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  • #54,841
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:56pm Oct 25, 2012 6:56pm
Quoting Iro
I have to say this is an interesting theory, though I disagree with it completely. There are currencies devalued even more than the Chinese Yuan, why was it they did not have the same miracle growth? Chinese, or Korean, or Japanese growth in the 1980's were the result of people working 10 hours or more a day, 6 or more days a week. And they save and invest. More than 100 countries peg their currencies to the US$, very few if any had the same growth as China. Want growth? Save and invest. Devaluation without hard work only reduce your standard of...
Its hard to explain in a short post.. but this is the interest rate bottom (it is a cycle) soon market will start pricing in rises in rates... and FED can't do much more printing without totalling ruining market confidence... so if market is to even exist it must exist under itself and not without fed help... so if that premis is true then global growth (jobs, real estate) must grow in order for us to grow out of the economy. I'm kind of assuming this because if it doesn't who knows what black hole we fall into.. i'm hedging my thoughts so that if im right then that is the only thing that makes sense (the free money era is over).... if im wrong then your money is worthless anyway. Top hedge fund superstars are retiring in record numbers... the game is changing and cycle's continue.

Export based economy? The idea remains but the name will change... computer AI/Scientific/Technological breakthroughs give US a leading edge across multi sectors of the economy. They will supply the world with ideas/gadgets/service.. After the crash Obama realized we need to become less reliant on others... global growth grew too much too fast because of this reliance. exports grew to 14% of US GDP and it is going up.

What does export-driven USA mean?

Please read: http://www.the-american-interest.com...cfm?piece=1227

Caption: "The vision I’m painting isn’t around the corner, but, barring global catastrophe, it stands a good chance of arriving over the next two decades. We can think of exports as one path out of what my 2011 book called “The Great Stagnation”, referring to the slowdown in economic growth and living standards in the United States."
  • #54,842
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:59pm Oct 25, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting fxtyrant
You are right.... The deeper gold gets the stronger coil gets.... BUT like i said.... i read the charts and my technical analysis... and historically speaking whenever Price is above 55 ema and 55 ema above daily.... its time to go Short form wherever price is back to 55 EMA. simple... and IF we break below (which we did in gold) that 55 ema and stays below (which we had a rejection today when 55EMA is at 1715, then our next target is the 200 EMA.....

It doesnt matter how many time you keep telling yourself that YEs yes... the coil is gona...
If it goes to 1660 NOW without going to 1747/1757 trapped buyers then the bottom is going to come sooner... if it goes up then comes down then new sellers are pushing it lower instead of buyers accumulating positions. If it does go up to my target... it means a lower target overall before continuation... I'm just posting what I see and there are ppl trapped there so if we do go there then I expect your 1550/1500 numbers otherwise I dont.
  • #54,843
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:05pm Oct 25, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting sidhujag
Its hard to explain in a short post.. but this is the interest rate bottom (it is a cycle) soon market will start pricing in rises in rates... and FED can't do much more printing without totalling ruining market confidence... so if market is to even exist it must exist under itself and not without fed help... so if that premis is true then global growth (jobs, real estate) must grow in order for us to grow out of the economy. I'm kind of assuming this because if it doesn't who knows what black hole we fall into.. i'm hedging my thoughts so that...
i think IRO is gona find it difficult to justify the reason why if China is growing at 7.9% is the Shanghai composite index showing negative growth for the past 5 years... of over 50%, while the this year to date is again in -4.4% region....
lets face it... if the economy is growing.... the Companies and industries will have to GROW with it... but boy oh boy do i not see that.... GDP figures can be cooked up... but Stock Indices like the China ones.. cant as demand and supply

Im not the only one talking about this....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/9111...sic-value-trap

From the Article: "China's GDP growth does not translate into Chinese share performance as China's state-dominated and investment-led GDP growth policy continues squeezing the Chinese corporate sector's profitability, causing a decoupling in share price performance relative to China's GDP growth."
Now i wonder if this sentence rings any bell.... State-Dominated... Hmmmmm and iro has the guts to say the chinese economy isnt manipulated... WOW....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,844
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:07pm Oct 25, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting Arkv
320 looked like decent hourly support if we had a pullback yesterday, but looking very tenuous now. Next is 290-300. Where do you guys see it bottoming out today?
I only started with AUD/USD recently.
But let's hope it will not bottom out before 1.02755, I have put a (first) target just 5 pips above that.

But I would say 1.030x would be a high probability for a small bounce as well, maybe nice for a scalp.

