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  • #11,381
  • Oct 23, 2012 9:54pm Oct 23, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting maximmm
I guess 1.0340 should halt the rise for today - and continue the next day
1.0314 is the weekly pivot.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,382
  • Oct 23, 2012 9:56pm Oct 23, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting maximmm
In fact, if EWP has anything to say about it, we are witnessing the first of three waves up all the way to 1.06
The actual formation of the waves is a complex not only 3 waves. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,383
  • Oct 23, 2012 9:57pm Oct 23, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The actual formation of the waves is a complex not only 3 waves. IMO
Are you saying it's going to be 5 waves to 1.10?!^^
  • #11,384
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:00pm Oct 23, 2012 10:00pm
Again, I have switched to NZD due to clarity. Wave formations, EWP - they are all legit, but regardless, I do see NZD become much weaker than AUD in the short term.

The upside of shorting AUD is that it will be a lot weaker than NZD in the medium/long term.
  • #11,385
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:00pm Oct 23, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting maximmm
Are you saying it's going to be 5 waves to 1.10?!^^
No. It will be a compound form not simple waves. Before going up, I believe a test of the lower level may be in the cards.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,386
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:03pm Oct 23, 2012 10:03pm
By the way, there are many instruments that can be used to analyze currencies - one of the upsides of NZD is that it can currently be analyzed using not only wave formations but also trend lines -

Lately, Aud completely ignores trend lines, which makes it harder to forecast Aud's future movements and/or place tight stops.
  • #11,387
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:04pm Oct 23, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
No. It will be a compound form not simple waves. Before going up, I believe a test of the lower level may be in the cards.
Current high is at the intersection of upper channel, H1 FIB 76.4% and the weekly pivot. This is significant.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,388
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:21pm Oct 23, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Current high is at the intersection of upper channel, H1 FIB 76.4% and the weekly pivot. This is significant.

Err... I take it you still see a red candle after all this
  • #11,389
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:30pm Oct 23, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting maximmm
I wonder if we will see 1.04 tonight
Highly unlikely, news is done for the day, and 1.04 is 70 or so pips above the ADR, but I guess that is what makes an average day, some low range days, mainly average days, with the occasional, unexpected huge range day

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0013.png Size: 38 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #11,390
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:31pm Oct 23, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting maximmm
Err... I take it you still see a red candle after all this
There are still 17 hours before the close, if it closes below the opening, the bar will be red. The average daily range of the Aussie is around 100 pips. Unless it keeps going up, otherwise, the probability of a red candle is still in the cards. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,391
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:40pm Oct 23, 2012 10:40pm
Quoting maximmm
Err... I take it you still see a red candle after all this
Don't forget this Bull .......
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,392
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:42pm Oct 23, 2012 10:42pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Don't forget this Bull .......
Do you see what he sees?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1351050022
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,393
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:53pm Oct 23, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Do you see what he sees?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1351050022
I see bears that are trapped and are waiting for some sort of pull back and are not getting it - one of big traits of Aud - its lack of pullback on short time charts -

Someone here has pointed out that Aud retracts well - but in my experience, Aud retracts well only on weekly/monthly charts but does very little retraction on hourly charts - which makes it a very 'exciting' currency for day traders^^
  • #11,394
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:56pm Oct 23, 2012 10:56pm
One of the upsides for AUD bears is that I'm bearish on NZD - and NZD often pulls Aud in its direction - though not always.
  • #11,395
  • Oct 23, 2012 10:58pm Oct 23, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting maximmm
I see bears that are trapped and are waiting for some sort of pull back and are not getting it - one of big traits of Aud - its lack of pullback on short time charts -

Someone here has pointed out that Aud retracts well - but in my experience, Aud retracts well only on weekly/monthly charts but does very little retraction on hourly charts - which makes it a very 'exciting' currency for day traders^^
What we have seen since yesterday is a complex corrective wave. It has certain life span. When the time is up, an impulsive complex wave will take over. The Aussie may have some personalities but she still has to follow the law of the market. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,396
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:03pm Oct 23, 2012 11:03pm
eur.aud shorting still from last week...still same as last week. tp 1,2506

aud.usd bullish to 1.0420 where i have my tp

eur.cad shorting very strongly for at least 100 pips
-short 1.2880 tp 1.2780
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #11,397
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:10pm Oct 23, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Don't forget this Bull .......
based on daily 1.0385-1.04 still nice to sell again.

all pair gonna pump by draghi and dump by fomc ( IMO )
  • #11,398
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:26pm Oct 23, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There are still 17 hours before the close, if it closes below the opening, the bar will be red. The average daily range of the Aussie is around 100 pips. Unless it keeps going up, otherwise, the probability of a red candle is still in the cards. IMO
Actually, it is lower, using recent data, but over last 6 months, yes, my indicator is saying 96 / day. Volatility has decreased...

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #11,399
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:27pm Oct 23, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting gnomoneey
eur.aud shorting still from last week...still same as last week. tp 1,2506

aud.usd bullish to 1.0420 where i have my tp

eur.cad shorting very strongly for at least 100 pips
-short 1.2880 tp 1.2780
Currently, A divergence between DMIM and DMIP is forming in H4 chart. This indicates a non-bullish case at this point.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,400
  • Oct 23, 2012 11:29pm Oct 23, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting Erebus
Actually, it is lower, using recent data, but over last 6 months, yes, my indicator is saying 96 / day. Volatility has decreased...

Thanks for posting the ATR information. DB
daddybearforex. com
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