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  • #11,481
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:32pm Oct 24, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I understand you are talking about a reversed H/S. But the one I see is a regular H/S.

When the neck line and the right shoulder meet, the Aussie will be rolling over to the sub-parity from that intersection. IMO
You have to admit - one problem with head and shoulders pattern is that it can be flipped upside down ^^ More often than not, when you see head and shoulders, you can also spot reverse head and shoulders.

under your scenario, 1.026 is the key - if aud goes below that point, aud plummets. Under my scenario, 1.04(420 even) is the key - if it goes above, 1.06 is next.

Honestly, I think both scenarios are equally plausible. So, let's keep an eye on these two levels and then we'll know what will happen thereafter.

By the way, I'm quite certain that you posted daily/weekly chart. I was referring to the 4 hour chart.
  • #11,482
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:37pm Oct 24, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting maximmm
You have to admit - one problem with head and shoulders pattern is that it can be flipped upside down ^^ More often than not, when you see head and shoulders, you can also spot reverse head and shoulders.

under your scenario, 1.026 is the key - if aud goes below that point, aud plummets. Under my scenario, 1.04(420 even) is the key - if it goes above, 1.06 is next.

Honestly, I think both scenarios are equally plausible. So, let's keep an eye on these two levels and then we'll know what will happen thereafter.

By the way, I'm quite certain...
I am flexible to see either way. Nothing is certain until it's over.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,483
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:40pm Oct 24, 2012 10:40pm
One more important point - one that plays in your favour (0.98 being the first target rather than 1.06) - NZD rallied quite a bit today and it is now only 100 pips away from the upper line of the 1 year triangle formation - a triangle formation that also exists in aud pair. Given that I do not expect nzd to break the upper line prior to testing the lower one (at 0.76) - either aud and nzd will now start heading lower - much lower to test the bottom of the triangle formation, or under my scenario, aud will have to skyrocket while nzd will stand still (possible, but unlikely).

Anyways, we'll see what happens. I am shorting nzd - starting now.

Now all we need is a crisis of some sort @@
  • #11,484
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:50pm Oct 24, 2012 10:50pm
Quoting maximmm
One more important point - one that plays in your favour (0.98 being the first target rather than 1.06) - NZD rallied quite a bit today and it is now only 100 pips away from the upper line of the 1 year triangle formation - a triangle formation that also exists in aud pair. Given that I do not expect nzd to break the upper line prior to testing the lower one (at 0.76) - either aud and nzd will now start heading lower - much lower to test the bottom of the triangle formation, or under my scenario, aud will have to skyrocket while nzd will stand...
This is what I am wondering about as well. If a crisis occurs, this scenario may complete in a very short period. I am not saying a crisis should happen. But, in order to reach that bottom in a short period, a catalyst is a must.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,485
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:51pm Oct 24, 2012 10:51pm
By the way, on daily chart, the key to getting to 0.98 is the breach of 1.015
  • #11,486
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:52pm Oct 24, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting DaddyBear
This is what I am wondering about as well. If a crisis occurs, this scenario may complete in a very short period. I am not saying a crisis should happen. But, in order to reach that bottom in a short period, a catalyst is a must.
A new USA president is elected. Romney would certainly be prone to crisis situations^^
  • #11,487
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:54pm Oct 24, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting maximmm
By the way, on daily chart, the key to getting to 0.98 is the breach of 1.015
The path won't be straight.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,488
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:55pm Oct 24, 2012 10:55pm
umm hey, I think I have a problem here technically.

I use MA10, MA48, and MA100 on my AUD/USD chart.
the point is, MA48, and MA10 aren't strong guard line. price always breaks it.

i want to know, what MAs all you people use here?

a little your help would help me a lot.

thank you...
  • #11,489
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:59pm Oct 24, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting maximmm
A new USA president is elected. Romney would certainly be prone to crisis situations^^
Romney is for the tightening. This may push the USD to a higher ground. If our projections were correct, then Romney would be elected.