1.0329 - 1.0323 could be a bumpy/ranging area as well. But at the moment I don't think it will hold if 1.0337 will give way. (need a couple H1/M30 bar closes below for confirmation)
  • #54,845
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:08pm Oct 25, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting sidhujag
If it goes to 1660 NOW without going to 1747/1757 trapped buyers then the bottom is going to come sooner... if it goes up then comes down then new sellers are pushing it lower instead of buyers accumulating positions. If it does go up to my target... it means a lower target overall before continuation... I'm just posting what I see and there are ppl trapped there so if we do go there then I expect your 1550/1500 numbers otherwise I dont.
nah dude... 1550 is just a big bluff.... its an imaginary number based out of nothing... but im saying....
on this move down... in gold and a rejection of the EMA55 we had yesterday further proves Gold is headed for the EMA200... Now im not gona say where Gold is gona do when it reaches EMA 200, and i will expect some reaction no doubt... but for the mean time im short till EMA 200...
EMA 200 is also Confluenced by major support at 1640 and EMA55 at 1655
so 166x is just my first line in the sand....
Update... after i posted this i plotted a trendline from the bottom up... seems like we may have a trendline support at 1690... hmmm....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,846
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:18pm Oct 25, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting fxtyrant
nah dude... 1550 is just a big bluff.... its an imaginary number based out of nothing... but im saying....
on this move down... in gold and a rejection of the EMA55 we had yesterday further proves Gold is headed for the EMA200... Now im not gona say where Gold is gona do when it reaches EMA 200, and i will expect some reaction no doubt... but for the mean time im short till EMA 200...
EMA 200 is also Confluenced by major support at 1640 and EMA55 at 1655
so 166x is just my first line in the sand....
Update... after i posted this i plotted a...
i g ot 1687 only if this low gives like i said u should be trying at every bear target dont know where it stops
  • #54,847
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:33pm Oct 25, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting sidhujag
i g ot 1687 only if this low gives like i said u should be trying at every bear target dont know where it stops
whats ur take on the chiense economy? i think Iro just dug himself a grave by saying China government is not manipulating the economy or cooking up figures....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,848
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
whats ur take on the chiense economy? i think Iro just dug himself a grave by saying China government is not manipulating the economy or cooking up figures....
lets make no mistakes their economy is huge look at the numbers their intake of lumber commodities etc is as high as any but its not sustainable and im not sure they would be truthful if they saw an endgame. They were fighhting based on the art of war but the rug got pulled out under. Can the student surpass the teacher? not while the us is still the teacher.
  • #54,849
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm Oct 25, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting Iro
I have to say this is an interesting theory, though I disagree with it completely. There are currencies devalued even more than the Chinese Yuan, why was it they did not have the same miracle growth? Chinese, or Korean, or Japanese growth in the 1980's were the result of people working 10 hours or more a day, 6 or more days a week. And they save and invest. More than 100 countries peg their currencies to the US$, very few if any had the same growth as China. Want growth? Save and invest. Devaluation without hard work only reduce your standard of...
Here are nine themes I see playing out that would ensure a bull market for the dollar:

Theme #1—Euro no longer a viable challenger against the dollar

The euro is not saved yet, by any means. I expect another crisis to rear its ugly head within the next six months or sooner. But even assuming the euro is "saved," I would expect at least a decade of deflation and slow growth. As a result, the euro will fall of its own weight relative to the dollar and other major world currencies.

Theme #2 — Most of the monetary policy impact is behind us

Each of the Fed's new programs has been increasingly less effective in helping the real economy. Sooner or later the market will clear itself. And when it does the Fed will quickly take back all those excess reserves, which means U.S. dollar supply will fall. Therefore, fewer dollars will be out there as demand grows with recovery.

Theme #3 — China's reserves are falling, and hot money is fleeing!

I expect this trend to continue as China's economic growth slips further. This again goes to the point of a declining global supply of dollars, which will be good for the dollar's price.

Theme #4 — U.S. real assets look cheap

In a world increasingly looking for good long-term investment ideas, U.S. real assets, including real estate and natural resources, look very competitive. This should lead to strong foreign direct investment into the United States. Indeed, good for the dollar.

Theme #5 — The ramp up in U.S. domestic energy production helps the buck

There are two ways this is bullish for the dollar: 1) Falling oil imports should help cut our trade deficit; and 2) It leads to more international investment into the U.S. by investors wanting to position accordingly.

Theme #6 — Global rebalancing taking place in China and Germany

As the global backdrop for export dependent countries changes, the top exporters — China and Germany — will have to increase domestic demand in order to grow. This will likely help U.S. exports and be the real beginning of the long awaited global rebalancing. It will be dollar positive for sure!

Theme #7 — Rising pool of U.S. domestic savings

The credit crisis has triggered a palpable shift in U.S. consumer savings/consumption patterns. I expect this to be secular in nature. As the U.S. pool of savings for domestic corporations increases, the dependence on international funding should fall. If the U.S. current account deficit improves dramatically, the dollar will benefit.

