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  • #54,821
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:05pm Oct 25, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting domino
IMO I think it does matter... the definition lends itself to different ideas and understanding how our trading patterns fall

Investor
speculator
gambler

which one am I
Last comment on this matter: Like I said, we could go on for days in regards to what the real meanings of all 3 of those terms are. Therein lies the problem in this debate...

The concept was "trading for the long term" maybe the word "investor" shouldn't have been used... That's all.
  • #54,822
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:08pm Oct 25, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting jplazard
Foreign Exchange and Forwards are not speculation less than 3% of all US corporations use excess cash for speculation. When you think of forex think of it as a hedging investment. If you go to Goodwill and buy some oldFinance books or go to textbooks.com and buy a few textbooks the main thing they emphasize is NPV


EDIT: Amzn did not meet Aaple is next if they fail the markets are going to have a very bad day tomorrow and I will add short on AUD/USD
JP, would this news effect japanese markets negatively? Is there usually a general correlation I should look for in the news in the future that would help me tell how the japanese markets would open (down or up)?

anyone who knows the answer, please feel free to write your response...many thanks
  • #54,823
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:11pm Oct 25, 2012 4:11pm
It seems that there is no more controversy. He agrees, and he has given one definition under wich sidhujag could be considered as an investor. He was of a great intellectual integrity IMO.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #54,824
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:45pm Oct 25, 2012 4:45pm
There has been a decorrelation between AUS200 and the Aussie and if you look back you notice that, the last time, Aud/Usd worked like a momentum indicator showing a "bearish divergence" and then it fell with his stock-index.

Finally AUS200 could be at a reversal point to go to make the bottom of the 30days cycle, so if the bullish divergence will not be confirmed and price will not make an HH we may see a strong weakness of the Aussie in the next days/weeks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aus.png Size: 71 KB

(The vertical line are the bottoms of the cycles of AUS200, not A/U)


Have a nice evening :nerd:
  • #54,825
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:17pm Oct 25, 2012 5:17pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1350606104

the above screen i put up on the 18th and if There was going to be follow through in ES other indices (Japan/Europe/London) for a selloff I dont see anything this week even though we breached ES futures 1400 twice now. I would look for next week or after elections.

As for Japan I am not the expert on their fundis 100pips is much better and several other traders here have extensive views that I am soaking in all the time on Japan
  • #54,826
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:21pm Oct 25, 2012 5:21pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Seriously sidhu... Plot daily ema 55 and 200 and see where we got rejected?
I will.. but 1747 and 1757 are still there... the lower it goes the stronger the coil gets.. it doesnt have to go up or down... but im just telling you its attracted to that area. A risk off might push it down until risk is on again but thats another story.
  • #54,827
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:24pm Oct 25, 2012 5:24pm
from bloomberg

Gold futures may slump to $1,600 an ounce by the end of the year, according to technical analysis by Paul Kavanaugh at FuturePath Trading LLC.



The contract for December delivery settled below its 50-day moving average for the second straight day, signaling the metal may slide 6 percent from yesterday’s closing price of $1,701.60 on the Comex in New York, Kavanaugh, the Chicago-based director of business development, said in a telephone interview.





Read More: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...lyst-says.html
  • #54,828
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:27pm Oct 25, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Last comment on this matter: Like I said, we could go on for days in regards to what the real meanings of all 3 of those terms are. Therein lies the problem in this debate...

The concept was "trading for the long term" maybe the word "investor" shouldn't have been used... That's all.
Who cares... but in the end you can set yourself to beat inflation instead of keeping it in a savings account. When you want to by a house or a gold bar you take it out to by something physical that should appreciate... but your purchasing power will increase. Speculating takes your P/L in cycles and if you time yourself right you can always get ont he positive cycle more ofthen than the negative... but you can also use very tiny MM and close the cycles so that they are insignificant so you dont even have to watch the chart anymore just add everytime you go down.... aslong as you believe the 6 month to 1 year strategy you should be ok... when was the last time you saw historical lows leading to a selloff that would put that kind of strategy in margin call territory? Price would need to get to about 30-40 on UJ for that to happen...a nd at that point I would guess that there woudl be bigger problems for you to worry about than your forex account...

If you can get the speculation cycles right you can decrease the time it takes for you to buy that physical asset but its essentially just crunching your TF between validating your hypothesis and then taking that money and putting it to good use.
  • #54,829
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:45pm Oct 25, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting 4rextrader
JP, would this news effect japanese markets negatively? Is there usually a general correlation I should look for in the news in the future that would help me tell how the japanese markets would open (down or up)?
Quoting 4rextrader

anyone who knows the answer, please feel free to write your response...many thanks


Quoting jplazard
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1350606104
Quoting jplazard

the above screen i put up on the 18th and if There was going to be follow through in ES other indices (Japan/Europe/London) for a selloff I dont see anything this week even though we breached ES futures 1400 twice now. I would look for next week or after elections.

