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  • #761
  • Oct 22, 2012 11:19am Oct 22, 2012 11:19am
rafiki, maybe 3 month ago, i ever make S/P for gbpjpy, i am not use it, because i worried can't disturb my focus, draw horizontal line every 400pips with blue violet.117.00, 121.00, 125.00,129.00 etc, after that give thin horizontal line , red colour above and below blue violet line.116.50, 117.50, 115.50, 112.50 etc i hope it's will help you .JBU
  • #762
  • Oct 23, 2012 12:41am Oct 23, 2012 12:41am
Nice lesson. We learn different things of forex with passing more time in trading and if we share it with the dummies it will easier for him/her to survive long time in forex.
  • #763
  • Oct 24, 2012 11:13am Oct 24, 2012 11:13am
Hello Articulate
at the start of your thread you mention letters and a large stop loss for your buy and sell entries nN mM V U W along with a large stop loss.

I have been reading through your thread and can not find anything about them.
I have always been intrigued by them and used them on lower timeframes with
small stops and not a lot of success.

I have never used them on a weekly timeframe (obviously a big mistake on my part).
Are the weekly timeframes with the letters and the large stoploss the way to go in your opinion.
  • #764
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:21pm Oct 24, 2012 12:21pm
As I mentioned earlier I will continue to post my monthly update and post in-between if there is something significant to discuss. What I want to discuss today is candle “Pins” in relation to price action. It is important to understand that Technical Analysis allows you to understand the past, while the Price Action tells you the future. Understanding pins is critical in being able to predict the future in FX. You should also understand Pin is a clear evidence/indication that a bullish/bearish movement has failed. Logically if a bullish move fails, the natural reaction is a bearish reversal. Conversely, if a bearish move fails, the natural reaction is bullish reversal.

In addition, the most important candle as far as retail traders are concerned is the weekly candle. The direction of the weekly candle is always clear, it can consolidate (concrete zone) along the way but its destination could never be in doubt. Now to pins, if you want to improve significantly your chances of success study and understand the weekly pins. In case of day traders, your best guide is to monitor H4 pins to know when to follow the trend or counter-trade within a trend. If a level is important, you will see at list a two 2 pins and up to 8/10 candles (i.e. at least 8 hours or 32 to 40 hours) to make a decisions.

Rafiki, pay attention to my monthly charts and updates which I usually post at the beginning of each month because all the important levels could be found on these charts. As for GBPJPY, it has consolidating between 124.72-128.81 (409 pips) since 125 was broken about 8 weeks ago.
Look at the attached charts to clearly see the current range and where to expect a breakout to the top and bottom.

Quoting Rafiki
Attachment


Hello Articulate,

I have attached a 4 hr chart of GBP/JPY. I would like to know if this pair would go up past 128.19.in the next few days

Thank you.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: understanding pins - weekly chart.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: understanding pins - weekly consolidation.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: understanding pins - h4 pins.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #765
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:32pm Oct 24, 2012 12:32pm
The nN mM V U W I mentoned are only applicable basically to the weekly chart and to some extent the daily chart around the Masterchart levels. Applying them to timeframes the lower times frames will give you misleading signals. Change your charts to line charts to see them clearly. look at the chart below to see these letters.


Quoting don555
Hello Articulate
at the start of your thread you mention letters and a large stop loss for your buy and sell entries nN mM V U W along with a large stop loss.

I have been reading through your thread and can not find anything about them.
I have always been intrigued by them and used them on lower timeframes with
small stops and not a lot of success.

I have never used them on a weekly timeframe (obviously a big mistake on my part).
Are the weekly timeframes with the letters and the large stoploss the way to go in your opinion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly mnvw.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #766
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:54am Oct 25, 2012 9:54am
Articulate thanks for your quick reply and the 1st class information that you have provided on this thread.
  • #767
  • Oct 25, 2012 11:33am Oct 25, 2012 11:33am
Hello Articulate,

Thank you very much for your answer to my question, with your experience you may it look so simple to analyze while we continue to have questions.

Now I have another question, based on your analysis do you see GBP JPY heading up further and if so what is the next resistance?

I believe that it is now heading down.
  • #768
  • Edited 9:53pm Oct 25, 2012 4:06pm | Edited 9:53pm
Hi Rafiki

GJ is my favorite pair to trade but it is not an easy pair to trade. This pair has big pullbacks and retracements and if one is not aware of the bigger picture of market direction with higher timeframes one can tend to view a retracement as a new trend when infact it is only a retracement.

I share with you my GJ weekly chart to show market direction based on my analysis. You would note that my chart is based on Articulate's 1000 pip circles. I call them 1000 pip cycles. This pair can tend to go above the 1000 pip cycles (1300-1600 pips) but to simplify my trading I focus on the 1000 pip cycles and depending on momentum and speed of price I adjust accordingly.

