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AUD/USD

  • #54,461
  • Oct 23, 2012 12:30pm Oct 23, 2012 12:30pm
As Hugh Hendry (funny hedge fund manager look him up on youtube 'Greatest hits') said,

If they are wrong they keep their tenure, If I am wrong I go broke. The analyst
A. Dont trade the recommendations nor does the 'house' floor
B. If the financial sector ever went off of salary based compensation and went to the hedge fund model of I only make money if client makes money than you would see a moron drain from the Financial field. PPl would not be able to eat or provide for their family because they are untalented and the only reason they are still in the field is because they know somebody or they are on salary which makes them work hard enough not to get fired but not above to outperform the S&P.
  • #54,462
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:05pm Oct 23, 2012 1:05pm
Okay we got a confirmed bullish divergence... on H4, EMA55 is also below ema200 on H4, suggesting we may have an up move, but i will make a guess that itll probabl head up to test the downwards bearish trendline up to around 1.0280/1.0300 area before the next move down.
So im looking to load up short up there... Good luck!
My recommendation, dont try to catch the move up...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 27 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,463
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:11pm Oct 23, 2012 1:11pm
Don't do anything unless ES starts a break higher EOD.
  • #54,464
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:17pm Oct 23, 2012 1:17pm
And then HERE is the reason why one should NEVER try to trade a pullback and in this case entering a Long near the lows (thinking it is the low of the day) because EVEN a confirmed bullish divergence comes up.... you are still trading agains tthe trend, so Typical People who would've longed it as i tell them a confirmed Bullish Divergence in a Bear Trend would have their Stop Loss Hit just now...

So there... Hopefully the this post and the last post have identified how STUPID it is to long a pull back...
Thatswhy i stick by my rule... I wait for a Bearish Divergence in a Bearish Trend to Happen and that usually happens AFTER the pullback where i load up my shorts ..., if the confirmed bullish divergence happens to be like this case, and it never pulls back up... then ill just pass by saying its a missed trade rather than to Lose money on Longing and having my SL hit...

END OF TUTORIAL...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 27 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,465
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:18pm Oct 23, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting jplazard
Don't do anything unless ES starts a break higher EOD.
Nah i didnt do anything... i just explained in my last 2 posts why EVEN a confirmed bullish divergence is dangerous when you are in a bearish trend....
Hopefully some noobs will learn...
Perhaps they will learn and stop saying i ACT like i know everything.... i dont know everything... i just know how to be profitable in Forex...

Interestingly enough... i posted this couple hours ago....
Quoting fxtyrant
This is my expected move on the AUDUSD in the short term. if we break this yellow line. that is IFFF we have a confirmed break below it... i will look to short on a retest as the picture shows...
But then again i have to ACT like i know nothing or else it might piss people off...

Attachment
The Chart then....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd%20h4.gif Size: 30 KB

And the chart now....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 27 KB

See that Wick up?? now how on earth did i guess that?? oh i know... Thats Because i dont ACT like i know everything.... I Just Know....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,466
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:22pm Oct 23, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Nah i didnt do anything... i just explained in my last 2 posts why EVEN a confirmed bullish divergence is dangerous when you are in a bearish trend....
Hopefully some noobs will learn...
Perhaps they will learn and stop saying i ACT like i know everything.... i dont know everything... i just know how to be profitable in Forex...
my 1.018x and 1.02 is still holding with AUD news out today to help out... and then CNY news to take it back to the highs

This was a buying spree of USD not so much AUD weakness.... it wasnt any weaker than anything else. news is what moves the markets and we will see soon.
  • #54,467
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:24pm Oct 23, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting sidhujag
my 1.018x and 1.02 is still holding with AUD news out today to help out... and then CNY news to take it back to the highs
So now you are Hoping on News?? pathetic, buddy like i said even if its gona pull back i am ready to have my trigger finger on the Sell Button around 1.03, perhaps time you learnt your lesson? btw do you still think GOLD is giong up?? please...
I look at the charts.... Not hoping on news... perhaps time you do the same?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,468
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:29pm Oct 23, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting fxtyrant
And then HERE is the reason why one should NEVER try to trade a pullback and in this case entering a Long near the lows (thinking it is the low of the day) because EVEN a confirmed bullish divergence comes up.... you are still trading agains tthe trend, so Typical People who would've longed it as i tell them a confirmed Bullish Divergence in a Bear Trend would have their Stop Loss Hit just now...

