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  • #55,161
  • Oct 29, 2012 5:13pm Oct 29, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
OK. I apologize Tyrant... I won't talk about things I don't understand. Thanks for correcting me buddy.
No no, you understand a bit like i do... But like me we cannot truly grasp the movement of market sentiment...

But id like to ask you as a food for thought looking at the monthly and weekly position chart...
Now that the net position are in the short, what do you think will happen if this short from retail gets cut and moves back to net long, i want to know if audusd is gona fall or rise when net shorts get cut back to neutral then going to net long??

Testing your observation here
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #55,162
  • Oct 29, 2012 5:54pm Oct 29, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Well then 60% and 40% are the "extremes" for this particular currency pair and that is when the most divergence between open positions and market price occurs. So we are now moving to the "extreme" low for long positions which, history tells us, is when market price tends to move up.

Hope that makes sense...

Yup it makes sense... in general the market will make an important top or bottom when spec and retailers are at long/short position extreme's... CHF had them before the intervention and JPY has one.. although it was fallin off a little bit since its recent rise which is expected.

It is good to wait for these extreme's then get in on a divergence.

An extreme low based on your observation would mean a STRONG move up... so if it just drags along then I wouldn't put too much weight into that observation but if its a strong move usually followed by some news it means something.
  • #55,163
  • Oct 29, 2012 8:27pm Oct 29, 2012 8:27pm
Reports now that the PBOC are to inject a combined CNY 395bln in 7day & 28day reverse repo's...here we go again!
  • #55,164
  • Oct 29, 2012 8:46pm Oct 29, 2012 8:46pm
The thing is, we are not at extreme levels - in fact, most pairs are currently in neutral positions, as far as sentiment goes. This is due to the fact that most pairs are currently in consolidation -
As soon as elections end, then you can start using sentiment as an indicator.
Right now, sentiment will change on daily basis, due to most pairs being in consolidation zone.
  • #55,165
  • Oct 29, 2012 8:54pm Oct 29, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting jplazard
Reports now that the PBOC are to inject a combined CNY 395bln in 7day & 28day reverse repo's...here we go again!
I did a little digging and it looks like they have been doing this every week or so for over 3 months straight. This one is a little bigger than previous ones, but it is something they keep doing...

Probably won't affect AUD as it seems to happen quite often.

What are your thoughts?

http://csf-load-balancer-1203984728....html?tag_id=17
  • #55,166
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:18pm Oct 29, 2012 9:18pm
Hello aussi people,
hope u r doing well. Just wake up in the middle of the night to check the monthly monetary policy report of the BOJ and still nothing. zzzzzzzz !
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,167
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:19pm Oct 29, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting maximinus
Hello aussi people,
hope u r doing well. Just wake up in the middle of the night to check the monthly monetary policy report of the BOJ and still nothing. zzzzzzzz !
Do you know where can check the status of the report?
  • #55,168
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:21pm Oct 29, 2012 9:21pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Do you know where can check the status of the report?
The last time I caught it right here in FF. It's only 2 pages fax.
If I catch it again, of course I'll send by PM a copy, don't worry. trade well.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,169
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:23pm Oct 29, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting maximinus
The last time I caught it right here in FF. It's only 2 pages fax.
If I catch it again, of course I'll send by PM a copy, don't worry. trade well.
Cool. Thanks Maximinus!
  • #55,170
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:23pm Oct 29, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Cool. Thanks Maximinus!
Welcome !
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,171
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:29pm Oct 29, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting maximinus
Hello traders and mates,
I know that I am annoying everyone here with my posts related to "money and trade management", I'm sorry for that. If any one request me to stop, I'll do, no problem, and I'll not take it personnaly.
I found that we have a lot of readings in internet, in how to not lose money in FX, MM is the key, cut your loss etc... I agree, this part represent 99% of the work we have to do for enduring in this business. But I believe that the core part of this business is missing. That's always the 1% work that makes the difference...
Not sure if you saw my previous post replying to you:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6133991#post6133991
hopefully that addresses some of your questions.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #55,172
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:30pm Oct 29, 2012 9:30pm
It has consolidated, the full yesterday. Right in the middle of the fan, may be the time to move higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,173
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:33pm Oct 29, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting dab
Not sure if you saw my previous post replying to you:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6133991#post6133991
hopefully that addresses some of your questions.
Hi Dab,
the futur "Redactor in Chief' of "Australian Bear Raid" how are you ?
I missed it in the middle of one of the daily controversy that we in the thread have the secret. Sorry mate.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,174
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:37pm Oct 29, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting maximinus
Hi Dab,
the futur "Redactor in Chief' of "Australian Bear Raid" how are you ?
I missed it in the middle of one of the daily controversy that we in the thread have the secret. Sorry mate.
I'm good and no need to apologise. Not sure what "redactor in chief" means but I have a LONG way to go (much learning) to even get close to JP's level!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #55,175
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:41pm Oct 29, 2012 9:41pm
Quoting dab
Another suggestion would be that if you know the target (based on average range for session) for a trade when you open it than set a limit so that the trade is automatically closed at your pre determined profit level.
It seems that you with 100pips agree that I must enter an exit order, btw, I'll have no temptation of looking for more and finally giving back some % of profit to the market.
But have you seen why I don't always close when we get near the average range ?
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,176
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:45pm Oct 29, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting keiichi2
Hey all