My chart is set up so that at the start and end of every cycle I have either a ellipse or rectangle. When this pair has moved a minimum of 1000 pips my mindset begins to adjust knowing that my next set of trades should be in the opposite direction for another 1000 pip cycle. I also have horizontal lines every 500 pips because as Articulate has shown price tends to take a breather every 500 pips, hence a retracement.

My analysis of the weekly chart says that price is currently on its way to complete the 125.00 to 135.00 1000 pip cycle. There is strong momentum and current price action does not say to me that we are ready to head down. If price is going to go beyond the 1000 pip cycle we may not even get a breather (retracement)at 130.00. Tomorrow at 5pm EST ends my trading week so I will wait to see how my weekly candle closes.

Pay attention to the weekly candles for market direction. I am a postion trader and when I enter trades I enter based on if I beleive the market is long or short for the 1000 pip cycle. I believe the market is currently long and if anyone wishes to go short one should be entering short positions with the mindset that those postions should be short term because the 1000 pip cycle has not completed. My opinion will only change if we get a weekly candle that closes below 125.00.

I have attached two charts. Both charts are my weekly GJ charts and the charts are the same. I simply attached two incase you could not open one. The GJ doc file just increase to 150% and you will see the chart better. The GJ png just click on the image and you will be able to enlarge it.

I hope my post helps you with market direction and helps you set up your charts and trades accordingly.

Take care and all the best with your trading.

Skillwill
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Weekly.png Size: 74 KB
The Will is Greater than the Skill
  • #769
  • Oct 25, 2012 7:56pm Oct 25, 2012 7:56pm
Skillwill,

Wow! Thank you for your very detailed explanation and your meticulous chart, another example of following Articulate's style of trading.You took so much time to explain in so much detail and your chart is captivating.

I am so happy as should all of us on this thread be of the example set by Articulate by way of his selfless teaching and sharing which we all now enjoy.

Another person that comes immediately to mind is Mr Chia who gives his sincere and great explanations.

Let us continue to join this wonderful friendship we share here, I am sitting here 8.54 pm Toronto time with my favourite drink a rum and coke just reading this thread over and over knowing I am in good company.

Cheers!
  • #770
  • Oct 25, 2012 9:51pm Oct 25, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting Rafiki
Skillwill,

Wow! Thank you for your very detailed explanation and your meticulous chart, another example of following Articulate's style of trading.You took so much time to explain in so much detail and your chart is captivating.

I am so happy as should all of us on this thread be of the example set by Articulate by way of his selfless teaching and sharing which we all now enjoy.

Another person that comes immediately to mind is Mr Chia who gives his sincere and great explanations.

Let us continue to join this...
Rafiki, ha ha ha i just share my opinion, end of month and end of week it's very important, GOD BLESS YOU ALL
  • #771
  • Oct 26, 2012 8:57am Oct 26, 2012 8:57am
Pay attention to the weekly candles for market direction. I am a postion trader and when I enter trades I enter based on if I beleive the market is long or short for the 1000 pip cycle. I believe the market is currently long and if anyone wishes to go short one should be entering short positions with the mindset that those postions should be short term because the 1000 pip cycle has not completed. My opinion will only change if we get a weekly candle that closes below 125.00.

Skillwill in your opinion (or analysis) where do you think the latest 1000 pip cycle has has taken off from and what do you base it on.
  • #772
  • Oct 26, 2012 9:38pm Oct 26, 2012 9:38pm
Hi don555

Your question was: Skillwill in your opinion (or analysis) where do you think the latest 1000 pip cycle has taken off from and what do you base it on?

My answer:

My analysis says that the 1000 pip cycle took off at 124.74 and it is actually noted in post#768 on the chart itself where I note on the chart ‘Pullback (409) start 11th cycle 124.74.’ I base the start of a cycle on price action; nothing more nothing less. Let me elaborate a bit more so you can have a better understanding.

I have attached a daily chart for start and completion of Cycle#10 – 118.77 to 128.83 (in orange). I think you should open the attachment now so my notes below will make sense to you. I am going to explain to you what I do each and every time a cycle is completed.

(1) I open a daily chart and I divide my chart into 4 equal quadrants. Cycle#10 had a total of 1006 pips. I don’t pay attention to the 6 extra pips. My 4 quadrants are divided every 250 pips and I watch and see how price behaves at these levels.

(2) I also do a Fibonacci for the cycle just completed and I add it to the same chart. Now I have all levels I need to pay attention too on one chart.

(3) Cycle#10 was a long cycle so I am looking for one of two things. Am I going to get a 1000 pip cycle in the opposite direction or is this only a retracement? Time will tell based on price action.