As for Japan I am not the...



100 pips could you help me out understanding the question I asked jplazard initially regarding japans market the nikkei index.

Thanks in advance bro
  • #54,830
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:51pm Oct 25, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting sidhujag
I dont see China bottoming.. I believe it is topping. It's a communist state that manipulates its economy to get what it wants based on cheap labour... now other countries have caught on and US is heading towards export based economy because of its cheap USD it will have a head start. India is the poor mans China right now but with better potential because of economic/political policies that more align to global growth in the new era.

China had its 25-35 year run and it was a good one, but I strongly believe it is over hence why AUD is a long term...
I have to say this is an interesting theory, though I disagree with it completely. There are currencies devalued even more than the Chinese Yuan, why was it they did not have the same miracle growth? Chinese, or Korean, or Japanese growth in the 1980's were the result of people working 10 hours or more a day, 6 or more days a week. And they save and invest. More than 100 countries peg their currencies to the US$, very few if any had the same growth as China. Want growth? Save and invest. Devaluation without hard work only reduce your standard of living.

Plus the so called cheap labour is the only thing that keeps the world economy going by producing real items that every consumers use. The only thing Americans produce nowadays are weapons to bomb defenceless countries with, and more greenbacks for the financial parasites so they can pretend to be productive while doing nothing by moving numbers around.

As for the USD thing, I'm not entirely sure where you're going with this, so is your entire reasoning of the USD rising is because you think its at multi year lows and therefore it'll rise because its low?? That makes no sense at all. A currency is essentially just worthless paper. There's no bottom limit to how low it can go. Is there any fundamental reason why the usd would go up? Like do you see the FED raising rates any times soon what with the multi trillion deficit that the government can't pay even with next to 0% interest rates. Or that they'll stop printing money any time soon?

Lastly and I'd love for you to explain this, how exactly is the US heading towards an export based economy, with a (presumably) higher dollar to boot?
  • #54,831
  • Oct 25, 2012 5:54pm Oct 25, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting sidhujag
I will.. but 1747 and 1757 are still there... the lower it goes the stronger the coil gets.. it doesnt have to go up or down... but im just telling you its attracted to that area. A risk off might push it down until risk is on again but thats another story.
You are right.... The deeper gold gets the stronger coil gets.... BUT like i said.... i read the charts and my technical analysis... and historically speaking whenever Price is above 55 ema and 55 ema above daily.... its time to go Short form wherever price is back to 55 EMA. simple... and IF we break below (which we did in gold) that 55 ema and stays below (which we had a rejection today when 55EMA is at 1715, then our next target is the 200 EMA.....

It doesnt matter how many time you keep telling yourself that YEs yes... the coil is gona spring.... what matters is what the charts are saying... i totally agree with you.... but for Gold to fly to 2000 and above for next year... i am seeing 1550 as a possible target for the momentum needed to reverse and meet 2000.... no jokes... but right now focusing on the daily.... next target is 166x... and im already underestimating myself on this one.... because WEEKLY target is right under 166x at 1650.... go figure... Weekly ema 55 is SO CLOSE to the Daily EMA 200.... pretty sure there are orders down there to be hit before we spring to 2000.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,832
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:06pm Oct 25, 2012 6:06pm
By the way guys...
Am i seeing this right?? NZD rates didnt cut, so SHORT term NZDUSD rises, logical....
then long term down?? because high interest rates causes currency to fall long term....

As opposed to Interest Rates Cut... Currency Drops in the short term... but rallies after...

Im seeing a Really significant Bearish Doji on the NZDUSD... anyone wana confirm?? well im already short on it so fuck it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd daily.gif Size: 20 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,833
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:09pm Oct 25, 2012 6:09pm
not sure if you read this already but here..

New Zealand’s new central bank chief, in his inaugural address, signaled a willingness to sell the nation’s currency if it stays unjustifiably high and doing so wouldn’t derail inflation goals.



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand “will be prepared to intervene if all its conditions are met,” Governor Graeme Wheeler said today in a speech in Auckland, the former World Bank official’s first since he took over from Alan Bollard in late September. The currency fell to 81.86 U.S. cents at 10:23 a.m. in Wellington, from 82.14 cents before the speech.



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...-currency.html







Quoting fxtyrant
By the way guys...
Am i seeing this right?? NZD rates didnt cut, so SHORT term NZDUSD rises, logical....
then long term down?? because high interest rates causes currency to fall long term....

