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AUD/USD

  • #54,521
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm
very strong CPI and if China points higher I can't really justify a strong argument for Nov cut but I will wait and see what it shows.
  • #54,522
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting jplazard
The HFT world and the CB's make it even more violent if a selloff does occur people forget the all important Flash crash that took hold in one day 2010 that was scary and the circut breakers failed sending in a flood of sell orders with no bidder in sight
They implemented circuit breakers after flash crash. It prevented a few after that aswell... I remmeber calling the top similar to the chart you just showed... but my coworker has no balls and didn't want to get in before the end of the day... i was going to put $5 grand on some cheap puts... would have made a few hundred k because the next day it gapped down and the following was the crash.... stupid coworker never listening to him again lol tried to say to wait it out the next day and see.
  • #54,523
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm Oct 23, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting sidhujag
interesting chart but what about the 10% rule lol in 87 they didnt have HFT's.. now they ensure that a steep selloff won't occur and fed is there to step in aswell. I'm guessing after the pause they would step in and buy like BOJ did during the earthquake.. just a guess.

Will have to let it play out...
Indeed a guess, not exacly an exact science on this... but i have serious doubt as to how long the fed can keep the S&P bubble up before it collapses like the housing market did.... the fed printed money all the time PRIOR to QE1... they call it the M1 Money Supply..... and money supply over the past years (im talking about before 2008), caused the housing market speculative bubble to rise at unprecedented pace, which ended up to a collapse....
Im just saying.....

The fact you brought BOJ up tells me you're in agreement with me?? since BOJ steps in and yet Yen still gets bought.... Fed steps in so Dollar Still gets Bought?? well USDx sure looking like it....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,524
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:43pm Oct 23, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Indeed a guess, not exacly an exact science on this... but i have serious doubt as to how long the fed can keep the S&P bubble up before it collapses like the housing market did.... the fed printed money all the time PRIOR to QE1... they call it the M1 Money Supply..... and money supply over the past years (im talking about before 2008), caused the housing market speculative bubble to rise at unprecedented pace, which ended up to a collapse....
Im just saying.....

The fact you brought BOJ up tells me you're in agreement with me?? since BOJ...
The fed is not the only cb buying us equities... other cb's are allowed to use it as collateral like its gold... after they announced that deal ES flew up and never looked back.. was late 2011. Check my posts I was calling for it. In the long run they know it will end bad but not before another bubble... they can quit or be voted out by then and be chillin with gold.
  • #54,525
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:43pm Oct 23, 2012 7:43pm
after it peaked 1000 they did not incorporate right away. And the Mini flash crashes are happening to this day in certain equities. If a correction occurs and the HFT machine gets on top of it the authorities would have to close the market up for the day at a minimum. This market is not stable because the central banks are backstopping it, the CDS market since 2008 most contracts have been rolled over and its bigger than the pre crash levels.

this can happen again and it probably will on a grand scale once more hurting confidence on the regulators, exchanges even more
  • #54,526
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:47pm Oct 23, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting Wulfgar
lol I was looking at it for a second and thinking "that bar certainly looks funny"... and its not on my chart anywhere... lol

As I stated last time we were in this zone the 1.0233/0209 area is tough support...

to the topside the 0283 is now re-established itself as resistance and I will look for short setups from that area unless it is broken and closed over on the 4H at LEAST

looking for a close under here on the hour to justify a continuation to the downside... if not we are looking towards the 0317 next and then the 0350/0361...

GL guys

Wulf
  • #54,527
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:47pm Oct 23, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting sidhujag
The fed is not the only cb buying us equities... other cb's are allowed to use it as collateral like its gold... after they announced that deal ES flew up and never looked back.. was late 2011. Check my posts I was calling for it. In the long run they know it will end bad but not before another bubble... they can quit or be voted out by then and be chillin with gold.
good insights, anyways im done with my rowdy behaviour, perhaps the lack of argument against my trades has calmed me down.. but im still bearish expecting a retest of 1.02... Which brings me to what im gona say next...

I loaded another (early) Short attempt (so gona be small lot) up at 1.0291 as i said i would as close to 1.03 as possible.... i only came back online after i was busy reading articles...

Heres why for the Early short.. see that yellow trendline?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 26 KB

That same trendline in H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1.gif Size: 23 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,528
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:49pm Oct 23, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Indeed a guess, not exacly an exact science on this... but i have serious doubt as to how long the fed can keep the S&P bubble up before it collapses like the housing market did.... the fed printed money all the time PRIOR to QE1... they call it the M1 Money Supply..... and money supply over the past years (im talking about before 2008), caused the housing market speculative bubble to rise at unprecedented pace, which ended up to a collapse....
Im just saying.....

The fact you brought BOJ up tells me you're in agreement with me?? since BOJ...
USDx devaluation started late 80's around 87... because USD was too high and companies couldnt compete with the BRIC + Japan. They allowed USD to devalue by selling what $20 billion a month and in exchange they valued all their assets in USD.. their assets rose and so did their currencies.. interest rates rose yet USD was the only one not to rise because of the agreement.... now the gig's up and USD is trying to finalize the pieces to the puzzle... it might be a big trick they set up by allowing now the USD to rise, people willing to work for less creating more of a export based economy, biggest military through research and qe spending and best potential for future growth... as people start working again country will go back with more segregation between rich and poor, and a shrinking middle class.
  • #54,529
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:56pm Oct 23, 2012 7:56pm
Inflation rose more than expected in the third quarter but remains at levels weak enough to allow room for the RBA to cut rates again in November.