(4) Price does not have too much of a problem going through quadrant#1. Then comes quadrant#2 and sideways price action starts to occur (first yellow ellipse) and on the first move down into quardrant#2 price stalled above fib 38.2% level. This is my first note to self that this may only be a retracement and not a 1000 pip short cycle and I make a notation that cycle#11 may be long with starting price of 125.34 (lowest point in first yellow ellipse).

(5) Price then goes up to 127.81 and it gives me more confidence in my analysis that cycle#11 may have begun at 125.34. That run itself was just under 250 pips. Then as fast as it went up it came right back down going as low as 124.74 (second yellow ellipse). I then make a second note to self that I am now confused. Is the 1000 pip cycle now short from 127.81 or long from 124.74? I look at the chart (the one attached in this post) and none of my lines drawn say to me that there is any significance with price 127.81. But when I look at price 124.74 it is near the nice whole number of 125.00 (Articulate brought to my attention in post#449 the importance of these whole numbers) and it is also just under fib level 38.2% at 124.98. I realize this is a significant level and I begin to have more confidence that cycle#11 is long but with start price 124.74 and not 125.34.

Remember this chart was created at the completion of cycle#10 which occurred on September 19th and I have been working off this chart to get me in long or short for cycle#11. Next time I post I will share how I view the price action from 124.74 to 129.64 which unfolded in October. 10 pips shy of 500 pips….something to think about. If you have access to charts over the weekend do a fib extension from 124.74 to 129.64 on a 4hr chart so you can see price nicely. Do you see 127.81 showing it's head once again? It just might have some significance now.

Pay attention to what Articulate has shared about 1000 pip circles. It has improved my trading significantly. This pair is a very volatile pair and is difficult to trade. If you are new at forex choose a less volatile pair and set your charts up accordingly.

I hope I explained myself well enough for you to understand.

All the best with your trading.

Skillwill
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily Chart Completion of Cycle#10.png Size: 63 KB
The Will is Greater than the Skill
  • #773
  • Oct 27, 2012 4:13am Oct 27, 2012 4:13am
rafiki, Skillwill is your PARTNER to share GJ pairs, my analisys GJ zona buy 125.00-125.50 , after touch 129 price can touch 125.50 or continue touch 133, weekly candle and daily candle will tell us,FOR REVERSE ALWAYS SEE H4 AND DAILY CANDLE. rsi weekly almost touch 60,
GBPUSD friday i sell GU 1.6140, i will add my position maybe monday and tuesday. JESUS BLESS YOU ALL
  • #774
  • Oct 27, 2012 9:43am Oct 27, 2012 9:43am
Quoting skillwill
Hi don555

Your question was: Skillwill in your opinion (or analysis) where do you think the latest 1000 pip cycle has taken off from and what do you base it on?

My answer:

[color=black][font=Verdana]My analysis says that the 1000 pip cycle took off at 124.74 and it is actually noted in post#768 on the chart itself where I note on the chart ‘Pullback (409) start 11th cycle 124.74.’ I base the start of a cycle on...

Hi skillwill thanks for your explanation I will look at your chart over the weekend and see if I can get a better understanding of the 1000 pip cycle
  • #775
  • Oct 29, 2012 3:51am Oct 29, 2012 3:51am
Skillwill,

You have a sound understanding of the 1000 pips cycle. I am truly impressed by your detailed explanation and the fact that you've been able to add your personal touch to the 1000 pips cycles. Positioned traders are very rare, because most traders on FX are short-term traders. I am very glad that we have another one here. You should share your views here more often.

I will however advise you to pay more attention to weekly pins and you will be surprised at your findings.

I wish you all the best!

Quoting skillwill
Hi don555

Your question was: Skillwill in your opinion (or analysis) where do you think the latest 1000 pip cycle has taken off from and what do you base it on?

My answer:

[color=black][font=Verdana]My analysis says that the 1000 pip cycle took off at 124.74 and it is actually noted in post#768 on the chart itself where I note on the chart ‘Pullback (409) start 11th cycle 124.74.’ I base the start of a cycle on price...
  • #776
  • Edited 12:48am Oct 30, 2012 12:24am | Edited 12:48am
Hi Articulate

Thanks for the encouraging words. One of my weaknesses as a trader is identifying and understanding pin bars but I am continuing my education in this area and hopefully I will improve soon. Recently I learned that not all pin bars are created equal and that strong pins tend to form at the top or bottom of an extended move, so I will be paying attention to not only when a pin bar forms but its location as well.

Attached is my 4hr chart for the first 500 pip run up for cycle#11. I share my chart to show how I set up the chart and what I look for to find entries on a retracement. Rafiki, you were correct when you said last week that based on the 4hr chart we were heading down. We may have a different interpretation of what “heading down” means, but for me it is only a retracement. I did not see the retracement coming as price had strong momentum last Thursday. I expected this pair to go a bit higher before a pullback. Like I said before I believe we are in a long cycle and my analysis will only change if we get a weekly close below 125.00.

