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  • #7,061
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:55am Oct 20, 2012 10:55am
what a trashy feeling.... i bet black and red on roulette with huge chips towers

I lost 4 times in a row not guessing the color, the last bet I was looking like this for real
Attached Image
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,062
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:56am Oct 20, 2012 10:56am
its all good
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,063
  • Oct 20, 2012 11:09am Oct 20, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Tony112
i lost 46000$ at the casino yesterday, way to go!@
Whoops!!!
  • #7,064
  • Oct 20, 2012 12:31pm Oct 20, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting Tony112
i lost 46000$ at the casino yesterday, way to go!@
Which Casino? Oanda?
  • #7,065
  • Oct 20, 2012 4:22pm Oct 20, 2012 4:22pm
Hello OP, I am new here and a bit confused about this topic. Pls how can I download your indicators? Cheers
  • #7,066
  • Oct 20, 2012 8:27pm Oct 20, 2012 8:27pm
If your system does not work maybe you should try the reverse : 2 pips tp and 400 pips stop loss you will make more money now ! LOL
  • #7,067
  • Oct 21, 2012 8:36am Oct 21, 2012 8:36am
Quoting the_sniper
If your system does not work maybe you should try the reverse : 2 pips tp and 400 pips stop loss you will make more money now ! LOL
hey wow that's good reply for all the ones that put negative comments in here really good idea, they should try that lol. I felt like giving you a voucher for that but I'll wait a little..
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,068
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:46am Oct 21, 2012 9:46am
Quoting the_sniper
If your system does not work maybe you should try the reverse : 2 pips tp and 400 pips stop loss you will make more money now ! LOL
Now i know why they say cut your profit short and let your losers run.
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #7,069
  • Oct 21, 2012 11:12am Oct 21, 2012 11:12am
Quoting Tony112
hey wow that's good reply for all the ones that put negative comments in here really good idea, they should try that lol. I felt like giving you a voucher for that but I'll wait a little..
______

For all the recent smart comments, both optimistic and pessimistic, we (the forum audience) have not heard your response in regard to the calculations based on the figures you yourself presented to us in post 7023.

When I punch your figures into my calculator, this system loses big time.

Comments (smart or stupid) do not make winning systems. Calculated risks do... any my calculator tells me this is a losing system.
  • #7,070
  • Oct 21, 2012 6:41pm Oct 21, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting Tony112
excellent, after 7000 posts on the thread.. that is the conclusion, very well
Hi Tony,

I am sorry my comments are negative. I have enjoyed reading your thread and enjoy your raw emotional honesty - but I feel it is important that traders with little experience realise that this type of system is statistically just not going to work for them.

There may well have been a true edge in this system several decades ago, when i started trading, but retail brokers have long since eliminated it from their data feeds. There is only the illussion remaining - and they will invite you all to trade this method with open arms.

People are better off finding a trending system and building small, low risk (low stress) positions and catch the bigger trends through this. Lots of small losses but you'll always be in to win on the big trends and these will repay you nicely.

Treat your small losses as the cost of doing business and look at your annual return not your daily or weekly. There are many good trending systems on these type of forums.
  • #7,071
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:46pm Oct 21, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting timmy
Hi Tony,

I am sorry my comments are negative. I have enjoyed reading your thread and enjoy your raw emotional honesty - but I feel it is important that traders with little experience realise that this type of system is statistically just not going to work for them.

There may well have been a true edge in this system several decades ago, when i started trading, but retail brokers have long since eliminated it from their data feeds. There is only the illussion remaining - and they will invite you all to trade this method with open arms....

The trend is your friend till it bends and ends
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,072
  • Oct 22, 2012 2:58am Oct 22, 2012 2:58am
Tony: "invest in alarm clocks" - yeah, one for F'furt open, one for NY open... .

To the audience: If you want to analyze the system correctly you need much more accurate backtest. We are talking here about a small edge but highly unlikely to fall down and an R:R of 1.5... so get you tick data and backtest manually last two years. 520 Trades manually, you can do that !

A wolf doesn't eat all the time but he definetely has to... so don't worry.
  • #7,073
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:46am Oct 23, 2012 2:46am
Hi Tony,

I would love to hear your take on the figures from your post 7023.

I did the math in post 7048, and it really looks grim.
  • #7,074
  • Oct 23, 2012 4:31am Oct 23, 2012 4:31am
Ok I'll bite.
Quoting hazel1919
Tony, Please do not take this personally, but based on your comments above, your system is doomed to fail for the following reason: Bear with me.