Data out today showed inflation rose 1.4 per cent in the three months to the end of September following the introduction of the carbon tax on 1 July. Economists polled by Bloomberg tipped a 1 per cent rise as the impact of the carbon tax filtered through the economy.


On an annual basis, inflation increased 2 per cent, up from a 1.2 per cent rise in the year to June, the ABS said. Economists forecast the inflation rate would tick up to 1.6 per cent in the year to September.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-e...#ixzz2AB47e3Bp

  • #54,530
  • Oct 23, 2012 7:57pm Oct 23, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting jplazard
very strong CPI and if China points higher I can't really justify a strong argument for Nov cut but I will wait and see what it shows.
November IB's now pricing a cut at 60% , in from 85% yesterday and 78% prior to CPI release .

Retails Sales are due for release the day before the RBA meeting .
Unless they prove to be extraordinary strong , I'd say a 25 bps rate cut is still the most likely scenario .
  • #54,531
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:02pm Oct 23, 2012 8:02pm
Fair point I am looking at the report more in depth and Tradable inflation only rose +0.3% over the quarter. Without the impact of the high AUD this would have been a very ugly number

Looking into the report than just reading the headline number brings the numbers in more context
  • #54,532
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:09pm Oct 23, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting jplazard
Fair point I am looking at the report more in depth and Tradable inflation only rose +0.3% over the quarter. Without the impact of the high AUD this would have been a very ugly number

Looking into the report than just reading the headline number brings the numbers in more context
yo lazard... any idea what the Year on Year inflation rate is at now?? if its Above 3% or Below 2%, would be cause for concern for the Australian Economy.... Above 3% and below 2% is when the RBA will consider monetary policy
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,533
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:10pm Oct 23, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting jplazard
Fair point I am looking at the report more in depth and Tradable inflation only rose +0.3% over the quarter. Without the impact of the high AUD this would have been a very ugly number

Looking into the report than just reading the headline number brings the numbers in more context
The Headline is pretty much irrelevant - just fodder for the mainstream media.
The Trimmed and Weighted Means are the numbers the Market focuses on .
  • #54,534
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:11pm Oct 23, 2012 8:11pm
if china data come out bad, AU is going to test yes low. now is sandwiched
  • #54,535
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:14pm Oct 23, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting david11
if china data come out bad, AU is going to test yes low. now is sandwiched
im about 70% certain that AUDUSD will test the 1.0180/1.0200 lows today.... only this time i hold we get a follow through so we can open ways down to parity
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,536
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:16pm Oct 23, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting fxtyrant
yo lazard... any idea what the Year on Year inflation rate is at now?? if its Above 3% or Below 2%, would be cause for concern for the Australian Economy.... Above 3% and below 2% is when the RBA will
consider monetary policy
These are the numbers that matter ;

 

  1. Trimmed mean y/y +2.4%
  2. Weighted mean y/y + 2.6%

The Headline y/y was + 2.0% , but that's the wrong figure to be looking at .

  • #54,537
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:17pm Oct 23, 2012 8:17pm
2.0 I like looking and manipulating the TABLE 5. CPI: Groups, Index Numbers by Capital City which can be found here http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]?OpenDocument


I also like the following very reassuring

The central bankers, though, have tended to follow a rate cut with another one hard on its heels. And since the RBA has moved rates at each Melbourne Cup day since 2006, the odds remain in favour of a seventh consecutive race day cut - events which might generate the odd screaming headline of their own.
  • #54,538
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:24pm Oct 23, 2012 8:24pm
Todays hike in CPI is from Carbon Tax implemented from July1

It isnt from demand. It's from costs.

RBA will most likely look at other factors besides this event.

Economy is stalling so rallies should be sold into.

Rate cut is still on the cards.

Carbon Tax has been very political and you wont get Labor Govt admitting to this rise. They will probably spin it like "Its Tony's Fault"
  • #54,539
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:33pm Oct 23, 2012 8:33pm
Quoting fxtyrant
You know what?? if i get rejected, lets plan this out shall we??


And some muppet just posted after you saying we need to be humble in this industry or we wont survive...

Im reading it and Laughing out loud... The SOONER you show your kindness in this industry, the easier your banking colleague will out perform you and boss you around... SO NO thank you... i wont show any Humbleness in forums or even to my colleagues unless i know them Well enough to be trusted... Because in the banking sector... when you show weakness... you get backstabbed,...
I've never worked in banking so don't know what it's like. I suspect that the banking sector has not helped the economy in Europe or the people in general. I suspect you have used trading instead of banking in your last sentence as I know that you don't need to fight with anyone in trading - you can be very profitable from the comfort of your own home.

I also believe that there is more to life than this world and that we will be held accountable for our present actions in the next life. Happy trading to all & let's learn from each other and exercise respect.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,540
  • Oct 23, 2012 8:38pm Oct 23, 2012 8:38pm
i have long @ 1.0290, 1.0292 and 1.0295
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