Zappa's Journal

Hi yalls,

I'm starting this thread for one reason, as a filter for my trades. If I know others are watching my trades, I think I'll be a little slower to jump into a trade.


Buying here, stops/targets in red.

Trying again.

If I don't get stopped I am going to let this run a little further than initial target.
1.2870 seems like a reasonable place to take profits. I just don't see any resistance until then.

Also, I'm going to keep a tally of total pips collected since the inception of this thread. I lost 30 pips last trade.

TOTAL SO FAR = <30>

Still long EURAUD. Went long 1/2 size chart below. As usual, target/stops are red lines.

I'm changing my targets on both pairs to something I am more sure of.
The initial targets are likely, but you never know if the market might make a random turn before then. What it definitely should do is go to the new targets below.

EURAUD now 1.2730
CADJPY now 81.10

They're still great r/r trades and highly probable in my best estimations.

--Adjusting stop for widened spread over weekend.--

Given the small gap down with no immdeiate follow through, and my feeling that a return to 81.10 is on deck, I am giving CADJPY a wider stop to 79.35, where it should definitely NOT go. R/R is still a solid 1/2.48.

Moving stop on CADJPY to 79.63

Stop on EURAUD now 1.2580

Buying here with 1/8 size. Stop/target in red.

I had a little period where I was spotting so many good looking trades that it caused me to make two mistakes.

First mistake was exiting a profitable trade before my target/stop was hit. I did not let the trade play itself out. Most of these went on to the target. The reason I got out of these trades early was because I saw more potential profit remaining in another set-up (GREED). The problem was #1, I knew the trade I was in would reach the target, whereas I was only 70% sure of the new trade. #2, the risk is always greatest at the beginning of a trade (unless you change the stop, which I do from time to time---as long as trade is at least 1:1 r/r). Stops usually get moved towards target.

The second mistake was failing to realize that the market can turn at a lot of different places before it hits the target sometimes. This, in itself, created more problems. The mistake caused me to enter at less than ideal entry points (PATIENCE). What it also caused me to do was wait a long time for my target to get hit, as I watched the market spend weeks churning around before it finally reached my target (which I wasn't even in anyway b/c of the first mistake I mentioned.) That was half the reason I bailed on the trades to begin with---they were taking too damn long!

In sum, let the trade play out. Spend plenty of time looking at a pair before putting on a trade in it. Don't set targets too far--only as far as you know for 100% (no doubt). Yes, we're all wrong sometimes even when we're 100% about a trade, but I need to be as sure as I can possibly be.

Must break the line to hit my stop.

Well, EURAUD and GBPAUD trades were stopped out for 30 pips and 50 pips. GBPAUD was 1/4 size positon. The CADJPY long is still open and with a pullback, decided to add another 1/2 size, now it's a full load. Avg. price is 80.05 now and stop is still 79.63. Raised target to 81.20 as I'm 95% sure it will hit if 81.10 is hit.

Was initially going to keep a tab of total pips made in thread, but it's pointless really. Pips on each pair are worth more/less than other pairs. I'll always state how many pips I made/lost on the completion of each trade.

I wasn't expecting the circle on the left of chart to be an important point, sometimes it is not. The major clue that I did feel, but discounted too much, was the length and depth of the right circle. This was the give-away. It should've started earlier. I should have exited after seeing that. "Let the trade play out" is what I told myself. Damned if you do, damned if you don't sometimes, I guess.

Well, I stayed in and should have got out, so I don't fucking know, but I'm leaning towards exiting a trade if it starts to look like it's going to be a loser.

GBPAUD was a low risk trade that didn't have a whole lot going for it other than a "good" "possible" low it had made. This trade was put on to add to the EURAUD trade. Dumb, dumb, dumb... This trade should have never been put on in the first place. I gotta stay out of these types of trades.

Finally, in the trade I'm still in things are looking good. The left circle would be a good place to short, if not for the circle on the right. The price reacted the way it is supposed to act off a fake, if it is going higher.

Looking to enter at the middle red line about the same time my CADJPY trade hits the target, if all goes to plan.

I'm going to stay out of the EURCAD trade, and raise the target on CADJPY to 81.50. The churning has built up enough steam for a pop to at least 81.50, i believe.

This pair is increasingly looking like it'll reach higher levels than it did at the beginning of the week. 81.80 looks extremely likely. I viewed 81.26 as a potential turning point throughout the week, but with two attempts at it already I don't think it will be the spot. 81.50 is not a bad target, but with this move built the way it is, 81.80 looks like the minimum. It has a good chance of going much higher, and I might be getting out too early even at 81.80, but that's OK. At 81.80 I will have made a profit of 3.8 times what I risked at the riskiest moment (when I doubled my position). That is a great trade and I need to remember that. Too many times I have gotten greedy and "let my winners run", which is fine for some people, I guess, but not for me. It seems to always bite me in the ass, so not this time.

Target now 81.80.

Although I'd really hate to see it, a spike below 79.95 is slightly possible. So my stop remains at 79.63.

The "slight possibility of a spike to below 79.95" just happened. This just adds another log to the fire. A turn here and we're going to 82.20 easy.

Why do I feel like my stop is where the reversal point will end up being?

If it is, that makes this whole thing here quite a build-up. You've got the first circle that took stops at the line where traders saw a new high and presumably placed their stops at the previous low. Then you've got the 2nd circle which did the same thing as the first circle. Usually that is enough. But no, they need more, I guess. One more for the EW traders. Traders see the break of the previous low (circle 2), a sizable retrace, and then a "breakout" below the 2nd circle (circle 3), aka "wave 3". They'll go short there while the big money adds to a long and we should see much higher prices soon if I'm right about all this. If I'm wrong, maybe I need to check myself into a psychiatric ward.

I re-tried a long here and with all this money being exchanged, I think we're making a signficant low here in this pair.

Lost 45 pips on the CADJPY trade before trying again at 79.76.

I think what I learned this week is that the pairs with lower volume, like CAD, NZD, and CHF, need more fakes to quinch their liquidity before a market can go anywhere. This is a fact, and for now on I will respect it as such. It is why these pairs bounce around so much going no where, there simply isn't the volume to do so.

The way to play these pairs is to wait for more fakes than I would with the high volume pairs. I find myself in trades with these low-v pairs many times, because I spot more fakes, which is what I'm looking for. I get in too early and then get faked out myself! Well, I did jump back in very quickly today, but it shouldn't come to that.

Anyways, I've been watching the other pairs, as well, and that EURCAD trade I posted earlier, but didn't take, looks like it would've been a good entry point. The main point of bringing up this pair, however, is to mention that it looks bullish. This led me to EURJPY, and it too looks bullish. So what I did a couple hours ago was get out of the CADJPY trade for like +3 pips, and then immediately went long EURJPY. This trade should definitely be within 80-100 pips of the low. I think we hit the low already, but not 100% positive. If CADJPY shoots up and EURCAD goes up as well, EURJPY will have no problem hitting 108.00 shortly. That's the plan.