or major rises prior to elections. Yet, if it happens, I'll be very surprised.

I anticipate range between 1.04 and 1.03 until elections ... err... unless 1.04 gets breached^^

At the same time, just after the elections, I anticipate major trending moves - presumably to the downside (0.98 handle)
  • #12,012
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:38pm Oct 30, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting 5percent
that's not an intra-day chart, that's a chart to warn that break out to upside may happen soon if crosses, ,apparently you couldn't interpret what i want to deliver.
Don't take this a wrong way but I look at overall picture instead of your blue and red lines including ridiculous arrows.
Its not hard seeing S/R levels but trading is much more then that.
4hr chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 22 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,013
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:47pm Oct 30, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting Davit
Don't take this a wrong way but I look at overall picture instead of your blue and red lines including ridiculous arrows.
Its not hard seeing S/R levels but trading is much more then that.
ignore the indicators then . That's turtle indicator. I am not providing an intra-day outlook so there no need for me to show supply/resistance on the daily chart from here, if u want supply do it on 1.06 instead of 1.04 area. You want to show what you want to show, i want to show what i want to show. Is there a big problem? If your doing 4hour, so be it, apparently, i am showing a daily chart.


But i find it funny that, everyone have their own views and opinions or what they want to deliver. Why must my chart be something similar to everyone? Why would i want to deliver so many lines and trendlines, what's there to show? i am a good chartists?

The point is simple, FIBO and BOXES is all i want to share . That's the general outlook for buyers and sellers in a neutral position i don't recommend selling or buying over here, nor is biased in telling selling is going to happen just because i may have a selling position

S/R Are basics and too many retail traders failed at this level thinking that S/R will stands and they end up building their sell on supply buy on support, generally yes may happen and likely to happen, but fundamentally no.

So yesterday's R was 1.0382 area? and earlier R was 1.0375, so what is R NOW? R is S Now , until it breaches and gained back territorial control. Limits are against trend, stops are likely to move with trend, break 1.0405 and its gg up. Meanwhile, we are still in a range.

Blue box is the current range we have been trading, breaking below blue box's demand pin on 1.0150 will likely to send a breakout to the down side from happening. Which shows the red box as selling zone.

Green box is, trading back to former top, as selling point failed to hold.

If you want an intra-day basis, the buyer would pick up the buy stop on 1.0375 earlier for a healthy 15 pips take profit within 1hour and less, and exit his position/takes partial or move to break even, that is if he has not have a position before the data, which is a fundamental trade. on mini boxes buy resistance sell support breakout.
  • #12,014
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:51pm Oct 30, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting 5percent
ignore the indicators then . That's turtle indicator. I am not providing an intra-day outlook so there no need for me to show supply/resistance on the daily chart from here, if u want supply do it on 1.06 instead of 1.04 area. You want to show what you want to show, i want to show what i want to show. Is there a big problem? If your doing 4hour, so be it, apparently, i am showing a daily chart.


But i find it funny that, everyone have their own views and opinions or what they want to deliver. Why must my chart be something similar to everyone?...
Good post peace
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,015
  • Oct 30, 2012 8:53pm Oct 30, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting Davit
Good post peace

peace . thanks
  • #12,016
  • Oct 30, 2012 9:00pm Oct 30, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting Davit
Don't take this a wrong way but I look at overall picture instead of your blue and red lines including ridiculous arrows.
Its not hard seeing S/R levels but trading is much more then that.
4hr chart
Yes Failure to break 1.0400/10 will bring down to 1.0360 first then 1.0325

though it is slightly bullish at this moment.
Intraday only.
  • #12,017
  • Oct 30, 2012 9:02pm Oct 30, 2012 9:02pm
now this 2 is an intra-day outlook on a even sharper point of view.

But this was only valid earlier during japan hours.

Every market hours is different, depending on " LIVE MARKET RATES" where price is currently at.

Buy because prices want to go up, sell because price wants to go down, this way positions are closed much faster and not against trend.

Risk are limited as well.

Trading involves calculation of risk and probability of success and failure, if a trade do not work out, it's better to get stop out and get into a new one. I trade on many patterns and rules, so the chart below is a pattern i respect, there are many patterns as well .

I won't reveal further,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uptrend view.png Size: 25 KB
  • #12,018
  • Oct 30, 2012 9:03pm Oct 30, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting 5percent
peace . thanks
Here is how I see the markets.Confluence of lot of factors including what is coming up.
Thurs farm news, which means unlikely to have sustain UP move without having Euro move along side.
No major moves until Thurs Nov1st.Which means ranging markets until then.
I am short in 3 positions and may add more if PA reaches 40.
Numbers that came out were not significant on AU to cause huge move prior to Nov 1st.
I generally close positions by end of the day.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #12,019
  • Edited 9:37pm Oct 30, 2012 9:19pm | Edited 9:37pm
for the benefit for traders who wants to learn how to trade breakout or news.


now seeing the boxes color, does it resemble closely to my daily chart? i just want to give a warning, if it may happen. of course there are chances it won't! but it's just a pattern to be taken note of. And trend line is generally good for building position on add on retracement on following a trend with very very small stop, because why would one build a position on trendline if it is not going to work.

Cracking 1.04, and over lapping 1.06 if happen, have a projected target of 1.08 our yearly high. Calculation is done from break out point and consolidated zone/boxes, don't ask me how i do it, but lets see if price over lapse 1.06 i wont short until 1.08 at least.

The market moves in trend, buy high sell low only work in range/consolidated zone. Out of Zone, you are nursing a trade, and hoping it to turn back. I am sure eur/usd traders from august and sept definitely do learn something about breakout ?

Let me share a last picture

Quote
a quote " It's either we have a trade that has a high probability that it's going to be a winner, we will let the profit run. Or we killed a trade faster to cut our losers short. Don't ever attempt to counter-trend a trade after a breakout is identified. Buy because the price wants to go up, sell because the price wants to go down. Learn to buy higher, and sell lower only with certain conditions. "


out
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fundamental.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd breakout.png Size: 33 KB
  • #12,020
  • Oct 31, 2012 8:31am Oct 31, 2012 8:31am
AUD is looking quite bearish as of now. I still think that 1.03 will hold and 1.04 may still be in the cards prior to the elections.

In the meantime, DB is nowhere to be found!
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