So there... Hopefully the this post and the last post have identified how STUPID it is to long a pull back...
Thatswhy i stick by my rule... I wait...
Where is the bearish div I dont see it your trades were underwater normally you have an exit plan other than blindly hoping the trend comes back in your favour... easy way to lose that way say if large players stepped in and pushed it up a hundred pips on speculation.
  • #54,469
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:30pm Oct 23, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting fxtyrant
So now you are Hoping on News?? pathetic, buddy like i said even if its gona pull back i am ready to have my trigger finger on the Sell Button around 1.03, perhaps time you learnt your lesson? btw do you still think GOLD is giong up?? please...
I look at the charts.... Not hoping on news... perhaps time you do the same?
Same way you "hope" that your underwater shorts will come back instead of taking your shirt?

Watch and learn... you idiot I said that you should be buying at every bear target on gold with tight SL... the bulls are back in gold look at the past few months... this is THE retrace. Last few bear targets were met with entries at BE... nothing lost with $3 risked each time.

You're just a little kid what do you know
  • #54,470
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:34pm Oct 23, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting sidhujag
Same way you "hope" that your underwater shorts will come back instead of taking your shirt?

Watch and learn... you idiot I said that you should be buying at every bear target on gold with tight SL... the bulls are back in gold look at the past few months... this is THE retrace. Last few bear targets were met with entries at BE... nothing lost with $3 risked each time.
YOu know what?? we'll see if its gona come back or not dumb one.... elements of trend tradign suggests the bottom will be tested AGAIN, so we shall see...
meantime My trading is still Flying high
Perhaps you should have a look at my trades before making any dumb questions? those AUDUSD trades are just small sized ones as i attempt an early entry on a pullback....

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxty...nt-ma-1/392767

Also to answer to your request... Here is your Bearish Divergence this one on a Daily Chart... Notice when the divergence Happens EMA55 (blue ema) is above the EMA200 (red ema), so the divergence is a valid one and a powerful driving one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 21 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,471
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:40pm Oct 23, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting sidhujag
Same way you "hope" that your underwater shorts will come back instead of taking your shirt?

Watch and learn... you idiot I said that you should be buying at every bear target on gold with tight SL... the bulls are back in gold look at the past few months... this is THE retrace. Last few bear targets were met with entries at BE... nothing lost with $3 risked each time.

You're just a little kid what do you know
Don't even waste your breath with this kid. He is arrogant, confrontational, condescending, and threatens to ban people "should he feel the need to" as he has that authority.

He will learn soon enough that he is not always right, and when he does let's see how he handles it. When I'm wrong I pay for it with a major loss, not some measly $500 account.

He doesn't understand that FOREX is a market that nobody will ever fully understand and looks down on others with opposing views, it doesn't help others when you talk down on them.

FxTyrant, you may "know your stuff" but your presentation is what you need to work on. Enough with the name calling, swearing, confrontational, condescending tone man. You definitely lack class man... It shows through your posts and I'm positive that anybody who reads what you post can agree with what I'm saying.

I may not always be right, but I treat others with respect, its unfortunate that you can't say the same for yourself. By the way, I probalby won't be posting much over here as I don't need the additional headache listening to some punky kid like FxTyrant while I'm trying to make money trading...
  • #54,472
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:45pm Oct 23, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting fxtyrant
YOu know what?? we'll see if its gona come back or not dumb one.... elements of trend tradign suggests the bottom will be tested AGAIN, so we shall see...
meantime My trading is still Flying high
Perhaps you should have a look at my trades before making any dumb questions? those AUDUSD trades are just small sized ones as i attempt an early entry on a pullback....

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxty...nt-ma-1/392767

Also to answer to your request... Here is your Bearish Divergence this one on a Daily Chart... Notice...
LOL learn to read divergences, to me that's insignificant the top is what I look at and that is NOT a bearish divergence... as far as I can see your still underwater gluck kiddo!

Come back after next quarter and we will see how much your smiling with your kindergarten analysis.

You wanna see bearish div? 1.06xx was a valid bearish div... try again.
  • #54,473
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:45pm Oct 23, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Don't even waste your breath with this kid. He is arrogant, confrontational, condescending, and threatens to ban people "should he feel the need to" as he has that authority.

He will learn soon enough that he is not always right, and when he does let's see how he handles it. When I'm wrong I pay for it with a major loss, not some measly $500 account.

He doesn't understand that FOREX is a market that nobody will ever fully understand and looks down on others with opposing views, it doesn't help others when you talk down on them.

FxTyrant,...