Im fairly new to trading and dont understand all of the terminology just yet so please be patient with me

Ive bought at 1.0363 with a SL rate at 1.0320 and a TP rate at 1.0395.

Obviously its pretty close to my SL rate right now, so Im wondering weather i should just close now and minimize my loss or just stick it out?
Welcome keiichi2! Ask yourself what has changed since you entered the trade? What did you base your trade on? Answering these questions will help you make your decision.

Personally I look at longer term charts eg daily and see that price has not made higher high or lower low since 8th October and therefore say it's been consolidating since then. In a consolidating market it can take less to change direction as supply and demand are closer together but big players are still trying to make some money. Therefore things could easily head back to 360s or 370s for you to make a small profit. I would suggest 395 is not a good target as it's too close to the last high. When price is approaching that level again, if still in consolidation mode, it's likely to turn a bit short. If broken out of consolodation mode than 395 is likely to be too low a target. Look at calendar for events that could break price action out of consolidation mode eg US elections, RBA rate decision. Good luck!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #55,177
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:47pm Oct 29, 2012 9:47pm
This is my aussie view, if i make mistake, plz comment..^^
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  • #55,178
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:47pm Oct 29, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting dab
I'm good and no need to apologise. Not sure what "redactor in chief" means but I have a LONG way to go (much learning) to even get close to JP's level!
Of course we have a Long way to go , but don't tell it to JPL.
Of course he is doing great job, but again don't tell him
The job is quiet cool : the boss (JPL) work hard, you just have a to look before he publishes. You have to do some little corrections, even if it does'nt need any correction. That's all, you are redactor in chief of the Australian Bear raid. Is'nt it cool ?
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #55,179
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:51pm Oct 29, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting maximinus
Of course we have a Long way to go , but don't tell it to JPL.
Of course he is doing great job, but again don't tell him
The job is quiet cool : the boss (JPL) work hard, you just have a to look before he publishes. You have to do some little corrections, even if it does'nt need any correction. That's all, you are redactor in chief of the Australian Bear raid. Is'nt it cool ?
That would be cool! (I'll ignore that it would be helpful if I knew enough to understand everything he says to be able to edit it though!)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #55,180
  • Oct 29, 2012 9:52pm Oct 29, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting maximinus
It seems that you with 100pips agree that I must enter an exit order, btw, I'll have no temptation of looking for more and finally giving back some % of profit to the market.
But have you seen why I don't always close when we get near the average range ?
I'm assuming you are referring to your reference about change in trading strategy, your bandit trading strategy vs romantic trade management. It was for these reasons I suggested you prove to yourself which works better by using both and monitoring the results.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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