Setting up 4hr chart:

(1) 124.74 to 129.64 is divided into 4 quadrants every 125 pips. We missed the 500 pips by 10 pips so quadrant#4 is 115 pips.

(2) Fibonacci levels from 124.74 to 129.64.

(3) Price point 127.81 horizontal line drawn as this area brought price back down on October 05th. I am still trying to figure out if there is any significance with price 127.81. Two yellow ellipses were explained in previous post.

What I look for:

(1) Long entries between fib levels 38.2% and 50%. Can price retrace lower? Yes, but I tend to focus on the 38.2% and 50% looking for long entries between these two fib levels. I focus on quadrant#2 with stop loss being in the lower region of quadrant#3. If all the market gives is a retrace to only quadrant#1 I do not take long entries.

(2) If stop loss is hit then I enter the market again but in quadrant#3 above fib level 61.8% with stop loss in quadrant#4. If after the second try on entering the market on a retracement I am stopped out I do not enter a 3rd time.

So that is how I set up my 4hr chart and enter the market on retracement. GJ had a weekly candle close above 128.20 last week. We have not had a weekly candle close above 128.20 for a few months.

Side Note: So I am watching current price action and asking myself what is the hold up? Why is this pair not moving? Fundamentally, I say New York is basically shut down as well as other cities because of Sandy, is this a reason? Technically, I have to go to the 15 minute chart for price not moving to make sense to me. My 15 minute chart has only 3 indicators on it; 10ema, 200ema and 800ema. 10ema is stuck between 800ema and 200ema. We have to get some 15 minute bars to close above 200ema before we can go up. If we get 15 minute bars closing below 800ema then down we go to complete the retracement.

Have a good trading week.

Skillwill
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Chart.png Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 Minute Chart.png Size: 55 KB
The Will is Greater than the Skill
  • #777
  • Edited 7:59pm Oct 30, 2012 7:54pm | Edited 7:59pm
Articulate in post 764 you say the following.

In addition, the most important candle as far as retail traders are concerned is the weekly candle. The direction of the weekly candle is always clear, it can consolidate (concrete zone) along the way but its destination could never be in doubt.


How can we tell the direction of the weekly candle?

How do we know that its destination could never be in doubt?

I use ETX Capital as my trading platform are the RSI setting of 14 the same for this platform?
  • #778
  • Oct 31, 2012 5:01am Oct 31, 2012 5:01am
At the beginning of every month, I post monthly updates for some major pairs. The updates usually consist of two charts for each pair i.e. monthly and weekly charts. From these posts you will notice the following distinct patterns in the weekly chart:

a) The direction of the weekly candles is clearly towards 1000 pips for most pairs.
b) In most cases, the weekly candles will consolidate around 500 pips before continuing towards 1000 pips.
c) In most cases you will see a pins on top/or below a weekly candle if price has moved by about 1000 pips.
d) Where there are no pins, you will most likely see a reversal candle (Bull & Bear or Bear & Bull weekly candles) around 1000 pips
e) After these pins the direction in a) above are usually repeated.

Read through this thread and concentrate on the weekly charts I posted carefully and you will begin to understand the weekly candles better. Furthermore, I will post my monthly updates for November. Look at the weekly charts for these updates to confirm the pattern of the weekly candle.

I have said it and will continue to repeat it, if you follow the weekly candles you will never miss your way.

Enjoy your day!



Quoting don555
Articulate in post 764 you say the following.


How can we tell the direction of the weekly candle?

How do we know that its destination could never be in doubt?

I use ETX Capital as my trading platform are the RSI setting of 14 the same for this platform?
  • #779
  • Oct 31, 2012 6:20am Oct 31, 2012 6:20am
Are there other traders that use the ETX Capital platform and if so what are the best RSI settings for this system?

Do the settings need to be altered for different timeframes?

Any info on this would be greatly appreciated.
  • #780
  • Oct 31, 2012 8:12am Oct 31, 2012 8:12am
Quoting Articulate
At the beginning of every month, I post monthly updates for some major pairs. The updates usually consist of two charts for each pair i.e. monthly and weekly charts. From these posts you will notice the following distinct patterns in the weekly chart:

a) The direction of the weekly candles is clearly towards 1000 pips for most pairs.
b) [color=black][font=Verdana]In most cases,...

Articulate thanks for your answers.
At long last I think the penny has dropped.
If we take the GBP/USD as an example.
It is presently going up but I am waiting for a reversal candle of some type to take me to 1.5800 which will finish the 500 pip cycle which had started at 1.63070 on the daily candle on the 21st september.

After that I should be looking for a further 500pip drop.

Enjoy your day as well
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