Lets assume we start with a balance of $10 000. We risk 0.7% over two pips per trade... we take two trades a day... 260 days a year. Half our trades close at break-even and the other half close at our stop loss of -2 pips (this is realistic). On the upside we win one 400 pip ride a year.
I managed to duplicate the 260 day - 18200 result in my spreadsheet given the starting assumptions you mentioned.

Actually the effective leverage used is 35 times leverage (really high) with a starting value of 10K, or $35 per pip which would be 35 x 400 = 14,000 or double your 7,000 estimate. The single annual win still doesn't get you to breakeven, but it's not quite as bad as some of the qualifiers used.

Quote
$7000 minus $18200 = -$11200 (Dead in the water)

Lets get optimistic and say we hit a runner of 400 pips after six months.

Sorry... we are still -$2100 down the hole.

Basically, we have to hit a 400 pip winner EVERY FOUR MONTHS for this system just to break-even.

Tony... others: Put me out of my misery and please prove me wrong on the numbers.

Two wins in a year would provide 14,000 x 2 - 18200 = $9800 net profit on a starting 10K account or just under a 100% account increase. A bit more optimistic than the numbers you provide.

260 days might be too high. It's probably unwise to trade this strategy on holidays, low liquidity. If you skip trading on any day when one of the major banking centers has a holiday this number is going to be smaller than 260.

If you use 10x leverage instead, your drawdown over a year's dry spell is about 50% so the account might not need to be refunded. But appreciation is slower too when you hit your epics.
  • #7,075
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:19pm Oct 23, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting FXEZ
Ok I'll bite.


I managed to duplicate the 260 day - 18200 result in my spreadsheet given the starting assumptions you mentioned.

Actually the effective leverage used is 35 times leverage (really high) with a starting value of 10K, or $35 per pip which would be 35 x 400 = 14,000 or double your 7,000 estimate. The single annual win still doesn't get you to breakeven, but it's not quite as bad as some of the qualifiers used.



Two wins in a year would provide 14,000 x 2 - 18200 = $9800 net profit on a starting 10K account or just under a 100% account...
_______

Thank for what amounts to arguably one of the more clear-headed and rational posts we have seen for quite a while.

What the system amounts to is: two necessary wins per year for your account to double. That averages at 10% per month. Not bad.

If a 400 pipper pops up only once a year... 50% of your equity disappears.

To hang in with this you have to have Bulldog staying power combined with jack-Russell optimism... given that some years are bound to be famine.

In the absence of better statistics, for the time being I will pass on this system. I have to. My calculator tells me so.

Meanwhile, there are many other avenues to explore using Tony's Risk/Reward logic. Perhaps this is fodder for another forum.

_______________
  • #7,076
  • Oct 23, 2012 3:02pm Oct 23, 2012 3:02pm
hazel, You're welcome! If you decide to open a new thread exploring an alternative method based on this same idea, please post a link in this thread so those of us subscribed here can find it. Thanks!
  • #7,077
  • Oct 24, 2012 12:17am Oct 24, 2012 12:17am
Quoting hazel1919
No this is quite interesting.

Assume an opening balance at the beginning of the month of 10 000

You take six trades a day (132 trades). Assume half of them are break-even and the other half lose 7% per trade. Losses for the month will be $70 x 66 trades = $4620. Your profits are 270 pips x $35 (pip value) = $9450. $9450-$4620=$4830 PROFIT!!! Please tell me Ive got my figures wrong!

Now we're cooking!

You method looks much better (based on one month's results) than waiting for what could well be a year for a 400 pip move.

Psychologically,...
but it's only one month live...

currently floating at 65 with 36 locked in from yesterdays Frankfurt open, btw...
  • #7,078
  • Oct 24, 2012 10:35am Oct 24, 2012 10:35am
for 68 pips...
from sell, oct 23, Frankfurt...

the idea was my stable of ea's was going to be doing the funding for this one, so I wouldn't have to re-fund...
it's more like the other way around...
  • #7,079
  • Oct 26, 2012 1:04pm Oct 26, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting doyathink
for 68 pips...
from sell, oct 23, Frankfurt...

the idea was my stable of ea's was going to be doing the funding for this one, so I wouldn't have to re-fund...
it's more like the other way around...
______

I think you broke Tony's rules. See post 1.

ps: Tony, could you elucidate on the math of your system assuming we have one 400 pip win in a year?
  • #7,080
  • Oct 26, 2012 3:24pm Oct 26, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting hazel1919
______

I think you broke Tony's rules. See post 1.

ps: Tony, could you elucidate on the math of your system assuming we have one 400 pip win in a year?
yup, not exactly the same at all times,
but I hope I still contribute to the little push our band o' traders may be making at ny and london open...
how's it going for you and this system, hazel?
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