In other words, the Aussie will have about 3 moths to move down to sub-parity then move to 1.06 or beyond. By the time Romney is in the White House, the Aussie begins to plunge.

Make sense?
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,490
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:59pm Oct 24, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting mas_iyoo
umm hey, I think I have a problem here technically.

I use MA10, MA48, and MA100 on my AUD/USD chart.
the point is, MA48, and MA10 aren't strong guard line. price always breaks it.

i want to know, what MAs all you people use here?

a little your help would help me a lot.

thank you...
I don't use MA at all.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,491
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:08pm Oct 24, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Romney is for the tightening. This may push the USD to a higher ground. If our projections were correct, then Romney would be elected.

In other words, the Aussie will have about 3 moths to move down to sub-parity then move to 1.06 or beyond. By the time Romney is in the White House, the Aussie begins to plunge.

Make sense?
Based on previous falls in the triangles - 3 months seems reasonable - though we are in the narrower portion of the triangle - the fall may occur more swiftly. One can only hope that it's a different kind of crisis that will serve as the catalyst - wouldn't want to see Romney in the office. Perhaps China related news or some other event.
  • #11,492
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:12pm Oct 24, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting mas_iyoo
umm hey, I think I have a problem here technically.

I use MA10, MA48, and MA100 on my AUD/USD chart.
the point is, MA48, and MA10 aren't strong guard line. price always breaks it.

i want to know, what MAs all you people use here?

a little your help would help me a lot.

thank you...
I mostly draw resistance/support lines (triangle/wedge formations, etc) and use EWP count.

I do have 200 MA but I don't look at it much per se.
  • #11,493
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:13pm Oct 24, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting maximmm
Based on previous falls in the triangles - 3 months seems reasonable - though we are in the narrower portion of the triangle - the fall may occur more swiftly. One can only hope that it's a different kind of crisis that will serve as the catalyst - wouldn't want to see Romney in the office. Perhaps China related news or some other event.
Personally, I think Romney will be a better president than Obama.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343413368
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,494
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:16pm Oct 24, 2012 11:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Personally, I think Romney will be a better president than Obama.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343413368
If Obama is reelected, the Aussie is going to fly to the Moon. This is contradicting to my chart reading. So, I would assume Romney to be the President.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,495
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:17pm Oct 24, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
If Obama is reelected, the Aussie is going to fly to the Moon. This is contradict to my chart reading. So, I would assume Romney to be the President.
Yes, agree, as will the price of precious metals
  • #11,496
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:21pm Oct 24, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Personally, I think Romney will be a better president than Obama.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343413368

Because of the name alone?!^^

I have a problem with GOP in general - also Romney has already managed to say many Bush-like things.

It's great for comedy.... but not much else.

Otherwise, GOP scares me on the whole. Pro-rich, pro-war/military expansion, anti-women rights, anti-abortion, extremely pro-religion.
  • #11,497
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:24pm Oct 24, 2012 11:24pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I don't use MA at all.
so, Dad, what indicators or something become your guard line?
  • #11,498
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:25pm Oct 24, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting fxstir
Yes, agree, as will the price of precious metals
The dropping value of the USD has already inflated the living costs in the US a lot. I buy ice cream very often. The manufacturers don't hike the prices but shrink the boxes instead again and again. But, Big Ben kept saying no inflation. He has never gone to a supermarket IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,499
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:27pm Oct 24, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting mas_iyoo
so, Dad, what indicators or something become your guard line?
I use EWP, ADX plus some customized indicators.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350800426
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,500
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:28pm Oct 24, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting maximmm
I mostly draw resistance/support lines (triangle/wedge formations, etc) and use EWP count.

I do have 200 MA but I don't look at it much per se.
so I think MAs don't really work for AUD/USD.

I'm a beginner at forex trading.
so, any suggest for me for better guard line to use?
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