Agree
  • #54,474
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:48pm Oct 23, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Don't even waste your breath with this kid. He is arrogant, confrontational, condescending, and threatens to ban people "should he feel the need to" as he has that authority.

He will learn soon enough that he is not always right, and when he does let's see how he handles it. When I'm wrong I pay for it with a major loss, not some measly $500 account.

He doesn't understand that FOREX is a market that nobody will ever fully understand and looks down on others with opposing views, it doesn't help others when you talk down on them.

[b]FxTyrant,...
Honestly i dont care what people think about me... and you know what? life's a bitch! until you learn to cope with it, you'll never succeed, i dont care if i lack class.

Also, I bid you farewell, but i got to say, you leaving? im not gona miss you so no point saying how you are gona reduce posting here... actually its good too.... you could reduce the bad calls you make.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,475
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:49pm Oct 23, 2012 1:49pm
Arguing is not my style as I let my losses or profits determine IF I AM WRONG IN MY THESIS.

For the Bulls:
China numbers could help
S&P could be at the bottom of the Range in the retracement

FOR The Bears:
The rate cut is coming again
RBA wants and welcomes a lower exchange rate
Technical s below points lower if we close below 1.02369 JUNE MONTHLY CLOSE

I know why I am short AUD/USD AUSTRALIA as a whole and the variables are far more than just the RBA interest rates or the mining boom/peak and If it does not materialize I am out.

I welcome both sides of the argument because it makes me go to the drawing board and look for holes in my short argument.


Obviously the last red bar thrust down is just my wet dream and has not materialized yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-23-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 168 KB
  • #54,476
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:50pm Oct 23, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Don't even waste your breath with this kid. He is arrogant, confrontational, condescending, and threatens to ban people "should he feel the need to" as he has that authority.

He will learn soon enough that he is not always right, and when he does let's see how he handles it. When I'm wrong I pay for it with a major loss, not some measly $500 account.

He doesn't understand that FOREX is a market that nobody will ever fully understand and looks down on others with opposing views, it doesn't help others when you talk down on them.

FxTyrant,...
Lol lack of age to be humble its a normal thing... I like to pick on the kids when you can tell so easily. Maybe teach them a few things or two in the process. To the people who are here to help others win, I will go out of my way for you, to the others I wouldn't give them a rope in a ditch let alone a helping hand.
  • #54,477
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:50pm Oct 23, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting sidhujag
LOL learn to read divergences, to me that's insignificant the top is what I look at and that is NOT a bearish divergence... as far as I can see your still underwater gluck kiddo!

Come back after next quarter and we will see how much your smiling with your kindergarten analysis.

You wanna see bearish div? 1.06xx was a valid bearish div... try again.
Unfortunately my analysis works for me.... and them kindergarten analysis you talk about is churning up good gains, and good calls too....
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/fxty...nt-ma-1/392767
Have a look... Nuff said...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,478
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:55pm Oct 23, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting jplazard
Arguing is not my style as I let my losses or profits determine IF I AM WRONG IN MY THESIS.

For the Bulls:
China numbers could help
S&P could be at the bottom of the Range in the retracement

FOR The Bears:
The rate cut is coming again
RBA wants and welcomes a lower exchange rate
Technical s below points lower if we close below 1.02369 JUNE MONTHLY CLOSE

I know why I am short AUD/USD AUSTRALIA as a whole and the variables are far more than just the RBA interest rates or the mining boom/peak and If it does not materialize I am out.

I welcome...
Great reply.
I'm long here,i like the RR,
would like to see it close around 1.0270 tonight
to give it a chance to move higher,if not so what,
every trades nothing more than a 50/50 bet.
PA can always fail.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: w3.jpg Size: 73 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #54,479
  • Oct 23, 2012 1:58pm Oct 23, 2012 1:58pm
The Divergence sidhujag talked about on AUDUSD 1.06xx is here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily 1.gif Size: 20 KB


But it doesnt make this divergence any less true...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 20 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,480
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:02pm Oct 23, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting jplazard
Arguing is not my style as I let my losses or profits determine IF I AM WRONG IN MY THESIS.

For the Bulls:
China numbers could help
S&P could be at the bottom of the Range in the retracement

FOR The Bears:
The rate cut is coming again
RBA wants and welcomes a lower exchange rate
Technical s below points lower if we close below 1.02369 JUNE MONTHLY CLOSE

I know why I am short AUD/USD AUSTRALIA as a whole and the variables are far more than just the RBA interest rates or the mining boom/peak and If it does not materialize I am out.

I...
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
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