Theme #8 — Falling commodity prices

As China decelerates, commodity prices should fall dramatically. This doesn't mean all commodities nor does it mean the secular rally is over. But over the next 1-2 years, this will put pressure on emerging markets and will likely mean U.S. investors keep more of their money onshore for local (U.S.) investment opportunities. That means more dollars staying home instead of being exchanged into other currencies.

Once this mountain of cash is redeployed to fund technologies where U.S. companies have a commanding lead, such as in nanotechnology and 3-D printing, it could virtually trigger a U.S. renaissance and would be a magnet for foreign direct investments. That would be very dollar bullish.

Theme #9 — $2 TRILLION in U.S. corporate cash on the sidelines

Needless to say the ideas I've listed above have implications for asset markets that go way beyond the U.S. dollar. Over the next several weeks I will pick up on each of these themes in greater detail to show you why I believe it's way too soon to write off the dollar or make a long-term bet on the decline in America.
  • #54,850
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:42pm Oct 25, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting 4rextrader





100 pips could you help me out understanding the question I asked jplazard initially regarding japans market the nikkei index.

Thanks in advance bro
Please point me to the original question if possible. Give me more details. Thanks!
  • #54,851
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:52pm Oct 25, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Please point me to the original question if possible. Give me more details. Thanks!
Originally Posted by 4rextrader
JP, would this news effect japanese markets negatively? Is there usually a general correlation I should look for in the news in the future that would help me tell how the japanese markets would open (down or up)?
  • #54,852
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:53pm Oct 25, 2012 7:53pm
Quoting 4rextrader
Originally Posted by 4rextrader
JP, would this news effect japanese markets negatively? Is there usually a general correlation I should look for in the news in the future that would help me tell how the japanese markets would open (down or up)?
Which news are you referring to? Sorry I must have missed the previous conversation.
  • #54,853
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:53pm Oct 25, 2012 7:53pm
i called the usd bull last year and its still in accumulation mode 1 yr of accumulation means crazy bull
  • #54,854
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:57pm Oct 25, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Which news are you referring to? Sorry I must have missed the previous conversation.
news regarding amazon and apple
  • #54,855
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:00pm Oct 25, 2012 8:00pm
Quoting sidhujag
i called the usd bull last year and its still in accumulation mode 1 yr of accumulation means crazy bull
Quite a few financial analysts who actually have very good track records are also in the same boat as you in regards to the USD.

I also feel that the USD will enter into a multi-year Bull run. Even if there is a market "crash" of some sort USD will strengthen as it IS still the safe haven currency of choice alongside the JPY.

Problem with this type of macro view is finding an entry point for your positions. This is where the technicals come into play. Personally, I will look to see what happens after the US elections before making any longer term moves such as AUD, EUR, GBP, and NZD. Right now still playing the Daily with my positions.

I like the info you've been bringing to the table Sid.
  • #54,856
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:08pm Oct 25, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Quite a few financial analysts who actually have very good track records are also in the same boat as you in regards to the USD.

I also feel that the USD will enter into a multi-year Bull run. Even if there is a market "crash" of some sort USD will strengthen as it IS still the safe haven currency of choice alongside the JPY.

Problem with this type of macro view is finding an entry point for your positions. This is where the technicals come into play. Personally, I will look to see what happens after the US elections before making...
Actually the Strong Bull break out might take place Right after we know if Obama or Romney Wins.... the catalyst in my opinion is waiting on whos gona run the government....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,857
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:08pm Oct 25, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting 4rextrader
news regarding amazon and apple
Ok I see. I honestly don't know what type of impact it will have on the JPY or the Nikkei.

However, I wouldn't expect the results, whether good or bad, to be extremely significant, especially in the long term.

Just my opinion...
  • #54,858
  • Oct 25, 2012 8:28pm Oct 25, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting sidhujag
i called the usd bull last year and its still in accumulation mode 1 yr of accumulation means crazy bull
I think the dollar is going to go up for the next decade.

Fiscal cliff my ass.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #54,859
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:00pm Oct 25, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Quite a few financial analysts who actually have very good track records are also in the same boat as you in regards to the USD.

I also feel that the USD will enter into a multi-year Bull run. Even if there is a market "crash" of some sort USD will strengthen as it IS still the safe haven currency of choice alongside the JPY.

Problem with this type of macro view is finding an entry point for your positions. This is where the technicals come into play. Personally, I will look to see what happens after the US elections before...
thanks its jag btw.. it makes sense but ill will be a slow roll up as volatility dies
  • #54,860
  • Oct 25, 2012 10:30pm Oct 25, 2012 10:30pm
Below 1400 if we are below this level on Friday NY open I am shorting AUD even more
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