As opposed to Interest Rates Cut... Currency Drops in the short term... but rallies after...

Im seeing a Really significant Bearish Doji on the NZDUSD... anyone wana confirm?? well im already short on it so fuck it...
Attachment
  • #54,834
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:17pm Oct 25, 2012 6:17pm
Yeah he even mentioned "intervention" .

I scalped the aud/nzd for like a dozen times for 5-10 pips each in the morning.
  • #54,835
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:18pm Oct 25, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting HelloOz
not sure if you read this already but here..

New Zealand’s new central bank chief, in his inaugural address, signaled a willingness to sell the nation’s currency if it stays unjustifiably high and doing so wouldn’t derail inflation goals.



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand “will be prepared to intervene if all its conditions are met,” Governor Graeme Wheeler said today in a speech in Auckland, the former [url="http://topics.bloomberg.com/world-bank/"]World...
Actually ive been short NZD for days now... even Before this wheeler guy coming out to say that sort of shit.... its in the charts.....
Anyways its great how im calling stuff good latey....
Problem is.... we get some WEIRD shit PA like the ones we had Wednesday out of the blue.... yes it moved up but the picture stays the same... Still bearish everything risk... and still Bullish Dollar....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,836
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:23pm Oct 25, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting Iro
Yeah he even mentioned "intervention" .

I scalped the aud/nzd for like a dozen times for 5-10 pips each in the morning.
By the way... may i ask you something??
If you think China is still growing... may i ask why is this interesting looking index showing a -4% growth year to date??
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/se_composite/

i mean surely if you think chinese companies and economy is growing... shouldnt their stock market also rise?? a chart like that will make you wonder why the fuck the Chinese economy is still saying they have a 7.9% growth this year when their Companies arent growing....

may i ask what is your take on this?? because you sure sound ABSOLUTELY hilarious when you say the chinese economy is not cooked up....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,837
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:31pm Oct 25, 2012 6:31pm
Im waiting for Iro to reply about how china's economy is not cooked up... this is gona be a classic...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,838
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:38pm Oct 25, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting maximinus
Hello Dab,
thank you for the reply and inputs. I appreciate. You mark several points (100pipsaday also of course, but you discern my psycho much better.) You are so polite and discrete than you don't write what I am. But I have the right to say anything negative on my account.
I am simply procrasinating to reach the next level.I believe that I know what I have to do, but I'm simply not doing it.
My plan is to hit the max money in each session and run fast and furious. I mean that I know approximately what is the average range for each session for...
I applaud you for trying to reach the next level, it is part of the journey of every good FX trader to try to constantly learn and improve. Why you’re not doing what you believe you should be is an interesting question.
1. You have answered it in part by alluding to your change in trading strategy. If this is the sole reason than persisting over time will allow you to adjust (assuming your new strategy suits your personality and goals (a reason why a great strategy for one person may not work for someone else).
2. Part could be that you are targeting average ranges for sessions (& thanks as that’s something I can consider doing that I haven’t previously), yet know that by definition average means that they could be far exceeded or not met. Part of your psyche wants to capture the times when it exceeds but not give up the times when it retreats from there once met. This goes back to what I said about trying to capture every pip – difficult in short term, impossible in long term.
Maybe try proving to yourself which is the best strategy for you. Deliberately try different trading styles and strictly monitor which type of trade each is going to be when you open it and follow your plan for it. Over time evaluate which strategy is most profitable. This may be difficult as different strategies work differently in different conditions eg trending versus ranging markets.
If long term you can not stick to your plan for trades of a particular style than it is not the strategy for you.
Another suggestion would be that if you know the target (based on average range for session) for a trade when you open it than set a limit so that the trade is automatically closed at your pre determined profit level.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,839
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:45pm Oct 25, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting maximinus
Thank you 100pips,
I questioned myself if I was an absolute idiot by considering what sidhujag suggested me ? Even if it does not fit my trading conception and strat for now, his suggestion make sense.
I tend to consider the expression of dissent, contradictory opinions etc. as an enrichment. But obviously people consider dissents as null and void. Let it be.
GN.
I don't think it is at all silly to consider others methods and whether they will work for ourselves. To me this is a way to grow and learn, be it by adoption or by considering and rejecting. The other consideration is to not try too many things at once, otherwise it will be too time consuming and distracting. Personally I'm trying a number of things but noting others to try in future.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,840
  • Oct 25, 2012 6:53pm Oct 25, 2012 6:53pm
320 looked like decent hourly support if we had a pullback yesterday, but looking very tenuous now. Next is 290-300. Where do you guys see it bottoming out today?
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